How Did Egypt Get Close to Announcing ‘End of Terrorism’?

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi monitoring revision of Sinai development projects (Egyptian Presidency)
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi monitoring revision of Sinai development projects (Egyptian Presidency)
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How Did Egypt Get Close to Announcing ‘End of Terrorism’?

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi monitoring revision of Sinai development projects (Egyptian Presidency)
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi monitoring revision of Sinai development projects (Egyptian Presidency)

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has repeatedly made statements about his country succeeding in eliminating terrorism to a large extent. These claims have raised many questions about the steps Egypt has taken to fight terrorism.
Sisi had announced that Egypt will organize a massive celebration in the North Sinai Governorate.

The Egyptian governorate, over the past years, has been ailed by the presence of extremist groups.

The Egyptian army and police forces have launched a major security operation in north and central Sinai since February 2018 to purge the area from takfiris loyal to the terrorist organization ISIS. The campaign was named “Comprehensive Operation Sinai.”

Today, Sinai is witnessing many development projects for the restoration of its infrastructure. Recently, the region was visited by several ministers and officials.

Sisi noted that the North Sinai city of al-Arish witnessed the landing of a plane carrying Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly for the first time in almost eight years.

“We were not able to hold a (celebration) when al-Arish and Rafah were in the state they were seven years ago,” added the president.

Sisi mentioned general information about the planned celebration in al-Arish.

He said it would be a memorable one, noting that the event will also take place in other Sinai cities that suffered from terrorism in the past years, including Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid.

Sisi’s announcement signals stability and calm in Sinai after years of fighting “terrorism.”

In December 2017, unidentified attackers shelled al-Arish airport. The attack took place during a visit to the city by the Egyptian ministers of defense and interior.

At the time, the Egyptian army announced that an officer was killed, and two others were injured in the attack.

Madbouly, alongside seven ministers, had visited North Sinai in mid-January.

“The state, with all its affiliated bodies, has exerted arduous efforts to uproot terrorism in Sinai and at the same time establish development projects,” affirmed Madbouly.

Madbouly said the security situation in the governorate is stable, after tremendous efforts exerted by the state.

He also referred to the sacrifices made by the Armed Forces, the police, and the civilians to fight terrorism and restore stability to the region.

During an inspection tour of North Sinai, Madbouly talked about the aftermath of terrorist attacks targeting government and security institutions. He said that traces of bullets were still present on the facades of buildings.

“The celebration that Sisi announced in North Sinai proves that we are greatly close to eliminating the security challenges in Rafah, Sheikh Zuweid and al-Arish,” said Amr Abdel Moneim, an Egyptian researcher specializing in Islamic movements.

“The fete will be the result of a plan that was implemented successfully according to the methodologies of security operations and military strategies,” Moneim told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Moneim pointed out that the tribes in Sinai had participated in purging the region from terrorism.

Many victims of the Egyptian police and army fell during the anti-terrorism operations in Sinai.

Speaking on Egyptian Police Day on Monday, Sisi reminded attendees that Egypt has paid a steep price in its fight against terrorism.

North Sinai Governor Mohamed Abdel-Fadil Shousha affirmed that Sisi had allotted sizable attention to clear Sinai from terrorism and launch development projects there.

The Egyptian government, for its part, confirmed adopting a “comprehensive vision” for the reconstruction of the Sinai Peninsula after the elimination of “hotbeds of terrorism.”

Investments amounting to more than LE700 billion were and are being implemented to develop the Sinai Peninsula over eight years, the Egyptian government revealed.



Hostages as Leverage: What Is Hamas' Gamble in Gaza?

Fighters from Hamas in Khan Younis on February 20. (Reuters)
Fighters from Hamas in Khan Younis on February 20. (Reuters)
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Hostages as Leverage: What Is Hamas' Gamble in Gaza?

Fighters from Hamas in Khan Younis on February 20. (Reuters)
Fighters from Hamas in Khan Younis on February 20. (Reuters)

Despite heavy setbacks since the start of Israel's war on Gaza in October 2023, Hamas continues to project defiance and resilience against the Jewish state.

In recent days, the group has pursued a political track despite a surprise Israeli strikes on Gaza early on Tuesday that killed hundreds of Palestinians, including several Hamas leaders and fighters.

The group held back from a military response until the third day of the renewed escalation, launching only three rockets toward Tel Aviv.

Analysts say both sides are using military pressure to gain leverage, particularly after Israel expanded its limited ground operations in key areas, including the Netzarim corridor, which separates northern Gaza from its central and southern regions.

Since the war began, Hamas has relied on its main bargaining chip—the Israeli hostages in its custody.

The group surprised Tel Aviv with the number of living captives, a fact revealed during the first phase of a ceasefire that began on January 19 and lasted 42 days before continuing unofficially.

Tensions escalated again after 58 days, culminating in a series of assassinations targeting senior Hamas figures.

Despite the Israeli attacks, Hamas continues to prioritize the political route, holding firm to its key bargaining chip—the Israeli hostages.

The group remains confident that the hostages represent its strongest leverage, especially as it monitors developments within Israeli society, particularly the pressure from families of the captives on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

This pressure is mounting for the government to pursue a prisoner swap, alongside Israel's clear intent to use military force to recover the hostages. Hamas sees this as a strategic opportunity.

Sources within Hamas told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group has numerous cards to play and believes these could ultimately force Israel to accept a permanent ceasefire. While the Israeli captives are a pivotal factor, they are not the only leverage Hamas holds.

The sources added that the group has military tactics at its disposal, which could be employed on the ground if negotiations fail and reach a deadlock.

Hamas aims to avoid appearing weak both to Israel and the Palestinian public, insisting on the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all parts of Gaza, including the Salah al-Din, or Philadelphi, corridor.

Sources within Hamas stress that the group has no option but to restore Gaza to its pre-October 7, 2023, status to secure breathing space. Once that is achieved, Hamas would be open to transferring power to the Palestinian Authority or to a government formed through national Palestinian consensus.

Hamas is betting on its ability to retain control over Gaza, despite Israeli strikes, allowing it to claim that it has thwarted efforts to topple its rule.

Over 15 months of military conflict, Israel has failed to completely dismantle Hamas's military and governance capabilities.

While the group was forced to operate in a limited capacity due to Israeli efforts to target its leaders at various levels, it regained strength in areas from which Israeli forces withdrew.

Furthermore, Hamas quickly regained momentum after the ceasefire, as evidenced by the resumption of its government ministries, political bodies, and the military wing: the al-Qassam Brigades. This was particularly evident during the handover of Israeli captives.

Hamas appears to rely on its continued support base in Gaza, despite heavy losses, and remains firm in refusing to compromise on certain demands.

Sources within Hamas told Asharq Al-Awsat that it is natural for the group to rely on its loyalist base in Gaza to continue resisting Israel.

This strategy is not new for Palestinian factions, which have faced significant setbacks over decades but have consistently emerged stronger and more resilient after each blow.

Hamas acknowledges that the situation in Gaza may have changed after the war, but likens it to Israel's Operation Defensive Shield in the West Bank in 2002.

While Israel succeeded in dismantling many Palestinian factions' cells at the time, those groups later re-emerged and became active again. This, the sources say, underscores the failure of Israel's military approach, which has never decisively won any battle.

Recently, Hamas has sought to demonstrate its strength in Gaza's streets. Dozens of its fighters took part in military displays, and members of its police and security forces were seen conducting arrests of suspects involved in both criminal and security-related activities.

The group also reactivated new and partially damaged facilities for its security forces.

During the first phase of the ceasefire, which lasted 42 days and extended for an additional 16 days due to efforts to prolong the agreement, Asharq Al-Awsat observed an increase in Gaza residents visiting police stations to file complaints, including some related to criminal cases.

Civilian staff from various ministries also carried out tasks, such as monitoring market prices.

After recent assassinations and the resumption of fighting by Israel, the future actions of Hamas remain uncertain, particularly if the current wave of violence continues.

Hamas leaders from various political, military, and governmental levels have once again gone into hiding, and the group has struggled to control rising market prices, which has significantly impacted ordinary Gazans.

Sources within Hamas told Asharq Al-Awsat that the assassinated leaders—such as Issam al-Daalis, Yasser Harb, and Mohamed al-Jamasi—were crucial in restructuring the group's organizational and governmental operations.

This suggests that Israel has dealt a significant blow to Hamas by targeting key leaders who were tasked with revitalizing the movement and regaining full control over Gaza once the war ends.

Many believe that Hamas's popularity has waned, even among some of its supporters, due to the devastating impact of the war on Palestinians and Israel's threats of further displacement. Additionally, there is increasing public criticism of Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack, with some questioning the disastrous consequences it has had for the Palestinian people.

Despite a decline in both its popularity and legitimacy, some view Hamas's potential willingness to cede power not as a sign of weakness but as an effort to avoid a larger, more prolonged conflict that could decimate the remaining leadership and active members of the group.

Hamas sources maintain that the group's leadership is united in its readiness to relinquish control, but only if there is a national consensus.

This decision, they insist, will not be made in response to Israeli or US pressure to remove the group from the Palestinian political landscape.

The group remains focused on preventing further conflict for Gaza's residents, emphasizing that their primary concern is not just their own survival but the well-being of the population, according to Hamas sources.

Some analysts believe that Hamas will remain a key player in Palestinian politics for many years to come, whether publicly or in the shadows—even if it steps down from governing Gaza after the current war.