Saudi Arabia Expects Sustainable Surplus Budgets until 2025

The Ministry of Finance disclosed estimates of Saudi budgets with sustainable surpluses until 2025. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Ministry of Finance disclosed estimates of Saudi budgets with sustainable surpluses until 2025. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Expects Sustainable Surplus Budgets until 2025

The Ministry of Finance disclosed estimates of Saudi budgets with sustainable surpluses until 2025. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Ministry of Finance disclosed estimates of Saudi budgets with sustainable surpluses until 2025. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Saudi Ministry of Finance disclosed estimates of its budgets until 2025, showing positive trends and expectations of sustainable financial surpluses during the medium term.

The preliminary statement of the state’s general budget for the fiscal year 2023 expected total expenditures to reach about 1.11 billion riyals ($296 billion), and total revenues about 1.12 billion riyals ($298 billion), to achieve surpluses of around 9 billion riyals, representing 0.2 percent of GDP.

Saudi Arabia is planning to achieve an estimated billion increase in the budget for the current year 2022, exceeding 90 billion riyals ($24 billion), thus recording the first actual budget surplus in nearly a decade.

The Ministry of Finance justified its positive estimates for the coming years by citing continuous work to raise the efficiency and effectiveness of spending and financial control and the implementation of economic and financial reforms within Vision 2030, as well as promoting the growth of local investment by building partnerships with the private sector.

Minister of Finance Mohammad Al-Jadaan pointed to the development of the public finance structure in the Kingdom during the past years, stressing that the government succeeded in achieving the main objective of the first phase of financial reforms, under the name of the Fiscal Balance Program, which aimed to control high deficit rates to reach financial balance on the medium term.

The minister added that the second phase was launched under the name of the Financial Sustainability Program, which aims, in the medium and long term, to maintain sustainable financial indicators.

Al-Jadaan added that despite the difficult geopolitical and economic conditions the world is witnessing and the global economic slowdown, the strength and durability of the Saudi economy enabled the Kingdom to overcome all the challenges.

He explained: “The decline in growth rates during the pandemic was limited, compared to the countries of the world, followed by a positive growth of 3.2 percent in 2021, and high growth rates during the first half of 2022, the highest in more than ten years.”

“This is a reflection of many structural reforms and sectoral strategies within the Kingdom's Vision 2030,” he added.

The Saudi minister of Finance pointed out that the positive expectations of the Saudi economy for the year 2023 were an extension of the positive developments in actual performance during the first half of 2022.

Preliminary estimates point to real GDP growth of 3.1 percent in 2023, he underlined.

Al-Jadaan noted, however, that despite the expectations of achieving surpluses in the 2023 budget, the government will maintain domestic and international borrowing operations, with the aim of repaying the principal debt due during 2023, and in the medium term, and exploiting opportunities available according to market conditions to proactively implement additional financing operations.

The preliminary statement of the Saudi budget expected that the total revenues for the year 2023 would amount to about 1,123 billion riyals ($299.4 billion), reaching about 1205 billion riyals ($321.3 billion) in 2025.

The total expenditures for 2023 are expected to reach 1,114 billion riyals ($297 billion), and 1134 billion riyals ($302.4 billion) in 2025.



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.