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Congress to Establish Task Force to Monitor Iran's Nuclear Program

US Capitol Building (AFP)
US Capitol Building (AFP)
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Congress to Establish Task Force to Monitor Iran's Nuclear Program

US Capitol Building (AFP)
US Capitol Building (AFP)

The US Congress approved the inclusion of provisions from the Iran Nuclear Weapons Capability Monitoring Act of 2022, with bipartisan support to establish a State Department-led joint task force to monitor and regularly provide reports to Congress regarding Iran's nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

The lawmakers approved the bill noting that the task force shall submit a detailed report to the appropriate congressional committees every four months, including accurate information on the uranium enrichment program, the storage of nuclear materials, armament, and the missile program, that would pose a threat to US targets.

The bill has been included in next year's defense budget to be approved by Congress this week, ensuring decisive approval.

Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Bob Menendez welcomed the law's inclusion in the defense budget, saying the inclusion of the legislation to better track Iran's nuclear efforts in the NDAA is an important step forward as the US continues to look for creative ways to address Iran's illicit nuclear program fully.

The senator stressed the importance of the project, noting that its approval would contribute to boosting efforts to prevent Tehran from becoming a nuclear weapons state and potentially igniting a nuclear arms race in the most dangerous tinderbox in the world.

For his part, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham called on the US government to stay "focused on monitoring Iranian nuclear ambitions."

Graham said the extra monitoring would make it harder for Iran to break out in a nuclear fashion.

Project details

The draft requires the Secretary of State to form a task force that includes officials from the State Department, Intelligence, and the Ministry of Energy, specialized in monitoring Iran's nuclear program, provided that it submits an immediate report to Congress within 72 hours of the receipt of intelligence on the development in the nuclear weapons capabilities.

The bill requires the administration to submit an annual "comprehensive plan for engaging with allies and regional partners" in all relevant multilateral fora to address such nuclear weapons and missile activities.

It must also include a description of a coordinated whole-of-government approach to use political, economic, and security-related tools to address such activities.

The unclassified portion of the report required shall be made available to the public on an internet website of the Department of State.

The bill clearly stated that Congress should push for any necessary steps to ensure that the Iranian Republic does not develop a nuclear weapons capability, referring to the military option that the administration did not rule out in its recent statements.

The lawmakers' request is not limited to Iran only but extends to its regional agents and destabilizing activities to provide Congress with a clear picture of Iran's malign activities at the domestic and international levels.

It also includes drone development activities and details of the United States' efforts to counter Iran's political and military influence.

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Iran Awaits Trump's Policy on its Nuclear Program

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
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Iran Awaits Trump's Policy on its Nuclear Program

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)

One of the many complex foreign policy problems that Donald Trump will inherit when he takes office in just over two weeks is Iran, according to the US Council on Foreign Relations.

Iran is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power, its robust ballistic missile program continues to progress, and it sees the United States as the main obstacle to its domination of the Middle East, the Council wrote in an analysis.

“How will Trump respond,” it then asked, “That question is easy to answer because Trump has been consistent about his plans. He will return to his first administration’s policy of “maximum pressure.”

That effort sought to turn the economic screws on Iran by expanding US sanctions against it and ratcheting up the enforcement of sanctions already in place.

“The goal was not regime change but rather forcing Tehran to limit its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and curb support for the regional militias that made up the so-called axis of resistance,” the Council said.

It added that although maximum pressure squeezed the Iranian economy, it failed to force Tehran to the bargaining table.

The Council said even as its economy faltered and its foreign reserves dwindled, Iran continued its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, expanded its support for its regional proxies, and even launched a missile attack against a US base in Iraq in 2020.

“Would the maximum pressure campaign have paid off had the Biden administration kept it in place? Trump thinks so,” it wrote.

The Council said evidence on that score is mixed.

“Israel’s wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, have weakened Iran’s position in the region. Its proxies are fewer and weaker than just six months ago.”

Beyond that, Israel’s October retaliatory air strikes destroyed much of Iran’s air defenses, leaving it open to further military attacks.

Nuclear Program

According to the Council, that vulnerability, coupled with Iran’s economic woes and domestic unrest, may be why Iran’s foreign minister said that Iran is looking to resume nuclear talks.

By the same token, however, a maximum pressure strategy takes time to work.

“That could be in short supply, at least when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program,” according to the Council.

It said Iran intensified its uranium-enrichment efforts after Trump terminated the 2015 nuclear deal that the Obama administration negotiated.

By most estimates, it added, Iran can now build a small number of nuclear weapons within weeks of deciding to cross the nuclear threshold.

The Council on Foreign Relations also noted that other great powers will also undermine the maximum pressure policy.

“China and Russia have both skirted or ignored existing US and multilateral sanctions on Iran. They are unlikely to comply with them now unless they get something significant from the United States in return,” it said.

The Council also showed that Trump may be unwilling or unable to provide that enticement. “If Tehran believes that Beijing and Moscow have its back, resistance becomes a more feasible strategy. Tehran could even use negotiations as a way to buy time to address its vulnerabilities,” it added.

Negotiations in Good Faith

Even if Iran enters into negotiations in good faith, Trump’s efforts could stumble over deciding what deal is good enough, the Council wrote.

It said the ideological diversity of his team, composed as it is of hardliners and American Firsters, makes it likely they will argue over what Tehran needs to concede to make a deal worthwhile. That internal division could torpedo the effort to get a deal.

“All of this raises the question of what happens if talks either do not begin or, perhaps more likely, go nowhere once they do,” the Council noted.

It said calls for the US to attack Iran’s nuclear sites are likely to mount if the maximum pressure campaign does not produce quick results. “Trump will also likely hear calls that he should encourage Israel to attack Iran, though Israel lacks the capability to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.”

According to the Council, Tehran will be assessing Trump’s willingness to use military force, as well as Israel’s military capabilities, as it thinks about negotiations.

It said Iranian leaders know he ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020, spoke on the campaign trail about blowing Iran “to smithereens” and has said that Israel should hit Iran’s nuclear sites.

But they also know that he campaigned against America’s “forever wars” in the Middle East while boasting, wrongly, that he is “the only president in seventy-two years” that “had no wars.”

According to the Council, resorting to military force, whether with direct US action or by encouraging Israel to attack, would be a major roll of the dice.

“It might succeed beyond its planners’ wildest dreams and usher in a new, more peaceful era in the Middle East,” it said.

Or, like the invasion of Iraq, it may open a Pandora’s Box of problems that will haunt the region and the United States for years to come, the Council showed.

But letting Iran continue its nuclear and ballistic missile programs while it rebuilds its axis of resistance has costs of its own, it noted.

Therefore, the Council said some hope that a return to the maximum pressure strategy works.