Vacuum Threatens Vital State Positions in Lebanon

Pictures of former presidents in the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon (EPA)
Pictures of former presidents in the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon (EPA)
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Vacuum Threatens Vital State Positions in Lebanon

Pictures of former presidents in the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon (EPA)
Pictures of former presidents in the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon (EPA)

Institutional collapse in Lebanon is accelerating in a way that has left the country unable to manage the crises it has been facing for the past three years. Vacuum not only ails the Lebanese presidency or government, but it also threatens vital state positions.

For example, the mandate of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh expires in August. In 45 days, the general director of the General Directorate of General Security, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, will also retire.

General managers of government offices will be leaving their positions in upcoming months.

The Lebanese fear that vacuum will infect more state institutions in the coming phase as more officials are slated to retire.

Each of the Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, Director-General of the Internal Security Forces Major General Imad Osman and Public Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oweidat are lined up for retirement in the coming period.

This will certainly raise the level of political confrontation between the components of the current authority.

Disputes would certainly arise if the caretaker government tries to fill the gaps by appointing replacements or granting extensions to incumbent officials.

Advisor to Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and former minister Nicolas Nahas asserted that “the battle for the presidential vacuum will not extend to the cabinet.”

Nahas affirmed that Mikati “will carry out his duties by making appointments that fall within the narrow limits of caretaker governance.”

In a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat, Nahas confirmed that “the prime minister is obligated to apply the constitution and to call the cabinet to convene, otherwise he will be subject to accountability and trial if he does not exercise these powers.”

Main positions in the Lebanese state are distributed over 179 jobs of the first category. Dozens of these posts will become vacant this year. Several positions had already gone unfilled in the second half of 2022.

The political authority was unable to make appointments to fill the vacancies because of failure to form a new government after the parliamentary elections that took place in mid-May.

Mohammad Chamseddine, a researcher at Information International, an independent regional research and consultancy firm based in Beirut, points out that “73 public jobs will be rendered vacant in 2023.”

“This would have a negative impact on the performance of public institutions,” noted Chamseddine.

“The inability to elect a president for Lebanon this year will exacerbate the crisis further and push for a greater vacuum,” he explained.

“In 2024, General Aoun, Major General Osman, Judge Ghassan Oweidat, and general directors in various ministries and departments will be referred to retirement,” reminded Chamseddine. 



On Lebanon Border, Israel and Hezbollah’s Deadly Game of Patience

Smoke is seen as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is intercepted following its launch from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, at Kibbutz Eilon in northern Israel, July 23, 2024. (Reuters)
Smoke is seen as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is intercepted following its launch from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, at Kibbutz Eilon in northern Israel, July 23, 2024. (Reuters)
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On Lebanon Border, Israel and Hezbollah’s Deadly Game of Patience

Smoke is seen as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is intercepted following its launch from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, at Kibbutz Eilon in northern Israel, July 23, 2024. (Reuters)
Smoke is seen as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is intercepted following its launch from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, at Kibbutz Eilon in northern Israel, July 23, 2024. (Reuters)

In deserted villages and communities near the southern Lebanon border, Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters have watched each other for months, shifting and adapting in a battle for the upper hand while they wait to see if a full scale war will come.

Ever since the start of the Gaza war last October, the two sides have exchanged daily barrages of rockets, artillery, missile fire and air strikes in a standoff that has just stopped short of full-scale war.

Tens of thousands have been evacuated from both sides of the border, and hopes that children may be able to return for the start of the new school year in September appear to have been dashed following an announcement by Israeli Education Minister Yoav Kisch on Tuesday that conditions would not allow it.

"The war is almost the same for the past nine months," Lieutenant Colonel Dotan, an Israeli officer, who could only be identified by his first name. "We have good days of hitting Hezbollah and bad days where they hit us. It's almost the same, all year, all the nine months."

As the summer approaches its peak, the smoke trails of drones and rockets in the sky have become a daily sight, with missiles regularly setting off brush fires in the thickly wooded hills along the border.

Israeli strikes have killed nearly 350 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and more than 100 civilians, including medics, children and journalists, while 10 Israeli civilians, a foreign agricultural worker and 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed.

Even so, as the cross border firing has continued, Israeli forces have been training for a possible offensive in Lebanon which would dramatically increase the risk of a wider regional war, potentially involving Iran and the United States.

That risk was underlined at the weekend when the Yemen-based Houthis, a militia which like Hezbollah is backed by Iran, sent a drone to Tel Aviv where it caused a blast that killed a man and prompted Israel to launch a retaliatory raid the next day.

Standing in his home kibbutz of Eilon, where only about 150 farmers and security guards remain from a normal population of 1,100, Lt. Colonet Dotan said the two sides have been testing each other for months, in a constantly evolving tactical battle.

"This war taught us patience," said Dotan. "In the Middle East, you need patience."

He said Israeli troops had seen an increasing use of Iranian drones, of a type frequently seen in Ukraine, as well as Russian-made Kornet anti tank missiles which were increasingly targeting houses as Israeli tank forces adapted their own tactics in response.

"Hezbollah is a fast-learning organization and they understood that UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) are the next big thing and so they went and bought and got trained in UAVs," he said.

Israel had responded by adapting its Iron Dome air defense system and focusing its own operations on weakening Hezbollah's organizational structure by attacking its experienced commanders, such as Ali Jaafar Maatuk, a field commander in the elite Radwan forces unit who was killed last week.

"So that's another weak point we found. We target them and we look for them on a daily basis," he said.

Even so, as the months have passed, the wait has not been easy for Israeli troops brought up in a doctrine of maneuver and rapid offensive operations.

"When you're on defense, you can't defeat the enemy. We understand that, we have no expectations," he said, "So we have to wait. It's a patience game."