IMF Confirms Saudi Economy’s Growth Forecast in Coming Years

Saudi economy continues to grow and maintains IMF predictions (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi economy continues to grow and maintains IMF predictions (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF Confirms Saudi Economy’s Growth Forecast in Coming Years

Saudi economy continues to grow and maintains IMF predictions (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi economy continues to grow and maintains IMF predictions (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed its economic growth forecast for Saudi Arabia for the current year at 7.6 percent, the exact forecasts for July and April.

Earlier, the Fund increased its expectations twice for the Saudi economy in 2022, making the Kingdom the only country among the G20 whose growth expectations have been raised twice.

The Kingdom's 2023 predictions remained unchanged at 3.7 percent growth year-on-year.

The IMF predicts that the inflation rate for the consumer price index in Saudi Arabia will reach 2.7 percent this year, compared to 3.1 percent in 2021, and the inflation rate is expected to slow down to 2.2 percent in 2023.

According to the IMF's growth predictions, Saudi Arabia remained at a 7.6 percent output increase in 2022, with a 3.7 percent output increase the following year.

Saudi Arabia's real gross domestic product is forecast to rise 3.4 percent annually by the end of this year to reach 7.6 percent, showed the IMF data.

The Fund confirmed that Saudi Arabia could contain the inflation, despite the high prices of imported goods, pointing out that inflation in the Kingdom will remain limited to 2.8 percent during the current year.

Earlier, Saudi Arabia concluded a memorandum of understanding with the IMF to establish a regional office in Riyadh, which would boost its presence in the region and provide its economic recommendations to the countries of the Gulf and the region.

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan signed the MoU with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Riyadh. Several Gulf finance ministers and officials were present at the event.

Georgieva’s meeting with the Saudi ministers and officials tackled opportunities to address the food insecurity that has had consequences on the economies of some countries.

Georgieva said her meeting with the ministers tackled global issues and was instrumental in further deepening the cooperation between the IMF and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, especially in responding to the global series of shocks, including food insecurity.

She added that the talks focused on the importance of achieving sustainability, diversifying income sources, and weighing other countries' aid needs.

Georgieva stressed that Saudi Arabia would become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, noting that maintaining the reform momentum to diversify the economy further will be pivotal for longer-term prosperity.



Dollar Set to End Week on a High on US Rates, Economic Outlook

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Set to End Week on a High on US Rates, Economic Outlook

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar was on track for its strongest weekly performance since early December on Friday, propped up by expectations that the US economy will continue to outperform its peers globally this year and US interest rates will stay elevated for longer.

The greenback began the new year on a strong note, reaching a more than two-year high of 109.54 against a basket of currencies on Thursday as it extended a stellar rally from last year. A more hawkish Fed and a resilient US economy have led US Treasury yields to rise, prompting the dollar to charge higher.

Coupled with expectations that policies by US President-elect Donald Trump will boost growth this year and potentially add to price pressures, the dollar now looks relentless.

"Looks like dollar strength is here to stay for now in early 2025 given the US exceptionalism story is here to stay, and it still comes with high US yields," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, Reuters reported.

"Add to that the uncertainty from policies of the incoming (Donald) Trump administration, and you also get the safety aspect of the dollar looking attractive." Uncertainties over how Trump's plans for hefty import tariffs, tax cuts and immigration restrictions will affect global markets has in turn given the greenback additional safe haven support. Jobless claims data on Thursday confirmed a resilient US labor market, with the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropping to an eight-month low last week. The dollar index last stood at 109, down 0.2% on the day, but on track for a weekly gain of just under 1%, its strongest since early December.

Other currencies attempted to rebound against the firm dollar on Friday, still tracking steep losses on the week. The euro was last up 0.28% at $1.02950 but was headed for a 1.3% weekly decline, its worst since November.

The common currency was among the biggest losers against a towering dollar, having tumbled 0.86% in the previous session to a more than two-year low of $1.022475.

Traders are pricing in more than 100 basis points worth of rate cuts from the European Central Bank next year, while they expect just about 45 bps of easing from the Fed.

Uncertainties around trade policies of the incoming Trump administration are also weighing on the outlook for the euro looking ahead, along with China's yuan and some other emerging market currencies.

"We expect Trump's policy mix to trigger further dollar strengthening, with European currencies – and the euro in particular – coming under pressure from protectionism and monetary easing," said ING analysts in a note. Similarly, sterling ticked up 0.22% to $1.24065, after sliding 1.16% on Thursday. It was on track to lose roughly 1.4% for the week. Elsewhere, the yen rose around 0.24% to 157.085 per dollar, but was not far from an over five-month low of 158.09 per dollar hit in December. The Japanese currency has been a victim of the stark interest rate differential between the US and Japan for over two years now, with the Bank of Japan's caution over further rate increases spelling more pain for the yen.

The yen tumbled more than 10% in 2024, extending its losses into a fourth straight year. China's onshore yuan hit its weakest level in over a year at 7.3190 per dollar, as falling yields and expectations of more domestic rate cuts continued to weigh on the currency.