'Transformation' Beckons for Embattled Credit Suisse

A sign of Switzerland's second largest bank Credit Suisse on a branch's building in downtown Geneva in a file photo from November 4, 2020. Fabrice Coffrini, AFP
A sign of Switzerland's second largest bank Credit Suisse on a branch's building in downtown Geneva in a file photo from November 4, 2020. Fabrice Coffrini, AFP
TT

'Transformation' Beckons for Embattled Credit Suisse

A sign of Switzerland's second largest bank Credit Suisse on a branch's building in downtown Geneva in a file photo from November 4, 2020. Fabrice Coffrini, AFP
A sign of Switzerland's second largest bank Credit Suisse on a branch's building in downtown Geneva in a file photo from November 4, 2020. Fabrice Coffrini, AFP

Battered by a series of scandals, rumors of financial trouble and plunging shares, Credit Suisse is preparing "transformation plans" to restore confidence in the Swiss banking giant.

Ulrich Koerner, who took over as chief executive in August, is due to present the strategic review on October 27, AFP said.

With Switzerland's second-biggest bank refraining from revealing its intentions, speculation about its incoming strategy has been swirling.

- Divest or raise capital? -Andreas Venditti, an analyst at Swiss investment firm Vontobel, said "a capital increase appears increasingly likely" for Credit Suisse.

In a note to clients, Venditti estimates that amount needed at four billion Swiss francs ($4 billion).

Investors fear that such a move would dilute the value of bank shares.

Its stock price has shed 70 percent since the March 2021 collapse of British financial firm Greensill. Credit Suisse was heavily exposed to the group.

Carlo Lombardini, a lawyer and professor of banking law at the University of Lausanne, said a capital injection would leave a "bitter taste" for shareholders.

"But they probably don't have a choice," Lombardini told AFP.

The bank will have to raise funds from shareholders to finance layoffs and the cost of restructuring, he said.

Another option would be for the bank to sell assets.

"It's a tough choice," said David Benamou, investment director at Axiom Alternative Investments, noting that it would hurt the bank's future revenues.

"Market conditions are tight and a seller who is forced to sell usually does not get a favorable price," Benamou said.

Analysts at Jefferies, a financial services firm, said "asset sales alone are unlikely to be the solution to the potential capital shortfall problem".

But, they added, it "could be a first step and buy time until shares recover and the outlook gets better, at which time a capital raise, if needed, would be a less dilutive and more acceptable option".

- Is it a takeover target? -Credit Suisse shares have rebounded after sinking to a record low of 3.518 Swiss francs on Monday, showing that markets are giving it "a chance to put together a solid plan", said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote bank.

With its market value melting by 10 billion Swiss francs earlier this week, Credit Suisse became "a very attractive target for banks that would like to buy a nice wealth management branch", said Benamou.

But Credit Suisse has the means to remain independent, he said, and any bid could face political resistance.

"I think the Swiss want Credit Suisse to remain Swiss," Benamou said.

- Is it a 'Lehman moment'? -In addition to the $10 billion exposure to Greensill, the implosion of US fund Archegos cost Credit Suisse $5 billion.

On top of that, Credit Suisse was fined $475 million by US and British authorities in October over loans to state-owned companies in Mozambique.

Koerner, who took the reins in August with the mammoth task of revitalizing the bank, sent an internal message to reassure staff last week, saying Credit Suisse had a "strong capital base and liquidity position".

But investors concerns reached fever pitch last weekend with rumors on social media that the bank may be on the brink of a "Lehman moment" -- a reference to the US investment firm whose disintegration precipitated the 2008 global financial crisis.

This triggered Monday's stock plunge as well as an increase in the cost of buying insurance against Credit Suisse defaulting on its debt.

Analysts, however, have played down concerns that the Swiss bank could follow in the footsteps of Lehman Brothers, stressing that it was "too big to fail" and the government would not let it to collapse.

The Swiss government rescued Credit Suisse rival UBS in 2008 when it teamed up with the central bank to set up a fund that absorbed the group's toxic assets.

Benamou said a state intervention for Credit Suisse was unlikely as banks have been required to put aside enough cash to withstand a new crisis following the 2008 financial shock.

In an effort to reassure markets, Credit Suisse announced plans on Friday to buy back up to $3 billion of debt.



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
TT

Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
TT

IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
TT

World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.