Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Russian War Bloggers Report New Ukrainian Attack in Kursk Region

People wait at a bus stop next to a reinforced concrete bomb shelter installed in a street in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, in Kursk, Russia August 28, 2024. The sign on the construction reads: "Shelter". REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
People wait at a bus stop next to a reinforced concrete bomb shelter installed in a street in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, in Kursk, Russia August 28, 2024. The sign on the construction reads: "Shelter". REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Russian War Bloggers Report New Ukrainian Attack in Kursk Region

People wait at a bus stop next to a reinforced concrete bomb shelter installed in a street in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, in Kursk, Russia August 28, 2024. The sign on the construction reads: "Shelter". REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
People wait at a bus stop next to a reinforced concrete bomb shelter installed in a street in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, in Kursk, Russia August 28, 2024. The sign on the construction reads: "Shelter". REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Ukrainian forces have launched a major new attack in Russia's western Kursk region, Russian military bloggers reported on Sunday.
Ukrainian troops broke across the border in a surprise incursion on Aug. 6, and for the past five months have resisted Russian attempts to expel them.
Reports from the Russian bloggers, who support Moscow's war in Ukraine but have often reported critically on failings and setbacks, indicated that the latest Ukrainian assault had put Russian forces on the defensive.
"Despite strong pressure from the enemy, our units are heroically holding the line," the Operativnye Svodki (Operational Reports) channel said.
It said artillery and small-arms battles were taking place, and Ukraine was using Western-armored vehicles to bring in large numbers of infantry.
The reports, which Reuters could not independently verify, said fighting was concentrated near the town of Bolshoye Soldatskoye.
But one influential blogger, Yuri Podolyak, said this was most likely a Ukrainian distraction manoeuvre, possibly to prepare a strike on Glushkovo, further west. He recommended civilians there and in another town, Korenevo, to evacuate.
Ukrainian and Western assessments say that some 11,000 troops from Russia's ally North Korea have been deployed in the Kursk region to support Moscow's forces. Russia has neither confirmed nor denied their presence.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that Russian and North Korean forces had suffered heavy losses.
"In battles yesterday and today near just one village, Makhnovka, in Kursk region, the Russian army lost up to a battalion of North Korean infantry soldiers and Russian paratroops," Zelenskiy said. "This is significant."
The president provided no specific details. A battalion can vary in size but is generally made up of several hundred troops.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in response to a question at his marathon annual phone-in last month that Russia would definitely drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk but declined to set a date for when this would happen.
Russia's defense ministry did not mention Kursk in its latest battlefield update on Sunday.
BARGAINING CHIP
Ukraine's unexpected success in biting off a slice of Russian territory and holding on to it since last August could provide it with an important bargaining chip as both sides gear up for possible peace talks this year.
Both have been striving to improve their battlefield positions before US President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in on Jan. 20. Trump has repeatedly said he will bring a quick end to the war, but without saying how.
By committing some of its most effective units to the Kursk offensive, Ukraine has, however, weakened the defense of its own eastern regions where Russian forces have advanced since August at their most rapid pace since 2022.
The Ukrainian military said on Saturday that the "hottest" front was near Pokrovsk, an important road and rail hub towards which Russia has been pressing for months.
On Sunday, Ukraine's air defenses shot down 61 out of 103 drones launched by Russia in an overnight attack, the air force said. Russia said it had destroyed five Ukrainian drones over Russian territory.