Egypt’s Headline Inflation Surges to 25.8% In January amid Imports Delay

Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files
Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files
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Egypt’s Headline Inflation Surges to 25.8% In January amid Imports Delay

Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files
Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files

Egypt's annual urban consumer price inflation jumped to a higher-than-expected 25.8% in January, data from statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Thursday.

The rise from 21.3% in December followed a series of currency devaluations starting in March 2022, a prolonged shortage of foreign currency, and continuing delays in getting imports into the country. The Egyptian pound has fallen by nearly 50% since March.

January inflation was the highest since December 2017, a year after a steep devaluation.

Economists had expected a reading of 23.75%, according to the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 14.

Five analysts had forecast that core inflation would climb to 26.6% from 24.4% in December.

Core inflation jumped to 31.241% in January from 24.449% in December.

Headline inflation increased across the board, but was driven especially by higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which make up 32.7% of the index's basket, "as producers continued to pass through higher import bills to shoppers", said Allen Sandeep of Naeem Brokerage.

Month-on-month, prices rose by 4.7% compared to 2.1% in December, driven by a 10.1% monthly surge in food and beverage prices, Sandeep said.

The high January number increases pressure on the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates when it next meets on March 30.

At its last meeting on Feb. 2, the MPC kept its lending rate at 17.25% and the deposit rate at 16.25%, saying its hikes of 800 basis points over the last year should help to tame inflation.



Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher US bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.

The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.

The dollar index was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week, Reuters reported.

Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain's pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.

Data on Tuesday showed US job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed US services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high - a possible inflation warning.

Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.

"We're getting very strong US numbers... which has rates going up," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street, pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.

"There's even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly."

Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.

US private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of US rates.

Traders are jittery ahead of key US labor data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second US presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.

The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008.

Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.

"With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news - and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the US, and Treasuries are selling off - the correlation inverts," said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.

"That doesn't happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there's still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures."

Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain's new Labor government late last year.

Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.

Japan's consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank's view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.

China's yuan hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.