Egypt’s Headline Inflation Surges to 25.8% In January amid Imports Delay

Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files
Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files
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Egypt’s Headline Inflation Surges to 25.8% In January amid Imports Delay

Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files
Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files

Egypt's annual urban consumer price inflation jumped to a higher-than-expected 25.8% in January, data from statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Thursday.

The rise from 21.3% in December followed a series of currency devaluations starting in March 2022, a prolonged shortage of foreign currency, and continuing delays in getting imports into the country. The Egyptian pound has fallen by nearly 50% since March.

January inflation was the highest since December 2017, a year after a steep devaluation.

Economists had expected a reading of 23.75%, according to the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 14.

Five analysts had forecast that core inflation would climb to 26.6% from 24.4% in December.

Core inflation jumped to 31.241% in January from 24.449% in December.

Headline inflation increased across the board, but was driven especially by higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which make up 32.7% of the index's basket, "as producers continued to pass through higher import bills to shoppers", said Allen Sandeep of Naeem Brokerage.

Month-on-month, prices rose by 4.7% compared to 2.1% in December, driven by a 10.1% monthly surge in food and beverage prices, Sandeep said.

The high January number increases pressure on the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates when it next meets on March 30.

At its last meeting on Feb. 2, the MPC kept its lending rate at 17.25% and the deposit rate at 16.25%, saying its hikes of 800 basis points over the last year should help to tame inflation.



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.