Saudi Aramco Drops January's Arab Light Prices for Asia 

Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and station (Reuters) 
Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and station (Reuters) 
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Saudi Aramco Drops January's Arab Light Prices for Asia 

Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and station (Reuters) 
Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and station (Reuters) 

Aramco announced that Saudi Arabia has dropped the January official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers to a 10-month low.  

The price is $2.20 a barrel below official selling prices for December, so the demand outlook remains fragile.  

The largest oil exporter set the official selling price of Arab Light crude to northwest Europe at $0.10 lower than Brent crude in January, $1.80 less than its December price.  

The US selling price remained unchanged from last month at $6.35 above the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) for January.  

OPEC+ decision and market stability 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, also known as OPEC+, maintained their previous crude output target during their Sunday virtual meeting.  

OPEC+ kept their oil production targets unchanged before the European Union's ban on Russian crude took effect, and the G7 imposed a maximum price on its prices, starting Monday. 

Oil prices rose on Monday after the OPEC+ decision, and in a positive sign of fuel demand from the largest oil importer in the world, as more Chinese cities relaxed COVID-19 restrictions at the beginning of the week.  

Brent crude futures settled down $2.89, or 3.4 percent, at $82.68 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $3.05, or 3.8 percent, to $76.93 a barrel. Both benchmarks had earlier risen more than $2 before reversing direction.  

"The decision ... is not a surprise, given the uncertainty in the market over the impact of the Dec. 5 EU Russia crude oil import ban and the G7 price cap," said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president of consultancy Wood Mackenzie told Reuters.  

"In addition, the producers' group faces downside risk from the potential for weakening global economic growth and China's zero COVID policy."  

Chinese business and manufacturing sectors, the second largest economy in the world, have been affected this year by the strict COVID-19 restrictions.  

Russian oil embargo 

The European ban prohibiting Russian crude oil imports by sea entered into force as of Monday, with limited exceptions for Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.  

The EU and the G7 also agreed on Friday to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel, a policy aimed at Moscow's other customers, and it entered into effect on Monday, too.  

An EU document showed that the price cap would be reviewed every two months, using Russian oil prices provided by the International Energy Agency as a reference.  

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia is preparing a response to the decision of Western countries to impose a price ceiling on its oil.  

Peskov announced that a decision is being taken, and Russia would not recognize "any ceilings," adding that adopting such choices is "a step towards destabilizing the world energy market."  

Meanwhile, Japan implemented a price cap on Russian crude oil under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law.  

Bloomberg stated, quoting the Japanese Finance Ministry of Finance, that Russian oil traded above the limit will be effectively banned, excluding crude oil imported from the Sakhalin-2 plant. 



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.