Oil Rises $1 on Russian Supply Worries; US Storm Impact in Focus

An oil platform operated by Lukoil company is pictured from a helicopter carrying members of a local election committee and journalists during the early voting for the parliamentary election, at the Kravtsovskoye oilfield in the Baltic Sea, Russia September 16, 2021. (Reuters)
An oil platform operated by Lukoil company is pictured from a helicopter carrying members of a local election committee and journalists during the early voting for the parliamentary election, at the Kravtsovskoye oilfield in the Baltic Sea, Russia September 16, 2021. (Reuters)
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Oil Rises $1 on Russian Supply Worries; US Storm Impact in Focus

An oil platform operated by Lukoil company is pictured from a helicopter carrying members of a local election committee and journalists during the early voting for the parliamentary election, at the Kravtsovskoye oilfield in the Baltic Sea, Russia September 16, 2021. (Reuters)
An oil platform operated by Lukoil company is pictured from a helicopter carrying members of a local election committee and journalists during the early voting for the parliamentary election, at the Kravtsovskoye oilfield in the Baltic Sea, Russia September 16, 2021. (Reuters)

Oil prices rose more than $1 on Friday on expectations of a drop in Russian crude supply, which helped offset worries of a hit to US transport fuel demand growth as a looming Arctic storm threatens travel during the holiday season.

Brent crude was up by 73 cents, or 0.9%, to $81.71 a barrel by 0715 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $78.40 a barrel, up 91 cents, or 1.2% higher.

They hit highs of $82.17 and $78.77, respectively, earlier in the session. Both contracts were on track to post a second weekly gain, with Brent up 3.3% and WTI up 5.5%.

Russia's Baltic oil exports could fall by 20% in December from the previous month after the European Union and G7 nations imposed sanctions and a price cap on Russian crude from Dec. 5, according to traders and Reuters calculations.

Russia may cut oil output by 5%-7% in early 2023 as it responds to price caps on its crude and oil products by halting sales to the countries which support them, the RIA news agency cited Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying on Friday.

"Crude prices are higher as energy traders focus on Moscow's response to the price cap put on Russian oil and not so much the thousands of flight cancellations that will disrupt holiday travel," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said.

More than 4,400 US flights have been cancelled over a two-day period due to the winter storm, coinciding with a holiday travel season that some predict could be the busiest ever.

On Thursday, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic settled lower as flights were scrapped. The snow storm could also upend motorists' plans to travel during Christmas and New Year, curbing gasoline consumption.

However, heating oil demand could be boosted as the extreme weather is expected to cause power outages.

"As US crude oil inventories fall and winter storms hit the US, cold temperatures are expected to extend southward to Texas, Florida, and the eastern states. Demand for heating oil will soar," Leon Li, an analyst at CMC Markets, said.

US crude stocks fell more than expected in the week to Dec. 16 as imports dropped sharply, the Energy Information Administration said, with inventories falling by 5.9 million barrels to 418.2 million barrels versus forecasts for a 1.7 million-barrel drop.

However, surging COVID-19 cases in the world's No.2 oil consumer China, concerns about further rate hikes globally and recession curbing fuel consumption limited oil's price gains.

"The oil market's biggest wildcard is China and optimism is still strong that the reopening will continue and eventually lead to more demand," OANDA's Moya said.



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.