Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Danish PM Arrives in Greenland for Three-Day Visit amid Trump Pressure

Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, right, and her husband Bo Tengberg is greeted by Greenland's Acting Head of Government, Múte B. Egede after arriving at Nuuk airport, Greenland, Wednesday, April 2, 2025. (Ritzau Scanpix via AP)
Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, right, and her husband Bo Tengberg is greeted by Greenland's Acting Head of Government, Múte B. Egede after arriving at Nuuk airport, Greenland, Wednesday, April 2, 2025. (Ritzau Scanpix via AP)
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Danish PM Arrives in Greenland for Three-Day Visit amid Trump Pressure

Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, right, and her husband Bo Tengberg is greeted by Greenland's Acting Head of Government, Múte B. Egede after arriving at Nuuk airport, Greenland, Wednesday, April 2, 2025. (Ritzau Scanpix via AP)
Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, right, and her husband Bo Tengberg is greeted by Greenland's Acting Head of Government, Múte B. Egede after arriving at Nuuk airport, Greenland, Wednesday, April 2, 2025. (Ritzau Scanpix via AP)

Denmark's prime minister landed in Greenland on Wednesday for talks with the Danish semi-autonomous territory's incoming government, following US President Donald Trump's repeated expressions of interest in controlling the vast Arctic island.

Mette Frederiksen begins her three-day trip less than a week after a visit to the territory by US Vice President JD Vance received a frosty reception from authorities in Denmark and Greenland.

The Danish leader said ahead of her visit that she aims to strengthen Copenhagen's ties with the island and emphasized the importance of respectful cooperation amid what she described as "great pressure on Greenland".

Frederiksen was expected to speak to the media later on Wednesday.

Greenland's incoming Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen, who won last month's parliamentary election and will form a coalition government, has welcomed Frederiksen's trip, saying on Monday that Denmark remains "Greenland's closest partner".

Nielsen's new coalition is expected to formally take office on April 7.

Relations between Greenland and Denmark have been strained after revelations in recent years of historical mistreatment of Greenlanders under colonial rule. However, Trump's interest in controlling Greenland, part of a growing international focus on competition for influence in the Arctic, has prompted Denmark to hasten work to improve ties with the island.

Nielsen told Reuters late on Monday that Greenland would strengthen its ties with Denmark until it could fulfil its ultimate wish to become a sovereign nation.

'RESPECTFUL'

Meanwhile, Greenland wishes to establish a "respectful" relationship with the United States, he said.

"Talking about annexation and talking about acquiring Greenland and not respecting the sovereignty is not respectful. So let's start by being respectful to each other and build up a great partnership on everything," he said.

Frederiksen's visit is primarily about signaling support at a time of intense scrutiny, said Ulrik Pram Gad, an academic at the Danish Institute for International Studies.

"It is important for Denmark to signal to Greenland that Denmark is Greenland's closest friend and ally - and to the US that it stands behind Greenland," he said.

During his visit to a US military base in northern Greenland last Friday, Vance accused Denmark of not doing a good job of keeping the island safe and suggested the United States would better protect the strategically-located territory.

Frederiksen, who has said it is up to the people of Greenland to decide their own future, called Vance's description of Denmark "not fair".

Opinion polls show that a majority of Greenland's 57,000 inhabitants support independence from Denmark, but many oppose seeking independence too quickly, fearing their island could become worse off and expose itself to US interests.