Oil Resumes Slide as Weak Economy Outweighs Supply Risks

This photograph taken on December 11, 2022 shows storage tanks at the facilities of the oil products company Exolum at the port of Barcelona. (AFP)
This photograph taken on December 11, 2022 shows storage tanks at the facilities of the oil products company Exolum at the port of Barcelona. (AFP)
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Oil Resumes Slide as Weak Economy Outweighs Supply Risks

This photograph taken on December 11, 2022 shows storage tanks at the facilities of the oil products company Exolum at the port of Barcelona. (AFP)
This photograph taken on December 11, 2022 shows storage tanks at the facilities of the oil products company Exolum at the port of Barcelona. (AFP)

Oil prices fell on Monday, deepening a multi-week decline, as a weakening global economy offset supply woes stemming from the closure of a key pipeline supplying the United States and Russian threats of a production cut.

Brent crude futures were down 38 cents, or 0.4%, at $75.72 a barrel by 0900 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.76 a barrel, down 26 cents, or 0.3%.

Last week, Brent and WTI fell to their lowest since December 2021 amid concerns that a possible global recession will impact oil demand.

China, the world's biggest crude oil importer, continued to loosen its strict zero-COVID policy, though streets in the capital Beijing remained quiet and many businesses stayed shut over the weekend.

On Monday, queues formed outside fever clinics in the cities of Beijing and Wuhan, where COVID first emerged three years ago.

"Oil markets will likely stay volatile in the near term amid uncertainty over the impact on Russian output from the EU's ban, headlines on China's COVID policy, and central bank movements in the US and Europe," UBS analysts said in a note.

UBS said it believed Brent should recover to above $100 per barrel in the coming months amid supply constraints and rising demand while OPEC+ would keep supply tight.

On Sunday, Canada's TC Energy said it had not yet determined the cause of the Keystone oil pipeline leak last week in the United States. It gave no timeline as to when the pipeline would resume operation.

The 622,000 barrel-per-day Keystone line is a critical artery shipping heavy Canadian crude to US refiners.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia could cut production and would refuse to sell oil to any country that imposes a "stupid" price cap on Russian exports.

"The emergent EU embargo on Russian crude... may add moderate upside energy price risks in the next few months. But supply uncertainty should ease by spring 2023, after the embargo on oil products (on Feb.5) plays out," Deutsche Bank said in a note.



Saudi Arabia's Liquidity Hits All-Time High of SAR2.825 Trillion

Saudi Arabia's Liquidity Hits All-Time High of SAR2.825 Trillion
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Saudi Arabia's Liquidity Hits All-Time High of SAR2.825 Trillion

Saudi Arabia's Liquidity Hits All-Time High of SAR2.825 Trillion

Saudi Arabia's liquidity levels continued to grow strongly, reaching SAR2,825,715 million at the end of May 2024, marking an annual growth of approximately 8.6%, reported the Saudi Press Agency on Sunday.

This represented an increase of more than SAR222,928 billion compared to the same period in 2023, which stood at SAR2,602,786 million. These levels reflect the broad money supply (M3) as reported in the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA)'s monthly statistical bulletin for May 2024.

Since the beginning of the year, liquidity has grown by 4%, representing an increase of more than SAR104,757 billion. At the end of January, it stood at SAR2,720,957 million.

Liquidity levels also achieved a monthly growth of approximately 1.2%, with an increase of about SAR32,402 billion compared to the end of April of the same year when it stood at SAR2,793,313 million.

These liquidity levels strongly support economic and commercial activity, contributing effectively to the economic development process and enabling the achievement of the goals of Saudi Vision 2030. This reflects the strength and solidity of the banking and financial sector.

A breakdown of the four components of the broad money supply (M3) is as follows: Demand deposits, the largest contributor to the total money supply (M3) at 49.2%, recorded a level of SAR1,390,893 million at the end of May 2024.

Time and savings deposits, the second-largest contributor to the total money supply (M3) at 31.5%, recorded a level of SAR889,558 million.

Other quasi-money deposits amounted to SAR314,807 million, representing a contribution of approximately 11.1% to the total money supply (M3), making it the third-largest contributor. Lastly, "currency in circulation outside banks" amounted to SAR230,456 million, contributing approximately 8.2% to the total money supply (M3).

Quasi-money deposits consist of residents' deposits in foreign currencies, deposits against letters of credit, outstanding transfers, and repurchase agreements (repos) conducted by banks with the private sector.

Domestic liquidity includes M1, which comprises currency in circulation outside banks in addition to demand deposits only, and M2, which includes M1 plus time and savings deposits. The broad definition, M3, includes M2 plus other quasi-money deposits.