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Lebanon’s FPM Torn Between Bassil’s Ambitions, Hezbollah’s Pressure 

Lebanese MPs speak prior to the start of the ninth parliamentary session to elect a new president of Lebanon, at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 December 2022. (EPA)
Lebanese MPs speak prior to the start of the ninth parliamentary session to elect a new president of Lebanon, at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 December 2022. (EPA)
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Lebanon’s FPM Torn Between Bassil’s Ambitions, Hezbollah’s Pressure 

Lebanese MPs speak prior to the start of the ninth parliamentary session to elect a new president of Lebanon, at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 December 2022. (EPA)
Lebanese MPs speak prior to the start of the ninth parliamentary session to elect a new president of Lebanon, at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 December 2022. (EPA)

A number of lawmakers from Lebanon’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) have acknowledged that the party is in “crisis” over the election of a new president of the republic. 

FPM MPs have submitted blank votes in eight electoral sessions. Tensions reached new heights during the ninth session amid disputes between the FPM, headed by MP Gebran Bassil, and its ally Hezbollah. 

The dispute revolves around Hezbollah ministers taking part in a recent government session in spite of the FPM’s disapproval. The FPM believes that the cabinet cannot convene given that it is operating in a caretaker capacity. 

The FPM consequently retaliated to Hezbollah at the ninth electoral session. Instead of submitting the usual blank votes, some MPs wrote down the name Badri Daher, the former customs chief and close associate of the FPM who has been held in connection to the 2020 Beirut port blast, and others wrote down the name “Michel” and others “Mouawad”, knowing that the ballots would be considered void. 

Michel Mouawad, an opponent of Hezbollah, is running for president. 

Speaking on condition of anonymity, one FPM MP told Asharq Al-Awsat that the movement was in crisis over the presidential elections. 

He stressed that the FPM will not support the nomination of neither Marada movement leader Suleiman Franjieh, who is being backed by Hezbollah, nor Mouawad. 

Any other option besides the blank ballot is “useless as long we can’t secure the right number of votes to elect a candidate,” he added. 

“We will come up with a new option during the next electoral session,” he stated. 

The next session is set for Thursday. 

“We are confident that this crisis can only be resolved through agreement,” added the MP. 

The “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, headed by Berri, have both been backing Franjieh’s candidacy and pressuring Bassil to go ahead with their choice. 

Bassil, however, has been rejecting their proposal for numerous considerations, chiefly his yet undeclared ambition to run for president. 

Sources from the FPM told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Bassil believes he is the most deserving of the position because he boasts the largest bloc at parliament.” 

“He will not so easily relinquish his belief that a strong candidate must become president, meaning a figure who enjoys a large popular and parliamentary base,” they explained. 

Bassil is “looking to local and foreign changes that may take place in the coming months that may turn the elections in his favor,” they revealed. 

Moreover, the MP is unlikely to back the nomination of army commander Joseph Aoun given the sharp disputes that had erupted between them during the term of former President Michel Aoun, founder of the FPM and Bassil’s father-in-law. 

Bassil had criticized how the military had managed the situation on the ground during the 2019 anti-government protests. 

Some MPs and prominent FPM figures are leaning towards nominating other figures from the movement, such as MPs Alain Aoun, Ibrahim Kanaan and Nada al-Boustani, as president. 

Bassil has not backed the proposal, saying he would rather support a consensus figure, such as former minister Ziad Baroud, should the FPM choose to stop submitting blank votes. 

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How Long Will It Take and How Much Will It Cost to Rebuild Gaza?

A young Palestinian girl walks along a street on a misty morning in Khan Younis in the northern Gaza Strip on January 17, 2025, as Israel's security cabinet is expected to approve a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal. (AFP)
A young Palestinian girl walks along a street on a misty morning in Khan Younis in the northern Gaza Strip on January 17, 2025, as Israel's security cabinet is expected to approve a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal. (AFP)
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How Long Will It Take and How Much Will It Cost to Rebuild Gaza?

A young Palestinian girl walks along a street on a misty morning in Khan Younis in the northern Gaza Strip on January 17, 2025, as Israel's security cabinet is expected to approve a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal. (AFP)
A young Palestinian girl walks along a street on a misty morning in Khan Younis in the northern Gaza Strip on January 17, 2025, as Israel's security cabinet is expected to approve a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal. (AFP)

Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are eager to leave miserable tent camps and return to their homes if a long-awaited ceasefire agreement halts the Israel-Hamas war, but many will find there is nothing left and no way to rebuild.

Israeli bombardment and ground operations have transformed entire neighborhoods in several cities into rubble-strewn wastelands, with blackened shells of buildings and mounds of debris stretching away in all directions. Major roads have been plowed up. Critical water and electricity infrastructure is in ruins. Most hospitals no longer function.

And it's unclear when — or even if — much will be rebuilt.

The agreement for a phased ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas-led fighters does not say who will govern Gaza after the war, or whether Israel and Egypt will lift a blockade limiting the movement of people and goods that they imposed when Hamas seized power in 2007.

The United Nations says that it could take more than 350 years to rebuild if the blockade remains.

Two-thirds of all structures destroyed

The full extent of the damage will only be known when the fighting ends and inspectors have full access to the territory. The most heavily destroyed part of Gaza, in the north, has been sealed off and largely depopulated by Israeli forces in an operation that began in early October.

Using satellite data, the United Nations estimated last month that 69% of the structures in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed, including over 245,000 homes. The World Bank estimated $18.5 billion in damage — nearly the combined economic output of the West Bank and Gaza in 2022 — from just the first four months of the war.

Israel blames the destruction on Hamas, which ignited the war with its Oct. 7, 2023, attack into Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting another 250. Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed over 46,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which does not say how many of the dead were fighters.

Israel says it has killed over 17,000 fighters, without providing evidence. The military has released photos and video footage showing that Hamas built tunnels and rocket launchers in residential areas, and often operated in and around homes, schools and mosques.

Mountains of rubble to be moved

Before anything can be rebuilt, the rubble must be removed — a staggering task in itself.

The UN estimates that the war has littered Gaza with over 50 million tons of rubble — roughly 12 times the size of the Great Pyramid of Giza. With over 100 trucks working full time, it would take over 15 years to clear the rubble away, and there is little open space in the narrow coastal territory that is home to some 2.3 million Palestinians.

Carting the debris away will also be complicated by the fact that it contains huge amounts of unexploded ordnance and other harmful materials, as well as human remains. Gaza's Health Ministry says thousands of people killed in airstrikes are still buried under the rubble.

No plan for the day after

The rubble clearance and eventual rebuilding of homes will require billions of dollars and the ability to bring construction materials and heavy equipment into the territory — neither of which is assured.

The ceasefire agreement calls for a three- to five-year reconstruction project to begin in its final phase, after all the remaining 100 hostages have been released and Israeli troops have withdrawn from the territory.

But getting to that point will require agreement on the second and most difficult phase of the deal, which still must be negotiated.

Even then, the ability to rebuild will depend on the blockade, which critics have long decried as a form of collective punishment. Israel says it is needed to prevent Hamas from rebuilding its military capabilities, noting that cement and metal pipes can also be used for tunnels and rockets.

Israel might be more inclined to lift the blockade if Hamas were no longer in power, but there are no plans for an alternative government.

The United States and much of the international community want a revitalized Palestinian Authority to govern the West Bank and Gaza with the support of Arab countries ahead of eventual statehood. But that's a nonstarter for Israel's government, which is opposed to a Palestinian state and has ruled out any role in Gaza for the Western-backed authority.

International donors are unlikely to invest in an ungoverned territory that has seen five wars in less than two decades, which means the sprawling tent camps along the coast could become a permanent feature of life in Gaza.