Vacuum Threatens Vital State Positions in Lebanon

Pictures of former presidents in the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon (EPA)
Pictures of former presidents in the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon (EPA)
TT

Vacuum Threatens Vital State Positions in Lebanon

Pictures of former presidents in the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon (EPA)
Pictures of former presidents in the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon (EPA)

Institutional collapse in Lebanon is accelerating in a way that has left the country unable to manage the crises it has been facing for the past three years. Vacuum not only ails the Lebanese presidency or government, but it also threatens vital state positions.

For example, the mandate of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh expires in August. In 45 days, the general director of the General Directorate of General Security, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, will also retire.

General managers of government offices will be leaving their positions in upcoming months.

The Lebanese fear that vacuum will infect more state institutions in the coming phase as more officials are slated to retire.

Each of the Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, Director-General of the Internal Security Forces Major General Imad Osman and Public Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oweidat are lined up for retirement in the coming period.

This will certainly raise the level of political confrontation between the components of the current authority.

Disputes would certainly arise if the caretaker government tries to fill the gaps by appointing replacements or granting extensions to incumbent officials.

Advisor to Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and former minister Nicolas Nahas asserted that “the battle for the presidential vacuum will not extend to the cabinet.”

Nahas affirmed that Mikati “will carry out his duties by making appointments that fall within the narrow limits of caretaker governance.”

In a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat, Nahas confirmed that “the prime minister is obligated to apply the constitution and to call the cabinet to convene, otherwise he will be subject to accountability and trial if he does not exercise these powers.”

Main positions in the Lebanese state are distributed over 179 jobs of the first category. Dozens of these posts will become vacant this year. Several positions had already gone unfilled in the second half of 2022.

The political authority was unable to make appointments to fill the vacancies because of failure to form a new government after the parliamentary elections that took place in mid-May.

Mohammad Chamseddine, a researcher at Information International, an independent regional research and consultancy firm based in Beirut, points out that “73 public jobs will be rendered vacant in 2023.”

“This would have a negative impact on the performance of public institutions,” noted Chamseddine.

“The inability to elect a president for Lebanon this year will exacerbate the crisis further and push for a greater vacuum,” he explained.

“In 2024, General Aoun, Major General Osman, Judge Ghassan Oweidat, and general directors in various ministries and departments will be referred to retirement,” reminded Chamseddine. 



Biden Will Step Aside in the 2024 Race. What Happens Next?

A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
TT

Biden Will Step Aside in the 2024 Race. What Happens Next?

A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)

President Joe Biden said on Sunday he would withdraw from the 2024 presidential election race, putting the United States into uncharted territory.

Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee.

Before Biden's decision was made, Reuters spoke to Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think-tank, a Democratic National Committee member and author of the book "Primary Politics" about the presidential nominating process, who explained how the process could work. Reuters also spoke to legal experts and Democratic Party officials.

Q: WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

A: Biden has spent the last several months accruing nearly 4,000 Democratic delegates by winning primary elections in US states and territories.

Those delegates would normally vote for him to be the party's official presidential nominee at the Democratic National Convention, which is to take place Aug. 19-22, but the rules do not bind or force them to do so. Delegates can vote with their conscience, which means they could throw their vote to someone else.

By stepping aside, Biden is effectively "releasing" his delegates, potentially sparking a competition among other Democratic candidates to become the nominee.

Within hours of Biden's announcement, Harris' allies were working the phones - calling delegates and party chairs to get their backing, sources told Reuters.

Q: WHO COULD REPLACE BIDEN?

A: Several candidates could step into the fray.

Harris is at the top of the list, but she has had her own problems after a rocky start as vice president and poor polling numbers. The US Constitution dictates that the vice president becomes president if the president dies or becomes incapacitated, but it does not weigh in on an inter-party process for choosing a nominee.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker have all been floated as possible replacements. Up until now they have been Biden supporters working to help get him elected, and Whitmer has said she supports Harris.

Q: HOW WILL A NOMINEE BE CHOSEN?

A: There could be a free-for-all of sorts between the Democratic heavyweights vying for the job.

According to Ballotpedia, there are expected to be some 4,672 delegates in 2024, including 3,933 pledged delegates and 739 so-called superdelegates - senior party members.

In order to secure the nomination, a candidate would need to get a majority - that is, more votes than all the others combined.

That's what Harris' allies are trying to do right now - secure the pledged support of 1,969 delegates, and shut down any competition.

If no one achieves that, then there would be a "brokered convention" where the delegates act as free agents and negotiate with the party leadership. Rules would be established and there would be roll-call votes for names placed into nomination.

It could take several rounds of voting for someone to get a majority and become the nominee. The last brokered convention when Democrats failed to nominate a candidate on the first ballot was in 1952.

WHAT HAPPENS TO BIDEN'S CAMPAIGN CASH?

The Biden-Harris campaign had $91 million in the bank at the end of May, but experts on campaign finance law disagree on how readily the money could change hands.

Because Harris is also on the campaign filing documents, many experts believe the money could be transferred over to her if she is on the ticket. There is some debate about whether Biden would need to be officially nominated first as the party's candidate before a transfer could be made.