Asian Equities, Oil Prices Dragged by Recession Fears

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
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Asian Equities, Oil Prices Dragged by Recession Fears

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP

Asian investors extended a sell-off across global markets Wednesday while oil held losses on growing fears Federal Reserve monetary tightening will tip the US economy into recession.

The drop followed another day deep in the red for New York's three main indexes after the heads of Wall Street's leading banks warned of tough times ahead in 2023, AFP said.

JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon tipped a "mild to hard recession" and Goldman Sachs' David Solomon said jobs and pay would be hit, while Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were also uneasy about the outlook.

The comments added to the downbeat mood that has coursed through trading floors at the start of the week, after forecast-beating reports on jobs and the giant US services sector fanned worries the Fed will have to push interest rates higher than hoped.

Markets had been rising healthily ahead of Friday's employment figures after a weaker-than-expected inflation reading for October suggested the almost year-long tightening campaign was finally affecting prices.

"Any hopes that the Fed would turn more dovish in the months ahead have been dashed significantly as the vast US services industry is where sticky inflation hangs out," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

He added that the latest readings suggest rates will go above five percent before the Fed stops hiking, while several observers have suggested they will not be reduced until 2024.

In early trade, Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Manila and Jakarta were all down. However, Hong Kong, which has been the standout performer in recent weeks, clipped slightly higher.

But Lauren Goodwin, at New York Life Investments, saw further pain ahead for markets.

"We have not yet seen the bottom on equity prices," she said, according to Bloomberg News. "While this phase of equity market volatility is likely to end in the next few months, earnings have not yet adapted to a recessionary environment."

The sombre outlook overshadowed hopes that China's moves to wind back some of its harsh Covid rules will kickstart the world's number two economy, which has been battered this year by months of lockdowns and other containment measures.

It also kept oil prices at lows not seen for around a year as demand expectations tumble.

Brent on Tuesday sank below $80 for the first time since January, while WTI was at its lowest since December, having plunged from the 14-year highs of around $140 touched in March after Russia invaded Ukraine. Both contracts were barely moved in Asian trade.

"The crude demand outlook is getting crushed as we are in a slowdown basically across all the major economies," said OANDA's Edward Moya.

"Supplies seem plentiful over the near term and that has everyone hesitating on what was one of the easiest trades of the year."

- Key figures around 0230 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.5 percent at 27,756.94 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 19,529.70

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 3,201.71

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0465 from $1.0470 on Tuesday

Dollar/yen: UP at 137.11 yen from 137.04 yen

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2135 from $1.2133

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.24 pence from 86.26 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.1 percent at $74.16 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.2 percent at $79.48 per barrel

New York - Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 33,596.34 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 7,521.39 (close)



IMF Board to Review Staff-level $8.1 Bln Agreement for Ukraine

The city's downtown on a frosty winter day, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 19, 2026. REUTERS/Alina Smutko
The city's downtown on a frosty winter day, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 19, 2026. REUTERS/Alina Smutko
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IMF Board to Review Staff-level $8.1 Bln Agreement for Ukraine

The city's downtown on a frosty winter day, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 19, 2026. REUTERS/Alina Smutko
The city's downtown on a frosty winter day, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 19, 2026. REUTERS/Alina Smutko

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday said its board ​would review a staff-level agreement for a new $8.1 billion lending program for Ukraine in coming days.

IMF spokeswoman Jule Kozack told reporters that Ukrainian authorities had completed the prior actions needed to move forward with the request ⁠of a new ⁠IMF program, including submission of a draft law on the labor code and adoption of a budget.

She said Ukraine's economic growth in 2025 ⁠was likely under 2%. After four years of war, the country's economy had settled into a slower growth path with larger fiscal and current account balances, she said, noting that the IMF continues to monitor the situation closely.

"Russia's invasion continues to take a ⁠heavy ⁠toll on Ukraine's people and its economy," Kozack said. Intensified aerial attacks by Russia had damaged critical energy and logistics infrastructure, causing disruptions to economic activity, Reuters quoted her as saying.

As of January, she said, 5 million Ukrainian refugees remained in Europe and 3.7 million Ukrainians were displaced inside the country.


US Stocks Fall as Iran Angst Lifts Oil Prices

A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
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US Stocks Fall as Iran Angst Lifts Oil Prices

A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Wall Street stocks retreated early Thursday as worries over US-Iran tensions lifted oil prices while markets digested mixed results from Walmart.

US oil futures rose to a six-month high as Iran's atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami said no country can deprive the Islamic republic of its right to nuclear enrichment, after US President Donald Trump again hinted at military action following talks in Geneva.

"We'd call this an undercurrent of concern that is bubbling up in oil prices," Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare said of the "geopolitical angst."

About 10 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6 percent at 49,379.46, AFP reported.

The broad-based S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent to 6,849.35, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.6 percent to 22,621.38.

Among individual companies, Walmart rose 1.7 percent after reporting solid results but offering forecasts that missed analyst expectations.

Shares of the retail giant initially fell, but pushed higher after Walmart executives talked up artificial intelligence investments on a conference call with analysts.

The US trade deficit in goods expanded to a new record in 2025, government data showed, despite sweeping tariffs that Trump imposed during his first year back in the White House.


Gold Advances on US–Iran Tensions as Markets Weigh Fed Policy Path

UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
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Gold Advances on US–Iran Tensions as Markets Weigh Fed Policy Path

UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo

Gold prices extended gains on Thursday after rising more than 2% in the previous session, as lingering tensions between the United States and Iran prompted a flight to safety, while investors evaluated the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,989.09 per ounce by 1227 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery held steady at $5,008.60.

"Geopolitical concerns are front and centre with reports that, if the US were to take military action against Iran, it could go on for several weeks," said Jamie Dutta, market analyst at Nemo.money, Reuters reported.

Some progress was made during Iran talks this week in Geneva but distance remained on some issues, the White House said on Wednesday.

FED LARGELY UNITED

Top US national security advisers met in the White House Situation Room on Wednesday to discuss Iran and were told all US military forces deployed to the region should be in place by mid-March.

Meanwhile, the Fed's January minutes showed it largely united on holding interest rates steady, but divided over what comes next, with "several" open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, while others were inclined to support further cuts if inflation recedes.

The weekly jobless claims data, due later in the day, and Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will provide further clues on the central bank's policy trajectory.

Markets currently expect this year's first interest rate cut to be in June, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Spot silver rose 0.9% to $77.87 per ounce after climbing more than 5% on Wednesday.

Silver is "supported by tight supply and low COMEX stock levels ahead of the delivery period of the March contract. However, given the extent of the historic correction earlier this month, silver is not back on safer ground until it trades back above $86," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Spot platinum fell 0.6% to $2,059.55 per ounce, while palladium lost 1.7% to $1,686.47.