What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
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What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)

Iraqi lawmakers have elected a new president who swiftly named a prime minister in the hope of ending a year of political gridlock and deadly violence.

But major challenges lie ahead for the crisis-hit nation.

How will government talks play out?

Iraq's parliament, dominated by the pro-Iran Coordination Framework of Shiite factions, elected on Thursday a new president, 78-year-old Kurdish former minister Abdul Latif Rashid.

The new head of state moved immediately to task Shiite politician Mohammad Shia al-Sudani with forming a government, capping a whole year of deadlock between major parties since Iraq last went to the polls in October 2021.

In multi-ethnic, multi-confessional Iraq, where political alliances and coalitions constantly shift, divisions between feuding factions might resurface and complicate Sudani's efforts in the 30 days afforded to him to form a government capable of commanding a majority in parliament.

In the past, constitutional deadlines have been routinely missed amid protracted political wrangling.

"Once we start discussing who becomes minister, but even more critically who gains more leverage over the senior civil service, government agencies, state coffers -- that's when we will continue to see the fragmentation and stalemate play out," said Renad Mansour of British think-tank Chatham House.

He explained that Iraq is headed for "another power-sharing government", where political parties will "try and divide the country's wealth".

And the stakes are high. A colossal $87 billion in revenues from oil exports are locked up in the central bank's coffers.

The money can help rebuild infrastructure in the war-ravaged country, but it can only be invested after lawmakers approve a state budget presented by the government, once formed.

What will Sadr do?

The future government's hands may be tied by influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, capable of mobilizing tens of thousands of his supporters with a single tweet.

In June, he had ordered the 73 lawmakers in his bloc to resign, leaving parliament in the hands of the rival Coordination Framework, which now controls 138 out of 329 seats in the legislature.

This pro-Iranian alliance includes the political arm of the former paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as well as Sadr's longtime rival, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Political analyst Ali al-Baidar noted the Sadrist movement has kept uncharacteristically "quiet".

It may be that their leader has been "giving the political forces a chance", but it could also be the result of "an agreement offering the movement some" government positions in return for their tacit approval of Sudani's nomination, Baidar said.

Tensions between the two rival Shiite camps boiled over on August 29 when more than 30 Sadr supporters were killed in clashes with Iran-backed factions and the army in Baghdad's Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions.

"It remains a precarious state of affairs," Mansour said.

"Sadr will remain on the margins of the political scene, trying to disrupt and use protests to replace the political capital" he lost in parliament, the researcher added.

Sadr is "hoping to force an early election using controlled instability as he always has, to maintain his power and leverage in negotiations.

"But mistakes in the past few months have... put him in a difficult bargaining position," Mansour continued.

Is there hope for change?

Political analyst Baidar said the "consensus" on Rashid's appointment means a government will be formed relatively easily, but stressed the "colossal tasks" ahead.

Nearly four out of 10 young Iraqis are unemployed and one-third of the oil-rich country's population of 42 million lives in poverty, according to the United Nations.

Prime minister-designate Sudani vowed on Thursday to push through "economic reforms" that would revitalize Iraq's industry, agriculture and private sector.

He also promised to provide young Iraqis "employment opportunities and housing".

According to Baidar, a "growing" global interest in Iraqi politics -- specifically from Washington, Paris and London -- could "force politicians to perform better".

"While Iraq is by no means a poor country, private and partisan interests conspire to divert resources away from critical investment in national development," UN envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert told the Security Council last week.

"Iraq's political and governance system ignores the needs of the Iraqi people," she charged.

"Pervasive corruption is a major root cause of Iraqi dysfunctionality. And frankly, no leader can claim to be shielded from it."

A pessimistic Mansour said "public life will remain as it is".

"People will still not have their basic rights, water, healthcare, electricity."



Israel Short on Soldiers after Year of War

 Israeli military members mourn soldier Major Guy Yaacov Nezri, who was killed amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, during his funeral at Mount Herzl military cemetery in Atlit, northern Israel, October 29, 2024. (Reuters)
Israeli military members mourn soldier Major Guy Yaacov Nezri, who was killed amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, during his funeral at Mount Herzl military cemetery in Atlit, northern Israel, October 29, 2024. (Reuters)
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Israel Short on Soldiers after Year of War

 Israeli military members mourn soldier Major Guy Yaacov Nezri, who was killed amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, during his funeral at Mount Herzl military cemetery in Atlit, northern Israel, October 29, 2024. (Reuters)
Israeli military members mourn soldier Major Guy Yaacov Nezri, who was killed amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, during his funeral at Mount Herzl military cemetery in Atlit, northern Israel, October 29, 2024. (Reuters)

More than a year into the Gaza war, the Israeli army's reservists are exhausted and it is struggling to recruit soldiers just as it opens a new front in Lebanon.

Some 300,000 reservists have been called up since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, according to the army, 18 percent of them men over 40 who should have been exempted.

Military service is mandatory from the age of 18 for Israeli men and women, though several exemptions apply.

Israel is waging a multi-front war against Hamas in Gaza and Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Since the military launched its ground offensive in Gaza on October 27 last year, it has lost 367 soldiers in the campaign, while 37 have died in Lebanon since Israel began ground operations there on September 30.

Periods of reserve duty have been extended, and some reservists complain they are unable to go on with their normal lives for up to six straight months.

"We're drowning," said reservist Ariel Seri-Levy in a social media post shared thousands of times.

He said he had been called up four times since the October 7 attack, and called out those who want Israel to "stay in Lebanon and Gaza".

"We have to end this war because we are out of soldiers," he said, adding that while he still believed in serving one's country, "the concessions have become too great".

Another reservist and father of two told AFP under condition of anonymity that "to fatigue and moral exhaustion is added the fact that I lost my job".

Many freelance workers have had to close shop because of the war, even if the government guarantees a minimum income for reservists.

"The collective is still above the individual but the cost is too great for my family," the reservist said, adding that he spent nearly six months in Gaza this year.

- Ultra-Orthodox exemptions -

The ongoing war has inflamed the public debate on drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews, many of whom are exempted from military service.

The ultra-Orthodox account for 14 percent of Israel's Jewish population, according to the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), representing about 1.3 million people. About 66,000 of those of conscription age are exempted, according to the army.

Under a rule adopted at Israel's creation in 1948, when it applied to only 400 people, the ultra-Orthodox have historically been exempted from military service if they dedicate themselves to the study of sacred Jewish texts.

In June, Israel's Supreme Court ordered the draft of yeshiva (seminary) students after deciding the government could not keep up the exemption "without an adequate legal framework".

Ultra-Orthodox political parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition called for such a framework before a vote on the budget at the end of the year.

Aryeh Deri, leader of the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party Shas, said he hoped "to solve the problem of the draft" for seminary students.

- 'Lighten the load' -

Some 2,000 wives of reservists from the religious Zionist movement, which combines religious lifestyle with army participation, signed an open letter asking to "lighten the load for those who serve".

"There is no contradiction between Torah study and military service, both go hand in hand," academic Tehila Elitzur, mother and wife of a reservist, told the Yediot Aharonot newspaper.

Six men who had volunteered despite being eligible for exemptions were killed in combat between October 22 and 28, including a father of 10.

David Zenou, a 52-year-old rabbi who fought for 250 days this year, including several weeks in Lebanon, said: "It's an honor to serve my country, and I will continue to do it for as long as I can.

"Above all, let's not forget that this is war and we are short on soldiers," the father of seven and grandfather of six told AFP.