Sharp Divisions within Iraq’s Coordination Framework

 The wreckage of the two cars, in which Soleimani and Al-Muhandis were killed, are exposed near Baghdad Airport. (AP)
The wreckage of the two cars, in which Soleimani and Al-Muhandis were killed, are exposed near Baghdad Airport. (AP)
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Sharp Divisions within Iraq’s Coordination Framework

 The wreckage of the two cars, in which Soleimani and Al-Muhandis were killed, are exposed near Baghdad Airport. (AP)
The wreckage of the two cars, in which Soleimani and Al-Muhandis were killed, are exposed near Baghdad Airport. (AP)

Iraqi political sources said on Tuesday that the third anniversary of the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani has sparked sharp divisions between the parties of the Coordination Framework, following reports that the government of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani agreed to a US request to prevent a “million-strong memorial march” for Soleimani in the country.

The Iranian general was killed in a US strike near Baghdad Airport on Jan. 3, 2020.

Limited activities were held on Tuesday to commemorate the event. An official celebration for the supporters of the Coordination Framework was not attended by senior officials, amid suspicions that these divisions will further deepen at the political level.

An informed political source told Asharq Al-Awsat that leaders in the Coordination Framework “feared a recurrence of scenes of angry crowds in the vicinity of the US embassy if the supporters were allowed to commemorate Soleimani’s killing without restrictions.”

Other leaders, according to the same source, “preferred to spare al-Sudani any embarrassment with the Americans, with whom he enjoys good relations…”

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a leader in the Coordination Framework said that the Americans “informed [the Framework] during the negotiations to form the Sudanese government of their absolute rejection of any demonstrations or protest movement against Washington in Baghdad.

“It is most likely that the leaders [in the Framework] has agreed to that,” he underlined.

Activists close to the armed factions published a torrent of angry tweets, accusing the government of complicity to prevent “the loyalists from organizing the march.”

Issam al-Asadi, a politician close to Al-Sadr Movement, said that the Framework prevented any forms of tribute to Soleimani for fear of angering the Americans.

The source expected that the dispute over the commemoration of the Iranian general’s death would open the way for a new rift within the Coordination Framework.



Israel Pessimistic about Ceasefire Deal with Lebanon

Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)
Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)
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Israel Pessimistic about Ceasefire Deal with Lebanon

Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)
Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)

The United States' special envoy for the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, decided to extend his visit to Beirut until Wednesday, political sources in Tel Aviv said. The envoy, who was expected in Israel on Wednesday morning, will arrive there by Thursday at the latest.

Despite the positive signals from Washington about Hochstein’s visit to the Lebanese capital, Israelis cast doubt on the likelihood that a deal could be reached to end the war on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The sources said US officials are very serious about reaching a possible ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war. “Coordination is ongoing between the administration of President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, who are both determined to end the war,” the sources stressed.

As evidence, they said, Washington has decided to place a US general at the head of a military technical committee tasked to achieve the total deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon.

However, Israel is skeptical. It believes Hezbollah is maneuvering and will not accept the Israeli terms of the US proposal.

The sources said the Israeli army is indirectly taking part in the Hochstein-led negotiations by exerting pressure on Lebanon and intensifying its attacks on the capital, not just its southern suburbs where Hezbollah has a strong presence, as well as the South and eastern Bekaa region.

Former head of Israeli Defense Intelligence Professor Amos Yadlin, who held a meeting with Hochstein recently, revealed that the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon is making great progress.

He said a deal could be announced this weekend. “The most important thing is that the agreement between Israel and Washington on the US guarantees is ready. If an agreement is reached in Beirut on those guarantees, a ceasefire deal will be signed and put into effect,” Yadlin said.

Biden sent a message to Israel that the US administration will not only serve as a guarantor to Israel, but it has also given it legitimacy in its right to self-defense, he revealed.

“In Washington, they agree with us that Israel has cancelled its known MABAM doctrine (the ‘war between the wars’), and is now ready to wage a war whenever it is attacked. Hochstein and other mutual friends of Israel and Lebanon have made this clear, but this policy has to be understood in Lebanon, Syria and Iran,” he added.

Meanwhile, the majority of officials close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain pessimistic about reaching a ceasefire deal with Lebanon.

The right-wing newspaper Israel Hayom quoted an Israeli political source as saying that “an agreement is not likely to be reached in the near future.”

Instead, it said, the Israeli military has approved plans to attack the southern suburbs of Beirut, carry out assassinations wherever possible, even in the majority-Christian part of east Beirut and continue to target Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.

On Tuesday, Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right minister of finance, said, “We will not agree to any arrangement that is not worth the paper it is written on.”

Addressing the ceasefire efforts, Netanyahu told a Knesset meeting that “the important thing is not the piece of paper.”