Xi Set to Open Party Congress at Challenging Time for China https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3932416/xi-set-open-party-congress-challenging-time-china
Xi Set to Open Party Congress at Challenging Time for China
A journalist takes a photo of a screen showing Chinese President Xi Jinping at the press center ahead of China's 20th Communist Party Congress in Beijing on October 15, 2022. (AFP)
Xi Set to Open Party Congress at Challenging Time for China
A journalist takes a photo of a screen showing Chinese President Xi Jinping at the press center ahead of China's 20th Communist Party Congress in Beijing on October 15, 2022. (AFP)
Chinese President Xi Jinping will take the stage on Sunday to kick off a historic congress of the ruling Communist Party, where he is poised to win a third term that solidifies his place as China's most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong.
The congress comes at a tumultuous time, with Xi's adherence to his zero-COVID policy battering the economy, while his support for Russia's Vladimir Putin has further alienated China from the West. Still, diplomats, economists and analysts spoken to by Reuters say Xi is set to consolidate his grip on power.
The roughly week-long congress will take place with around 2,300 delegates, mostly behind closed doors, in the vast Great Hall of the People on Tiananmen Square. The Chinese capital has ramped up security and intensified COVID screening. In nearby Hebei province, steel mills were instructed to cut back on operations to improve air quality, an industry source said.
The opacity of Chinese politics, which has been heightened since Xi assumed power a decade ago, means party watchers are left to speculate over who will be named to key posts and what those appointments mean.
Still, few expect significant deviation in direction during a third Xi term, with continued focus on policies that prioritize security and self-reliance, state control of the economy, more assertive diplomacy and a stronger military, and growing pressure to seize Taiwan.
The congress will conclude with the introduction of the next Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), the elite body that now numbers seven and that Xi has come to dominate.
"The likelihood is that the new line-up will be uncompromisingly 'Xi-ist'," said former British diplomat Charles Parton, a fellow at the London-based Council on Geostrategy.
The congress will likely begin with Xi reading a lengthy report in a televised speech that will outline broad-brush priorities for the next five years. It begins a months-long process of personnel change at the top of the party and government that will conclude in March at the annual session of parliament.
In securing a third term Xi breaks with the two-term precedent of recent decades. Also breaking with norms: no successor to Xi, 69, is expected to be identified, analysts say, which would indicate he plans to remain in power even longer.
Mystery man
China-watchers are most interested to know who among the PSC members will be tapped as the next premier - a job charged with the daunting task of managing the world's second-largest economy - when Li Keqiang steps down in March.
While several senior officials are on "usual suspects" lists, none is the obvious choice to succeed Li - an uncertainty that departs from the norm.
Still, analysts say, the views of any individual matter less nowadays as Xi has sidelined those seen as "reformers" in favor of his more state-driven and nationalistic economic policies.
"There is increasing evidence that promotion decisions over the past few years have been made less on technocratic ability, which you might expect from reformers, and more in terms of loyalty to Xi Jinping, so I think we should retire this reformers idea really," said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.
Expectations
Xi's opening speech at the last congress, in 2017, was broadly upbeat, including ambitious plans to turn China into a leading global power by 2050. He mentioned "reforms" 70 times in a speech that lasted nearly three-and-a-half hours.
Since then, circumstances have changed dramatically: China's economy has been battered by COVID curbs, a crushing property sector crisis and blowback after Xi's clampdown on the tech sector under the banner of "common prosperity". Globally, Beijing's relations with the West have sharply deteriorated.
Investors and countless frustrated Chinese citizens hoping the congress marks a milestone after which China begins laying groundwork to dial back on zero-COVID appear increasingly likely to be disappointed as Beijing has this week repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to the policy.
Analysts also say the congress is unlikely to trigger any immediate or dramatic changes in policy to revive an economy that is seen on track to grow about 3% this year, falling far short of the official target of around 5.5%.
"Between now and March 2023, we expect no significant policy changes, particularly to the landmark zero-COVID strategy and the unprecedented curbs on China's property sector," Nomura analysts wrote.
Jamal Mustafa Recalls to Asharq Al-Awsat Years with Saddam, his Imprisonment and Executionhttps://english.aawsat.com/features/5084825-jamal-mustafa-recalls-asharq-al-awsat-years-saddam-his-imprisonment-and-execution
Jamal Mustafa Recalls to Asharq Al-Awsat Years with Saddam, his Imprisonment and Execution
Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview.
Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan, late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s son-in-law and second secretary, broke his silence and sat down with Asharq Al-Awsat to recall his time in prison and his years with the late president.
It’s not easy being Saddam’s son-in-law, son of his tribe and to rally the tribes to defend Baghdad only to discover that it has been occupied by the Americans, who have printed your image on playing cards and named you Iraq’s ninth most-wanted man. It’s not easy to seek safety in Syria, only to be turned away and then find yourself in prison.
It’s not easy to live in solitary confinement, and to be accused, while in prison, of leading a resistance and of sending booby-trapped cars. It’s not easy to learn while in prison that Saddam was detained by the American forces. It’s not easy to be summoned to trial in the Dujail case only to come face-to-face with Saddam himself.
It’s not easy to learn that “Mr. President” was executed at dawn on Eid al-Adha and that his corpse was strewn in front of then Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's house as he was celebrating his daughter’s wedding.
It’s not easy to learn from a judge in 2011 that there was no reason for you to remain on trial and that he was capable of releasing you in exchange for a hefty sum of dollars. Mustafa did not have that sort of money, so he was forced to remain in prison for nearly a decade before being released in 2021 due to a lack of evidence.
Weeks ago, I came across an old photo of Saddam with his whole family. Pictured were Saddam, his wife Sajidah, and his sons Uday and Qusay, daughter Raghad and her husband Hussein Kamel al-Majid, daughter Rana and her husband Saddam Kamel al-Majid, and daughter Hala and husband Mustafa. Five of the six men in the photo have been killed and only Mustafa remains.
Saddam Hussein surrounded by his family. (AFP)
He was born in Tikrit on October 1, 1964. He joined the president’s guard and was encouraged to continue his studies, earning a degree in political science. He played a major role in promoting sports and enjoyed strong ties with athletes. He was tasked with the tribe file and consequently forged extensive tis with them. He was trusted by Saddam and joined government meetings.
Mustafa was arrested on April 21, 2003, and released from al-Kadhimiya prison on June 17, 2021. He headed to Baghdad and later Erbil where he met with Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani. He then left Iraq for the Qatari capital Doha where he resides with Saddam’s widow Sajidah.
I approached Mustafa for an interview after he had shied away from the media, and he agreed to break his silence. As is tradition with tribes, he refused that I leave without a late lunch. The main meal was Habeet, the traditional Iraqi dish and Saddam’s favorite.
After leaving our meeting, I recalled what Abdul Raouf Rashid, the judge who issued the death sentence against Saddam in the Dujail case. He told me: “We acted according to the law and justice. Unfortunately, some officials turned the case into one of vengeance and gloating when they chose to execute him on Eid al-Adha. They desecrated Saddam’s corpse. Their actions are practically a gift to Saddam’s supporters who will keep his memory alive for a long time.”
I asked Mustafa about his time behind bars. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that he was on good terms with head of the Revolutionary Court Awad al-Bandar, who issued the death sentence. “He used to relay some of Saddam’s messages to me. (...) He was a good and brave man,” he said.
He recalled how he would receive cigars from Saddam that had his signature, a signal that he had received his messages. “I still have some of those cigars,” added Mustafa.
Saddam Hussein and Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan.
On Saddam’s morale during his time prison, Mustafa recalled: “The Iraqis, Arabs and Muslims know him well. They know that he was a brave and unyielding man. (...) It is no secret that he was aware that he was going to be executed. Everyone in jail was aware of this and we could not shake off the thought.”
Mustafa accused the trial of being corrupt and that any conviction could be made against Saddam to justify laying down the death penalty against him. “The trial was a farce. It was held by the Americans at Iranian orders and carried out by Iraqi agents to appease their Iranian and American masters. It was a tool to take revenge against the former regime,” stressed Mustafa.
Mustafa was with Saddam when he came under a failed assassination attempt in Dujail. “He was visiting Dujail just like any other city or village in Iraq. He met with citizens there who welcomed and celebrated his visit. He spoke to citizens and among them a woman. A sheep was slaughtered in his honor, and when we were about to get into our car, the woman splattered blood on the vehicle. We read this as a bad sign. So, we changed cars.”
“Soon after the convoy came under gunfire from gunmen hiding in nearby orchards. The president left his vehicles and several cars were damaged and people were injured. The president walked among the people to reassure them. After speaking to them, he returned to the car and headed back to the location where he had earlier delivered a speech. He delivered another speech before departing and we returned to Baghdad,” recalled Mustafa.
Saddam ordered the arrest of the suspects in the assassination attempt. “An hour after the attack Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani implied during a visit to Syria that they were behind the assassination. He said so from Damascus. This is damning evidence that Iran was behind the attack. They wanted to assassinate him. They knew that if they killed Mr. President that Iraq would fall in their hands,” he added. The suspects were eventually tried and executed.
Mustafa recalled the first day he was summoned to trial in the case. He entered the courtroom and saw Saddam there. “I remember exactly what I told him: ‘Peace be upon you, my father, father-in-law and dear leader,’” he revealed.
At the trial, Mustafa accused Iran of orchestrating several attacks in Baghdad, but the judge dismissed them, saying he was summoned to defend Saddam. Mustafa told the judge: “Mr. President is seen as a criminal by several of Iraq and the Ummah’s enemies, but he is a leader and brave son of Iraq and the Ummah.”
“You ask if I was punished for being Saddam’s son-in-law. The answer is yes. I remained in prison for 18 and a half years. Driven by spite, they only sought revenge. I paid a price and they tried to take revenge against me by keeping me in jail for so long. They came up with all sorts of charges against me, such as leading a resistance from behind bars,” continued Mustafa.
“They believed that I could have used my extensive ties to stage a coup once I was released from prison. So, they believed it was best that I remained and died there.” Mustafa was kept in solitary confinement for years. He recalled some sympathetic guards who treated him with respect because they were aware of his work in the sports sector and his vast network of relations.
Returning to Saddam, Mustafa said he met him twice while they were in prison. He recalled how painful it was to see him as he was his idol and he was surrounded by enemies on all sides. “He was a lion among them. He was firm in his principles and strove and sacrificed to uphold them.”
Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan's image on the playing cards of most-wanted Iraqis regime figures released by the US military.
Their first meeting took place in the jail and Mustafa said Saddam was in high spirits. They met the second time at court when Saddam declared that he had been tortured along with other detained leaders.
Mustafa learned of Saddam’s death when he noticed that the guards had taken away the radio the Americans had allowed them to keep so they could listen to the news. “We woke up one morning and it was gone. I also noticed a translator among our usual guard. This is a sign that something had happened,” he explained.
“Eventually we learned that Saddam was executed and martyred,” said Mustafa. “I said the following: ‘from now on Saddam will be a symbol of courage, heroism and sacrifice for all Iraqis, Arabs and Muslims. He will remain an eternal Arab leader.’ The translator translated my words to the guards, who remained silent. We then performed the prayer for the dead. Among us was Tariq Aziz, a Christian, but he also performed the prayer.”
“We were all in shock. His martyrdom was a shock to all honorable patriotic Iraqis, as well as Arabs and Muslims. He was also a great loss because he stood against the enemies. Everyone sensed his loss,” Mustafa added.
Saddam was executed on Eid al-Adha, which Mustafa said was deliberate to insult and humiliate the Arabs and Muslims.
“At the time, we heard claims that his corpse was strewn in front of Nouri al-Maliki's house. Maliki is allied to Iran. He was celebrating his daughter's wedding. The body was taken there to seal the revenge. They have never served or offered Iraq anything but revenge and destruction.”
The body was taken to Tikrit and later Al-Awja, Saddam’s birthplace, in the Salahuddin province. He was buried there and mourners from all over the world came to pay their respects. The grave remains a secret to only the most trusted people.
