Will Sudani Adopt the Previous Iraqi Government’s Economic Policies?

A handout picture released by Iraq's prime minister's office shows the new Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani arriving for the official handover ceremony at the Republican Palace, the government's seat, in Baghdad's green zone. (Iraq's prime minister's office/ AFP)
A handout picture released by Iraq's prime minister's office shows the new Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani arriving for the official handover ceremony at the Republican Palace, the government's seat, in Baghdad's green zone. (Iraq's prime minister's office/ AFP)
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Will Sudani Adopt the Previous Iraqi Government’s Economic Policies?

A handout picture released by Iraq's prime minister's office shows the new Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani arriving for the official handover ceremony at the Republican Palace, the government's seat, in Baghdad's green zone. (Iraq's prime minister's office/ AFP)
A handout picture released by Iraq's prime minister's office shows the new Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani arriving for the official handover ceremony at the Republican Palace, the government's seat, in Baghdad's green zone. (Iraq's prime minister's office/ AFP)

These days, we are seeing increasing speculation, especially among Iraqi elites and economists, about the extent to which the country’s new prime minister, Mohamed Shia al-Sudani, can reverse some of the critical economic decisions that the Coordination Framework had criticized Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s government of taking. Topping the list are the decision to devaluate the Iraqi dinar and a couple of other economic policies.

Dr. Nabil Al-Marsoumi, an academic and economist, said the program put forward by Sudani’s government did not mention reversing the decision to devaluate the currency by over a fifth - with 1,480 rather than 1,180 dinars becoming the equivalent of one US dollar.

The failure to reverse the decision of the former government demonstrates that its critics, most of whom are part of the pro-Iran Coordination Framework, had exploited the devaluation and its ramifications for the Iraqi people’s purchasing power as a pretext to undermine Kadhimi’s government.

“There was no amendment to the exchange rate in the government’s 2023 budget,” Marsoumi stressed. This affirms that Sudani’s government - and with it, the Coordination Framework deputies who dominate parliament - has backtracked on the exchange rate.

Marsoumi added that reversing the decision taken by Khadimi’s government and bringing the US dollar exchange rate back to 2020 levels would increase the government’s budget by 24 billion dollars.

He noted that over 50 MPs recently petitioned the government to reverse the decision. Sudani’s government, however, did not show any enthusiasm for this step, meaning that the decision taken by the former government had been correct despite the sharp criticism that had been levied at it at the time. Indeed, it is a decision several figures and platforms close to the Coordination Framework continue to criticize it.

Moreover, other economists have noted that the new government’s program did not mention the economic agreements that Kadhimi’s government had concluded with Arab countries.

Many within the Coordination Framework had criticized this decision and fiercely opposed it, especially those that are particularly close to Tehran.

Among them is the accord to sell Iraqi oil to Jordan at a discount and the economic agreements concluded with Egypt and Jordan, and the electric grid agreements with the Gulf states and Türkiye - more evidence that “Iraqi political forces usually pursue their private interests.”

While Sudani had called for reducing the salaries of high-ranking Iraqi officials, which he said would save the government 500 billion dinars (about 400 million dollars) a month, this seems unlikely. Indeed, many observers have said that they doubt Sudani will be able to do that since most ministers and senior officials are affiliated with the parties and groups in power. They are not simply going to roll over and surrender their privileges.

Experts believe that instead of a reduction in salaries, we could see Sudani make cuts to the privileges and financial incentives that come with such positions. In fact, they often cost the government multiples of the officials’ salaries. These incentives often take the form of funds allocated to the minister or official’s office, as well as a budget allocated for security.



Borderless Europe Fights Brain Drain as Talent Heads North

Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo
Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo
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Borderless Europe Fights Brain Drain as Talent Heads North

Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo
Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo

Until recently aerospace engineer Pedro Monteiro figured he'd join many of his peers moving from Portugal to its richer European neighbors in the quest for a better-paid job once he completes his master's degree in Lisbon.
But tax breaks proposed by Portugal's government for young workers - up to a temporary 100% income tax exemption in some cases - plus help with housing are making him think twice.
"Previous governments left young people behind," said Monteiro, 23, who is studying engineering and industrial management at the Higher Technical Institute in the Portuguese capital. "The country needs us and we want to stay but we need to see signs from the government that they are implementing policies that will help."
Monteiro cites in particular the cost of buying or renting a home amid a housing crisis aggravated by the arrival of wealthy foreigners lured by easy residency rights and tax breaks, Reuters said.
He is doubtful the government's new measures will be enough.
"Some of my friends are now working abroad and earn substantially more money... and have better career development opportunities," he said. "I'm a little bit skeptical concerning my job opportunities here in Portugal."
Portugal is the latest country in Europe to seek to tackle a brain drain holding back its economy. Tax breaks for young workers in the budget currently going through parliament will take effect next year and could benefit as many as 400,000 young people at an annual cost of 525 million euros.
Talent flight to wealthier countries of the north is a problem Portugal shares with several others in southern and central Europe, as workers take advantage of freedom of movement rules within the trade bloc. Countries including Italy have tried other schemes to counter the flight, with mixed results.
By exacerbating regional labor shortages and depriving poorer countries of tax revenues, it is yet another hurdle for the EU as it tries to improve its ebbing economic growth while addressing population decline and lagging labor productivity.
Donald Trump's victory in US elections this month raises the stakes, with the risk of across-the-board trade tariffs on European exports of at least 10% - a move that economists say could turn Europe's anaemic growth into outright recession.
About 2.3 million people born in Portugal, or 23% of its population, currently live abroad, according to Portugal's Emigration Observatory. That includes 850,000 Portuguese nationals aged 15-39, or about 30% of young Portuguese and 12.6% of its working-age population.
More concerning still is that about 40% of 50,000 people who graduate from universities or technical colleges emigrate each year, according to a study by Business Roundtable Portugal and Deloitte based on official statistics, costing Portugal billions of euros in lost income tax revenue and social security contributions.
DEMOGRAPHIC HELL
"This is not a country for young people," said Pedro Ginjeira do Nascimento, executive director of Business Roundtable Portugal, which represents 43 of the largest companies in the nation of 10 million people. "Portugal is experiencing a true demographic hell because the country is unable to create conditions to retain and attract young talent."
Internal migration within the EU is partly driven by the disparity in wages between its member states. Some economic migrants also say they are looking for better benefits such as pensions and healthcare and less rigid, hierarchichal structures that give more responsibility to those in junior roles.
Concerns are mounting over the long-term viability of Europe's economic model with its rapidly ageing population and failure to win substantial shares of high-growth markets of the future, from tech to renewable energy.
Presenting a raft of reform proposals aimed at boosting local innovation and investment, former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said in September the region faced a "slow agony" of decline if it did not compete more effectively.
Eszter Czovek, 45, and her husband are moving from Hungary to Austria, where workers earn an average 40.9 euros ($29.95) per hour compared to 12.8 euros per hour in Hungary, the largest wage gap between neighboring countries in the EU.
The number of Hungarians living in Austria increased to 107,264 by the beginning of 2024 from just 14,151 when Hungary joined the EU.
Czovek's husband, who works in construction, was offered a job in Austria, while she has worked in media and accounting at various multinationals. She cited better pay, pensions, work conditions and healthcare as motives for moving. She also mentioned her concern over the political situation in Hungary, which she fears might join Britain in leaving the EU.
"There was a change of regime here in 1989 and 30 years later we are still waiting for the miracle that will see us catch up with Austria," Czovek said of the revolution over three decades ago that ended communist rule in Hungary.
Since Brexit, the Netherlands has replaced Britain as a preferred destination for Portuguese talent while Germany and Scandinavian countries are also popular.
Many Europeans still head to the United States in search of better jobs - about 4.7 million were living there in 2022, according to the Washington-based Migration Policy Institute, which nonetheless notes a long-term decline since the 1960s.
In 2023, 4,892 Portuguese emigrated to the Netherlands, surpassing Britain for the first time, which in 2019 received 24,500 Portuguese.
At home, they face the eighth-highest tax burden in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) even as house prices rose 186% and rents by 94% since 2015, according to property specialists Confidencial Imobiliario.
A single person in Portugal without children earned an average of 16,943 euros after tax in 2023 compared to 45,429 euros in the Netherlands, according to Eurostat.
Portugal will offer under 35s earning up to 28,000 euros a year a 100% tax exemption during their first year of work, gradually reducing the benefit to a 25% deduction between the eighth and tenth years.
Young people would also be exempted from transaction taxes and stamp duty when buying their first home as well as access to loans guaranteed by the state and rent subsidies.
"We are designing a solid package that tries to solve the main reasons why the young leave," Cabinet Minister Antonio Leitao Amaro said in an interview with Reuters.
'THINGS WON'T CHANGE'
Leitao Amaro said he did not know for sure if the tax breaks would work but that his government, which came into office in April, had to try something new.
"If we don't act ambitiously, things won't change and Portugal will continue down this path," he said.
The Italian government has already found that tax breaks used as incentives are costly and open to fraud.
In January, Italy abruptly curtailed its own scheme that was costing 1.3 billion euros in lost tax revenue, even as it lured tech workers such as Alessandra Mariani back home.
Before 2024, returners were offered a 70% tax break for five years, extendable for another five years in certain circumstances. Now, it plans to offer a slimmed-down scheme targeting specific skills after it attracted only 1,200 teachers or researchers - areas where Italy has a particular shortage.
Mariani said the incentives were key to persuading her to return to Milan in 2021 by allowing her to maintain the same standard of living she enjoyed in London.
"Had the opportunity been the same without the scheme, I would not have done it at all," said Mariani, now working at the Italian arm of the same large tech company.
With her tax breaks poised to be phased out by 2026 unless she buys a house or has a child, Mariani faces a drop in salary and she said she's once again eyeing the exit door.