Lebanon Practically Enters 'Presidential Vacuum' a Week before End of Aoun’s Term

 Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri heads the first session to elect a new president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon September 29, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri heads the first session to elect a new president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon September 29, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Lebanon Practically Enters 'Presidential Vacuum' a Week before End of Aoun’s Term

 Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri heads the first session to elect a new president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon September 29, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri heads the first session to elect a new president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon September 29, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

A fourth attempt by the Lebanese Parliament to elect a new president for the country failed on Monday, as a result of a loss of quorum. Unlike previous sessions that ended similarly, Speaker Nabih Berri refrained from calling for a next round, telling Asharq Al-Awsat that the election sessions have become a “failed and useless play.”

“That’s why I will try to replace them with a dialogue between political forces,” he added.

Monday’s parliamentary session came about a week before the end of the tenure of President Michel Aoun, who will leave Baabda Palace next Sunday, one day before the end of his term, confirming the inevitability of a presidential vacuum amid continuous disagreements over the name of his successor.

Berri clearly explained his decision to stop convening the Parliament. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the election sessions had become a “failed and useless play, and for this reason I will try to replace it with a dialogue between the political forces.”

He revealed that he has started sending his delegates to the political forces to solicit their opinion on the possibility of holding a national dialogue, with the aim to hold presidential elections that give the Lebanese “hope of getting out of the dangerous crises plaguing their country.”

In the same context, Berri asserted that he would not call for any dialogue before the end of Aoun’s current presidential term, refusing to assert that a vacuum occurred before all means were exhausted to avoid it.

In this context, he said: “It is useless to call for an election session in the absence of consensus and the balance of power within Parliament.”

“Dialogue will replace the sessions unless there is a possibility of consensus…” he added.

The fourth session did not bring anything new except for some changes in the distribution of votes. MP Michel Moawad obtained 39 votes, mainly from his Renewal Bloc, the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), the Lebanese Forces (LF), and the Kataeb party. On the other hand, 50 blank papers were cast by representatives of Hezbollah and its allies, who left the session before the beginning of the second voting round. As a result, the quorum was lost.

Most of the Change Bloc deputies chose to vote for Issam Khalifeh (a university professor who defends Lebanon’s share in the maritime borders represented by what is known as Line 29 and not 23 as stipulated in the recent agreement), while the National Moderation deputies, as in the previous session, voted for “New Lebanon”, and two other votes were canceled.

In remarks following the session, Moawad said: “I got 39 votes due to the absence of a number of deputies, and I have a clear road map.”

He added: “Hezbollah wants a gray president who obeys to it. [The party] continues to isolate Lebanon.”

Moawad also pointed to the presence of “a dominant authority working to blackmail MPs and the Lebanese to maintain its quotas by disrupting sessions…”

Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan reiterated his support to Moawad’s candidacy. Responding to a question about the LF willingness to meet Hezbollah’s invitation to agree on a president, he said: “The point of disagreement with Hezbollah is based on the Constitution, the law, and arms outside state authority. Everything becomes possible if Hezbollah accepts the principle of the state, the Constitution and the law, and admits that no weapons remain outside the state.”

On the other hand, MP Alain Aoun, who is member of Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), stressed that the election of a new president could only be achieved by securing a minimum level of consensus.

“This requires dialogue, and [Monday’s session] is evidence that what is happening is not enough,” he stated.

In remarks before the beginning of the parliamentary session, Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah said that his bloc would cast a blank paper.

“We hope that everyone will benefit from this experience.... We renew the call for understandings and for consensus on a name… We are open to dialogue. The issue is not a compilation of numbers,” he noted.



Maliki Pressuring Iraqi PM to Resign Following Confessions in Wire-tapping Scandal

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani (C) and former PM Nouri al-Maliki to his right. (X platform)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani (C) and former PM Nouri al-Maliki to his right. (X platform)
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Maliki Pressuring Iraqi PM to Resign Following Confessions in Wire-tapping Scandal

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani (C) and former PM Nouri al-Maliki to his right. (X platform)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani (C) and former PM Nouri al-Maliki to his right. (X platform)

The pro-Iran Coordination Framework in Iraq is intensifying its pressure on Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to resign in wake of the wire-tapping scandal that has rocked the country.

Trusted sources said the alliance, which brought al-Sudani to office in the first place, is now waging a “grinding” battle that could pave the way for radical political changes in the country.

Sources briefed Asharq Al-Awsat of the details of a meeting the Framework held on August 26 to discuss the scandal and its impact on the government.

Head of the State of Law coalition, former PM Nouri al-Maliki proposed “difficult” conditions on al-Sudani in exchange for not forcing the government to resign.

The sources included a judicial figure informed on the wire-tapping case and two leading members of the Framework. Opposition Shiite members of parliament were informed of details of the meeting and they confirmed that al-Sudani “refused to yield” to Maliki’s demands.

Confessions

During the meeting, the Framework was briefed by a judicial official on the details of the wire-tapping case and confessions of the suspects.

Gatherers at the meeting listened to voice recordings of people who spoke of orders from “the highest government” authority to “monitor politicians and officials.”

The wire-tapping case “has become fact with dangerous repercussions,” said the sources.

Local media has been filled with reports in recent weeks about the scandal. Verifying the reports remains difficult because official authorities have yet to provide evidence in the case.

The government has said that it was being targeted by a campaign of incitement to tarnish its image. It did release brief statements to announce the arrest of an employee in al-Sudani's office on charges of “making a harmful post”.

Al-Sudani had informed the leaders of Shiite parties of the Framework that he was prepared to cooperate with the judiciary in the case and aid in the transparent investigation.

The confessions, however, changed everything, said the sources.

They said the leaders of the Shiite parties left the Framework meeting in shock and dismay.

The confessions revealed that senior politicians were targeted, including Maliki, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq faction Qais al-Khazali and others.

Maliki’s conditions

Maliki emerged from the meeting with difficult demands because he refused to close the wire-tapping case without receiving anything in return from al-Sudani.

“The shock of the confessions will not pass without a firm response,” the sources quoted Maliki as saying.

He demanded that al-Sudani cede control of the intelligence agency and turn it over to the Framework. He called for expelling all members of al-Sudani's clan from government institutions and restructuring the government office.

He demanded that al-Sudani refrain from running in the upcoming elections and that he dissolve his Al-Furatayn party.

One of the sources confirmed that Maliki did indeed make these demands, except for the last one about dissolving the party.

Maliki believes that the confessions are enough to force al-Sudani to resign immediately, it added.

Observers view Maliki’s intense rivalry with al-Sudani as a result of the PM’s efforts to play a greater role in political life and his plans to run for a second term in office through forging alliances outside the Framework that had brought him to power.

Al-Sudani's refusal to go ahead with Maliki’s conditions will lead to early elections in Iraq, the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Maliki had also made the demand himself: either al-Sudani yield to his conditions or Iraq heads to early polls.

Two sources said the former PM believes he can garner the support of the country’s top Religious Authority and the Sadrist movement, led by influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, to hold early elections.

Al-Sudani stands firm

Al-Sudani, meanwhile, has refused to yield to Maliki’s demands, revealed sources close to the premier. He believes he enjoys enough support and influence to wage a “battle” against Maliki.

He can also rely on his executive power as prime minister and the major political push he received with last week’s announcement that an agreement has been reached between Baghdad and Washington over a timeframe for the withdrawal of the International Coalition forces from Iraq.

Al-Sudani also enjoys the support of Shiite figures, such as head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) Faleh al-Fayyadh and head of the Islamic Supreme Council Hammam Hammoudi.

However, relations between al-Sudani and one of his closest allies, Khazali, appear strained for now. The latter will not offer “gifts for free”, said the sources.

Al-Sudani needs support from Khazali’s Asaib Ahl al-Haq to “secure the future of his government” given the faction’s influence.

As it stands, the Framework is now dominated by two movements: the first includes Al-Sudani, Fayyadh and Hammoudi, and the second is led by Maliki. Caught in the middle are Ammar al-Hakim and Hadi al-Ameri, who are keen to benefit from the other movements.

The “centrist movement” knows the limits of its political weight. Hakim and Ameri are aware that they don’t stand to achieve greater influence in the future than what they have now, so they are keen on preserving the current equation in the Framework and their interests, said the sources.

Weakened Framework

A prominent Shiite official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Framework is “gradually turning into a cover for rival movements that are on the verge of quitting the alliance at any moment.”

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the problems within the Framework started before the wire-tapping scandal and go back to the “heist of the century” and its main suspect Nour Zuhair.

Accusations about Zuhair and questions about who is backing him have turned into a major thorny issue in the Framework, explained the official.

Al-Sudani started by first “tossing Zuhair’s case to the judiciary,” while major political powers resorted to their “secret tools” against the government.

Hakim at one point proposed a solution that calls for ending the current escalation between the Shiite powers and reaching a new agreement. But it appears it has fallen on deaf ears, said the sources.

Shiite figures have instead said the crisis can now be addressed through one of the following means: a direct confrontation between the Shiite forces, reaching some form of middle ground, or holding early elections.

Early elections appear to be the likeliest scenario given al-Sudani's refusal to back down to Maliki and the latter’s insistence that the government should not be allowed to finish its legal term in office because it must pay the price for the wire-tapping scandal.