Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



South Korea Former PM Launches Presidential Bid

Han Duck-soo became acting president after Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment. Anthony WALLACE / AFP
Han Duck-soo became acting president after Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment. Anthony WALLACE / AFP
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South Korea Former PM Launches Presidential Bid

Han Duck-soo became acting president after Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment. Anthony WALLACE / AFP
Han Duck-soo became acting president after Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment. Anthony WALLACE / AFP

South Korea's former prime minister Han Duck-soo announced his bid for the presidency on Friday, joining the race in a snap election triggered by the impeachment of the ex-president.

The June 3 vote will decide who replaces impeached former president Yoon Suk Yeol, who was removed from office over his ill-fated declaration of martial law in December that sank South Korea into prolonged political turmoil.

Political instability in the country intensified Thursday after a retrial was ordered for a presidential frontrunner over alleged election law violations, and as two key government figures -- including Han -- resigned.

Han had hinted at a possible presidential bid when he resigned as acting president and prime minister on Thursday, suggesting that he was willing to "take on a greater responsibility".

"For the future of the Republic of Korea, a country I deeply love, and for all of us, I have decided to do what I can," Han said in a televised speech on Friday.

"I will do my utmost to be chosen by our people in this presidential election."

The former prime minister took over as the country's acting president after Yoon was impeached by parliament in December.

The 75-year-old career bureaucrat is expected to team up with Yoon's People Power Party to launch a unified conservative campaign against liberal frontrunner Lee Jae-myung.

Across both liberal and conservative governments, Han has held a range of senior roles, including finance minister, trade minister and the country's ambassador to the US.

Notably, Han has twice served as prime minister, first under late former president Roh Moo-hyun and more recently under Yoon.

"I have dedicated my life to serving on the front lines of economic development as a proud public servant of the Republic of Korea," Han said, pledging that he will tackle the ongoing crisis in trade involving Washington's tariffs.

He also vowed to amend the Constitution to shorten the presidential term.

South Korea's single five-year presidential term has long faced criticism for concentrating excessive power in one individual, with critics accusing it of lacking sufficient checks and balances.

Han's announcement comes a day after the country's highest court overturned a ruling that found frontrunner Lee not guilty of making false statements during a previous campaign, potentially scuppering his chances of running in the election next month.

On the same day, finance minister Choi Sang-mok, set to replace Han as acting president, stepped down as opposition lawmakers voted on his impeachment over alleged involvement in the martial law incident, among others.

The impeachment procedure was suspended after Choi's resignation.