The African-US summit will begin Tuesday within the framework of Washington's newly announced strategy to form a "real partnership" with the African continent.
US President Joe Biden will host the summit between Dec. 13 and 15, with 49 African leaders and heads of state participating.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is on the summit's agenda, and the dispute between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia stands out as one of the critical issues.
An Egyptian source confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who would head the Egyptian delegation at the summit, intends to raise the issue strongly in light of Cairo's firm position on the "existential" issue.
The source indicated that the issue requires a legally binding agreement to fill and operate the dam guaranteeing Egypt's water security under the principles of international law.
However, observers told Asharq Al-Awsat it was not possible to "create a breakthrough" in the issue amid the "expected" absence of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
They also explained that the Biden administration refuses to mediate directly to resolve the conflict and would only support the "faltering" efforts of the African Union (AU).
Ethiopia is in dispute with Egypt and Sudan over the dam, which has been under construction on the main tributary of the Nile since 2011.
Cairo said the dam threatens its water rights, calling for a "binding legal agreement," and Khartoum is weary of its environmental and economic damage.
Since April 2021, negotiations have faltered between the three countries, which prompted Egypt to protest at the UN Security Council, urging it to pressure Ethiopia through international partners to accept an agreement that satisfies all parties.
Head of the "Ethiopian Institute for Popular Diplomacy" in Sweden, Yassin Ahmed Baaqai, said President Sahle-Work Zewde will chair Ethiopia's delegation to the summit as Abiy Ahmed was not invited, citing "political considerations."
Baaqai considered Abiy Ahmed's absence, along with Sudan's exclusion after its AU membership suspension, an indication of "weak handling" of the GERD issue at the expense of other problems and challenges that unite African countries, such as the food and energy crisis and terrorism.
The expert told Asharq Al-Awsat he does not expect a significant breakthrough, noting that the summit would only include feeble attempts on its sidelines to bring views together amid the Biden administration's support for the Union's sponsorship of the file and its encouragement of tripartite negotiations.
In July, Biden stressed, after the Jeddah Summit for Security and Development, the "imperative of concluding an agreement on the filling and operation of the GERD without further delay," reiterating the importance of "forging a diplomatic resolution that would achieve the interests of all parties and contribute to a more peaceful and prosperous region."
The former Egyptian Foreign Minister, Ambassador Mohamed al-Orabi, considered the negotiations to require "real Ethiopian political will."
The diplomat told Asharq Al-Awsat that Addis Ababa has publicly announced its desire to resume negotiations, while in reality, it obstructs all settlement efforts, referring to its unilateral measures.
