Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Iran Says it Would Resume Nuclear Talks with US if Guaranteed No Further Attacks

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia June 23, 2025. Sputnik/Sergei Karpukhin/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia June 23, 2025. Sputnik/Sergei Karpukhin/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
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Iran Says it Would Resume Nuclear Talks with US if Guaranteed No Further Attacks

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia June 23, 2025. Sputnik/Sergei Karpukhin/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia June 23, 2025. Sputnik/Sergei Karpukhin/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

Iran’s foreign minister said Saturday that his country would accept a resumption of nuclear talks with the US if there were assurances of no more attacks against it, state media reported.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a speech to Tehran-based foreign diplomats that Iran has always been ready and will be ready in the future for talks about its nuclear program, but, “assurance should be provided that in case of a resumption of talks, the trend will not lead to war.”

Referring to the 12-day Israeli bombardment of Iran's nuclear and military sites, and the US strike on June 22, Araghchi said that if the US and others wish to resume talks with Iran, "first of all, there should be a firm guarantee that such actions will not be repeated. The attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has made it more difficult and complicated to achieve a solution based on negotiations.”

Following the strikes, Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, which led to the departure of inspectors.

Araghchi said that under Iranian law, the country will answer the agency’s request for cooperation "case by case,” based on Iran’s interests. He also said any inspection by the agency should be done based on Iran's “security” concerns as well as the safety of the inspectors. “The risk of proliferation of radioactive ingredients and an explosion of ammunition that remains from the war in the attacked nuclear sites is serious,” he said.

"The risk of spreading radioactive materials and the risk of exploding leftover munitions ... are serious," he added.

"For us, IAEA inspectors approaching nuclear sites has both a security aspect ... and the safety of the inspectors themselves is a matter that must be examined."

He also reiterated Iran's position on the need to continue enriching uranium on its soil. US President Donald Trump has insisted that cannot happen.

Israel claims it acted because Tehran was within reach of a nuclear weapon. US intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency had assessed Iran last had an organized nuclear weapons program in 2003, though Tehran had been enriching uranium up to 60% — a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in an interview published Monday said the US airstrikes so badly damaged his country’s nuclear facilities that Iranian authorities still have not been able to access them to survey the destruction.