Stocks and Oil Drop as Dollar Gains on Recession, Ukraine Fears

Kremlin-backed officials in four regions under Russian control have claimed victory in controversial annexation votes, spooking investors STRINGER AFP
Kremlin-backed officials in four regions under Russian control have claimed victory in controversial annexation votes, spooking investors STRINGER AFP
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Stocks and Oil Drop as Dollar Gains on Recession, Ukraine Fears

Kremlin-backed officials in four regions under Russian control have claimed victory in controversial annexation votes, spooking investors STRINGER AFP
Kremlin-backed officials in four regions under Russian control have claimed victory in controversial annexation votes, spooking investors STRINGER AFP

Equities and crude prices fell, while the dollar held at multi-year highs Wednesday as recession fears mount, while traders are also growing increasingly concerned about tensions with Russia after it declared victory in controversial Ukraine annexation polls.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on London, after new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng's tax-cutting mini-budget last week sent shock waves through markets, pushing the pound to a record low and leading to dire warnings for Britain's economy, AFP said.

While Asia saw small gains Tuesday, New York and Europe ended mostly in the red again, with Wall Street jolted by data showing a surprise improvement in US consumer confidence -- likely because of a dip in petrol prices -- and a jump in home sales.

The figures pointed to resilience in the world's top economy despite three successive bumper Federal Reserve rate hikes -- and expectations for another in November -- as it tries to tame four-decade-high inflation.

Several Fed officials have lined up this week to reassert their determination to keep hiking until prices are brought under control, even at the cost of a recession.

Observers are now betting that borrowing costs will top out at around 4.75 percent next year, and some policymakers have suggested they could remain elevated for some time.

The prospect of such tight monetary policy has battered equities, as US 10-year Treasury yields -- a gauge of future rates -- approach four percent for the first time since 2010.

The Dow and S&P 500 ended down Tuesday, though the Nasdaq enjoyed a slight uptick.

Asia resumed its downtrend, with Tokyo, Hong Kong and Seoul all down more than two percent, while Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta were also off.

- Russia nuclear warning -
And the dollar remains the go-to unit as the Fed leads the way in central bank tightening.

"The fact we have such a strong increase in US yields is attracting flows into the US dollar," said Nannette Hechler-Fayd'herbe, of Credit Suisse Group AG.

"As long as monetary and fiscal policy worldwide are really not coming to strengthen their own currencies, we should be anticipating a very strong dollar."

The greenback rose against sterling, with the British currency battered by concerns that Kwarteng's spending plan would ramp up borrowing just as the Band of England was trying to hike rates to fight inflation, causing consternation among many observers.

The dollar was also approaching 145 yen, having sunk from a high close to 146 yen after the Japanese government intervened last week to support its currency.

Sentiment was also rattled by worries about developments in Ukraine, after Kremlin-installed authorities in four regions under Russian control claimed victory in annexation votes, with Moscow warning it could use nuclear weapons to defend the territories.

Ukraine and its allies have denounced the so-called referendums as a sham, saying the West would never recognize the results of the ballots.

But former Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev -- an ally of President Vladimir Putin and now deputy chairman of the country's security council -- issued a stark warning that Moscow was ready to act decisively.

"I want to remind you -- the deaf who hear only themselves: Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons if necessary," he said on social media.

On crude markets both main contracts were down more than one percent on recession worries and as Bloomberg quoted sources as saying that US inventories increased more than four million barrels last week.

The drop comes despite a report that Moscow is calling on OPEC and other major groups to slash output by a million barrels a day when they meet next week.

- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 2.2 percent at 25,984.51 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 2.4 percent at 17,433.43

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.8 percent at 3,069.22

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.0663 from $1.0730 on Tuesday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $0.9551 from $0.9595

Euro/pound: UP at 89.71 pence from 89.39 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 144.83 yen from 144.81 yen

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.9 percent at $76.99 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 1.9 percent at $84.67 per barrel

New York - Dow: DOWN 0.4 percent at 29,134.99 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.5 percent at 6,984.59 (close)



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.