Latest Iran Protests Likely Not Last for Tehran

In this photo taken by an individual not employed by The Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran, protesters chant slogans during a protest over the death of a woman who was detained by the morality police, in downtown Tehran, Iran, Sept. 21, 2022. (AP)
In this photo taken by an individual not employed by The Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran, protesters chant slogans during a protest over the death of a woman who was detained by the morality police, in downtown Tehran, Iran, Sept. 21, 2022. (AP)
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Latest Iran Protests Likely Not Last for Tehran

In this photo taken by an individual not employed by The Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran, protesters chant slogans during a protest over the death of a woman who was detained by the morality police, in downtown Tehran, Iran, Sept. 21, 2022. (AP)
In this photo taken by an individual not employed by The Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran, protesters chant slogans during a protest over the death of a woman who was detained by the morality police, in downtown Tehran, Iran, Sept. 21, 2022. (AP)

Only glimpses of videos that make it online show the protests convulsing Iran over the death of a 22-year-old woman who had been detained by the nation's morality police.

But those flashes show that public anger across the country, once only simmering, is now boiling.

The demonstrations surrounding the death of Mahsa Amini — and the government crackdown emerging to stifle them — represent just the latest cycle of unrest to grip Iran since its 1979 revolution.

It likely won't be the last as the country lurches between crises at home and abroad. The window through which the wider world can view them only will become more dim as authorities restrict internet access, detain journalists and tightly control all levers of the government's power.

Protests over Amini's death have spread across at least 46 Iranian cities, towns and villages. State TV has suggested that at least 41 protesters and police have been killed since the protests began Sept. 17. An Associated Press count of official statements by authorities puts the death toll at at least 13, with more than 1,200 demonstrators arrested.

But the tightening crackdown doesn't come as a surprise given Iran's modern history.

Iran's theocracy has viewed itself as under threat from the moment the late Khomeini returned to Tehran in 1979.

Bombings in 1981 blamed on dissidents killed dozens of top officials. One even paralyzed the right arm of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iraq’s Saddam Hussein launched a bloody eight-year war on Iran in which 1 million people were killed.

In Tehran, enmity toward the United States began with the American-backed 1953 coup that cemented the shah's reign. For Washington, the 1979 US Embassy hostage crisis stoked hostility toward Iran.

And the mutual distrust continues today. After the collapse of a deal in 2015 intended to curtail Tehran's nuclear ambitions, Iran amassed enough highly enriched uranium to produce an atomic bomb if it chose.

The Iranian government has dismissed the latest protests as a foreign plot, rather than an expression of public outrage over the death of a woman detained only because her mandatory headscarf, or hijab, wasn't to the morality police's liking.

Pro-government marches in Tehran and other cities echoed the official line.

The government's decision to restrict Instagram, LinkedIn and WhatsApp — three of the last Western social media apps working in the country — has limited the ability for protesters to organize and share their videos with the outside world.

Instead, only short clips find their way out, including those of security forces firing at protesters and women defiantly cutting off their hair and burning their hijabs. Security forces, including motorcycle-riding volunteers with Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, have attacked peaceful demonstrators.

There's also been footage of apparent demonstrators setting fires, flipping over police cars and fighting back against riot police.

These scenes are similar to those that occurred in 2019 after the government dropped fuel subsidies, prompting demonstrators to set gas stations ablaze and ransack banks. Rights groups say that the unrest across more than 100 cities and towns — and the government crackdown that followed — killed over 300 people and led to thousands of arrests.

Because of the internet restrictions, it remains unclear if the latest protests have eclipsed those of 2019. Exiled opposition groups and Iranian hard-liners have both used the short clips online to paint their own pictures of the unrest as the government largely remains silent.

Independent observers such as human rights activists face threats, intimidation and arrest in Iran. Text messages from the government to the public warn of criminal charges for joining demonstrations. At least 18 reporters are known to have been arrested so far in the crackdown, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

Like other rounds of unrest since 2009, when millions took to the streets as part of the so-called Green Movement to protest a disputed presidential election, the latest demonstrations appear spontaneous and leaderless.

Even if a government crackdown eventually quells the protests, it likely won't eradicate the deep-seated rage.

Iran's economy has cratered, and Western sanctions have destroyed the savings of a generation. The value of the currency has plummeted, from 32,000 rials for a dollar in 2015 to 315,000 rials for a dollar in 2022. Iranian youth increasingly try to find new livelihoods abroad at whatever cost. Those left behind struggle to make ends meet.

Iranian politics have grown insular and uncompromising. In the 2021 presidential election, all serious contenders were disqualified to allow Ebrahim Raisi, a protege of Khamenei, to take the presidency in the lowest turnout vote in the republic's history.

The economic challenges and hardline political positions are only likely to solidify. Even if Iran agreed to a roadmap to restore the nuclear deal, it likely will face new US sanctions over selling so-called suicide drones to Russia to use in its ongoing war in Ukraine.

A battle over leadership could turn Iran's focus further inward. There is no designated successor for the 83-year-old Khamenei, though some analysts suggest his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, might be considered by clerics to become the next supreme leader.

Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guard, which answers only to the supreme leader, has grown increasingly powerful both militarily and economically during the recent tensions with the West. The US Treasury said the Guard has smuggled “hundreds of millions of dollars” worth of sanctioned oil into the international market.

Both the theocracy and the Guard have financial and political incentive to continue the status quo. And with no other outlets, mass protests by the Iranian public seem likely to continue.



Russia Skirts Western Sanctions to Ramp up Its Military Footprint in Africa 

This satellite image provided by Planet Labs PBC shows trucks lined up on a dock as the Russian-flagged cargo ship, Siyanie Severa, unloads its cargo, May 29, 2025, in Bata, Equatorial Guinea. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
This satellite image provided by Planet Labs PBC shows trucks lined up on a dock as the Russian-flagged cargo ship, Siyanie Severa, unloads its cargo, May 29, 2025, in Bata, Equatorial Guinea. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
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Russia Skirts Western Sanctions to Ramp up Its Military Footprint in Africa 

This satellite image provided by Planet Labs PBC shows trucks lined up on a dock as the Russian-flagged cargo ship, Siyanie Severa, unloads its cargo, May 29, 2025, in Bata, Equatorial Guinea. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
This satellite image provided by Planet Labs PBC shows trucks lined up on a dock as the Russian-flagged cargo ship, Siyanie Severa, unloads its cargo, May 29, 2025, in Bata, Equatorial Guinea. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

Even as it pounds Ukraine, Russia is expanding its military footprint in Africa, delivering sophisticated weaponry to sub-Saharan conflict zones where a Kremlin-controlled armed force is on the rise. Skirting sanctions imposed by Western nations, Moscow is using cargo ships to send tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and other high-value equipment to West Africa, The Associated Press has found.

Relying on satellite imagery and radio signals, AP tracked a convoy of Russian-flagged cargo ships as they made a nearly one-month journey from the Baltic Sea. The ships carried howitzers, radio jamming equipment and other military hardware, according to military officials in Europe who closely monitored them. The deliveries could strengthen Russia’s fledgling Africa Corps as Moscow competes with the United States, Europe and China for greater influence across the continent.

The two-year-old Africa Corps, which has links to a covert branch of Russia’s army, is ascendant at a time when US and European troops have been withdrawing from the region, forced out by sub-Saharan nations turning to Russia for security.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have been battling fighters linked with al-Qaeda and the ISIS group for more than a decade.

At first, mercenary groups with an arms-length relationship to the Kremlin entered the fray in Africa. But increasingly, Russia is deploying its military might, and intelligence services, more directly.

"We intend to expand our cooperation with African countries in all spheres, with an emphasis on economic cooperation and investments," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "This cooperation includes sensitive areas linked to defense and security."

From the ports, Russian weapons are trucked to Mali Russia's 8,800-ton Baltic Leader and 5,800-ton Patria are among hundreds of ships that Western nations have sanctioned to choke off resources for Russia's war in Ukraine. The ships docked and unloaded in Conakry, Guinea, in late May, AP satellite images showed.

Other ships made deliveries to the same port in January. They delivered tanks, armored vehicles and other hardware that was then trucked overland to neighboring Mali, according to European military officials and a Malian blogger's video of the long convoy.

The military officials spoke to AP about Russian operations on condition of anonymity. The AP verified the blogger's video, geolocating it to the RN5 highway leading into Bamako, the Malian capital.

After the latest delivery in Conakry, trucks carrying Russian-made armored vehicles, howitzers and other equipment were again spotted on the overland route to Mali.

Malian broadcaster ORTM confirmed that the West African nation's army took delivery of new military equipment. AP analysis of its video and images filmed by the Malian blogger in the same spot as the January delivery identified a broad array of Russian-made hardware, including 152 mm artillery guns and other smaller canons.

AP also identified a wheeled, BTR-80 armored troop carrier with radio-jamming equipment, as well as Spartak armored vehicles and other armored carriers, some mounted with guns. The shipment also included at least two semi-inflatable small boats, one with a Russian flag painted on its hull, as well as tanker trucks, some marked "inflammable" in Russian on their sides.

The military officials who spoke to AP said they believe Russia has earmarked the most potent equipment — notably the artillery and jamming equipment — for its Africa Corps, not Malian armed forces. Africa Corps appears to have been given air power, too, with satellites spotting at least one Su-24 fighter-bomber at a Bamako air base in recent months.

Moscow's notorious secret unit

For years, French forces supported counterinsurgency operations in Mali and neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. But France pulled out its troops after coups in Mali in 2020 and 2021, in Burkina Faso in 2022 and Niger in 2023. Russian mercenaries stepped into the vacuum.

Wagner Group, the most notable, deployed to Sudan in 2017 and expanded to other African countries, often in exchange for mining concessions.

It earned a reputation for brutality, accused by Western countries and UN experts of human rights abuses, including in Central African Republic, Libya and Mali.

Of 33 African countries in which Russian military contractors were active, the majority were Wagner-controlled, according to US government-sponsored research by RAND.

But after Wagner forces mutinied in Russia in 2023 and their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was killed two months later in a suspicious plane crash, Moscow tightened its grip. Russian military operations in Africa were restructured, with the Kremlin taking greater control through Africa Corps.

It is overseen by the commander of Unit 29155, one of the most notorious branches of Russia’s shadowy GRU military intelligence service, according to the European Union. Unit 29155 has been accused of covertly attacking Western interests for years, including through sabotage and assassination attempts.

The EU in December targeted Unit 29155 Maj. Gen. Andrey Averyanov with sanctions, alleging that he is in charge of Africa Corps operations.

"In many African countries, Russian forces provide security to military juntas that have overthrown legitimate democratic governments, gravely worsening the stability, security and democracy of the countries," the EU sanctions ruling said. These operations are financed by exploiting the continent's natural resources, the ruling added.

The Russian Ministry of Defense didn’t immediately respond to questions about Averyanov’s role in Africa Corps.

Africa Corps recruitment

Researchers and military officials say the flow of weapons from Russia appears to be speeding Africa Corps’ ascendancy over Wagner, helping it win over mercenaries that have remained loyal to the group. Africa Corps is also recruiting in Russia, offering payments of up to 2.1 million rubles ($26,500), and even plots of land, for signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense, plus more on deployment.

Within days of the latest equipment delivery, Wagner announced its withdrawal from Mali, declaring "mission accomplished" in a Telegram post.

Africa Corps said in a separate post that it would remain.

The changeover from Wagner to Africa Corps in Mali could be a forerunner for other similar transitions elsewhere on the continent, said Julia Stanyard, a researcher of Russian mercenary activity in Africa.

"Bringing in this sort of brand-new sophisticated weaponry, and new armored vehicles and that sort of thing, is quite a bit of a shift," said Stanyard, of the Switzerland-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.

Armed groups in Mali have inflicted heavy losses on Malian troops and Russian mercenaries. The al-Qaeda linked group JNIM killed dozens of soldiers in an attack this month on a military base. Insurgents also killed dozens of Wagner mercenaries in northern Mali last July.