Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
TT
20

Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Ukraine Says Russian Attacks Wound 21 Overnight

Members of the artillery unit of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade fire a small multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) towards Russian troops in a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine April 8, 2025. Andriy Andriyenko/Press Service of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS
Members of the artillery unit of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade fire a small multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) towards Russian troops in a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine April 8, 2025. Andriy Andriyenko/Press Service of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS
TT
20

Ukraine Says Russian Attacks Wound 21 Overnight

Members of the artillery unit of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade fire a small multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) towards Russian troops in a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine April 8, 2025. Andriy Andriyenko/Press Service of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS
Members of the artillery unit of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade fire a small multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) towards Russian troops in a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine April 8, 2025. Andriy Andriyenko/Press Service of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS

At least 21 Ukrainians were wounded during Russian attacks across the country overnight, regional officials said on Wednesday, as Moscow stepped up its aerial bombardment despite US efforts to secure a ceasefire.

The worst attack left 15 people wounded in the central Ukrainian industrial region of Dnipropetrovsk, the governor Sergiy Lysak wrote on social media, according to AFP.

He posted images of several damaged buildings and said the victims were between 18 and 87 years old, adding that eight people were admitted to hospital.

The Ukrainian air force said that Moscow had launched 55 drones overnight and that its air defense units shot down 32 of the unmanned aerial attack aircraft.

In the eastern region of Donetsk, which the Kremlin claims is part of Russia, the governor said three people were wounded -- an 11-year-old girl, her mother and grandmother -- in a "massive" drone attack on the frontline city of Kramatorsk.

In the Zaporizhzhia region, another that the Kremlin says it annexed in late 2022, authorities said a 60-year-old man was wounded.

In the eastern Kharkiv region that borders Russia, a 65-year-old man and 50-year-old woman were wounded in an attack on civilian enterprises, local officials said.

US President Donald Trump's administration has held several rounds of talks with both Ukrainian and Russian officials hoping to secure a halt in fighting, without seeing any tangible results.

The Russian defense ministry, meanwhile, said it had shot down 158 Ukrainian drones over the west and south of the country, temporarily disrupting operations at several civilian airports.