Western, Regional Ambassadors Pressure Lebanon to Elect New President

A handout picture provided by the Lebanese parliament website shows Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (3rd-L) posing for a group photo with ambassadors and representatives of Egypt (L), France (2nd-L), the United States (3rd-R), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar at the parliament headquarters in the capital Beirut on February 13, 2023. (Lebanese parliament/AFP)
A handout picture provided by the Lebanese parliament website shows Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (3rd-L) posing for a group photo with ambassadors and representatives of Egypt (L), France (2nd-L), the United States (3rd-R), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar at the parliament headquarters in the capital Beirut on February 13, 2023. (Lebanese parliament/AFP)
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Western, Regional Ambassadors Pressure Lebanon to Elect New President

A handout picture provided by the Lebanese parliament website shows Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (3rd-L) posing for a group photo with ambassadors and representatives of Egypt (L), France (2nd-L), the United States (3rd-R), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar at the parliament headquarters in the capital Beirut on February 13, 2023. (Lebanese parliament/AFP)
A handout picture provided by the Lebanese parliament website shows Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (3rd-L) posing for a group photo with ambassadors and representatives of Egypt (L), France (2nd-L), the United States (3rd-R), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar at the parliament headquarters in the capital Beirut on February 13, 2023. (Lebanese parliament/AFP)

Western and regional powers have warned they will reconsider “all ties” with Lebanon if parliament fails to elect a president amid a worsening financial crisis, the prime minister's office said Monday.

Support for Lebanon will begin after the election of a new head of state and the implementation of reforms, said the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the United States and France.

They met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and parliament Speaker Nabih Berri a week after Paris hosted a meeting for representatives of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the US and France to address the Lebanese crisis.

The meeting ended with officials failing to reach an agreement and no official statement was released afterwards.

Monday’s delegation of western and regional officials included American Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea, French Ambassador Anne Grillo, Egyptian Ambassador Yasser Alawi, Qatari Ambassador Ibrahim Abdulaziz al-Sahlawi, and Counselor at the Saudi Embassy Fares al-Amoudi.

They stressed during their meetings that real support for Lebanon begins after the election of a president and after the reform process begins, said a statement from Mikati’s office.

They explained that failure to issue a statement after the Paris meeting was because the meetings remain open and ongoing to support Lebanon and encourage the election of a new president.

Berri’s office did not elaborate on the details of the meeting.

Informed sources, however, described the talks as “positive in that all sides agreed on the importance of speeding up efforts and reaching an agreement on electing a president.”

They told Asharq Al-Awsat that the officials did not discuss potential candidates, but they underscored the president’s agenda and the importance of the formation of a government that is capable of carrying out reforms.

Ultimately, the foreign envoys said it was up to the Lebanese officials themselves to assume their responsibilities in resolving the impasse as soon as possible.

They delivered a “strongly worded and unprecedented message” given the deadlock that has stretched on for over three months since President Michel Aoun’s term ended in October.

“Lebanon will not receive any aid before the elections are held,” they stated.

They were quoted as saying: “We are keen on Lebanon but we cannot replace the Lebanese people and the responsibility lies on the lawmakers.”

“If they don’t elect a president, then the situation will go from bad to worse,” they warned, according to the sources.

They implied that a “negative stance” may be taken against those obstructing the polls.

They added, however, that they don’t favor any candidate over another, saying that their meetings will remain open.

The sources revealed that Berri had clarified to the delegation that he had previously called for dialogue to discuss the impasse, but some sides have rejected the suggestion.

The electoral sessions that have so far been held at parliament have become a “farce,” he was quoted as saying.

The necessary circumstances must be met for the elections to be a success, he added.

“We have weeks, not months, because the country can no longer tolerate more strain,” Berri warned.

A new president, he continued, must bring together the Lebanese people, not divide them, and he must be open to the international community.

The international community has long urged Lebanese leaders to end months of political wrangling and stem the financial meltdown.

But decision-making in Lebanese politics can take months of horse-trading between foreign-backed sectarian leaders, with Aoun's election in 2016 coming after more than two years without a president.

In the absence of political action, the market value of the Lebanese pound hit a new record low Monday of more than 68,000 to the US dollar.

The divided lawmakers have made 11 unsuccessful attempts to name a new president and have not convened since January 19.

Two Lebanese MPs have been holding a sit-in in parliament for nearly a month in hopes of jolting fellow lawmakers into action.



Hamas to Conceal Identity of Sinwar’s Successor, Five Candidates Considered

Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
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Hamas to Conceal Identity of Sinwar’s Successor, Five Candidates Considered

Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)

Hamas is set to keep the identity of its new political bureau chief secret after Israel assassinated Yehya Sinwar, the group’s Gaza leader, on Wednesday.

This follows the killing of former political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran less than three months ago.

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hamas leaders are discussing the decision to hide the new leader’s name due to growing security risks.

“The leadership is likely to keep the identity confidential for safety reasons,” one source said.

The move is aimed at giving the new chief more freedom to operate and avoiding Israeli assassination attempts, which have targeted many of Hamas’ leaders.

The secrecy is also expected to help maintain internal order and protect the group’s structure.

Hamas wants to keep Israel uncertain about who will make decisions if talks resume on a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange in Gaza.

Since Friday, after officially announcing Sinwar’s death, Hamas leaders have been discussing who will replace him and whether to reveal their identity.

Sinwar was appointed about three months ago to send a defiant message to Israel and to show Hamas’ commitment to its “Al-Aqsa Flood” campaign.

His selection also aimed to reduce pressure on the group’s external leadership, which faces Israeli threats, political pressure from mediators, and calls for host countries to expel Hamas leaders.

Potential Successors:

Darwish, the ‘Shadow Man’

Several candidates are being considered to replace Sinwar, who faced no competition for Hamas’ political leadership after Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran on July 31.

The focus is now on Mohammad Darwish (Abu Omar Hassan), head of Hamas’ Shura Council. He was relatively unknown until gaining attention after Haniyeh’s death.

Many believe he has a strong chance, having appeared in recent official meetings ahead of some long-standing leaders.

A Hamas source said Darwish, once seen as the “shadow man,” is now taking on a more prominent role, receiving visitors and leading key activities.

Darwish spent much of his life abroad and was closely tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, from which Hamas originally emerged. Hamas later revised its charter and distanced itself from the Brotherhood.

Khalil al-Hayya: Sinwar’s Deputy

Alongside Darwish, Khalil al-Hayya is seen as a key contender, believed to be Sinwar’s deputy. Al-Hayya became a leading figure in Gaza after Sinwar’s disappearance and assassination.

A veteran political leader in Gaza, al-Hayya became Sinwar’s deputy and a close ally. He now leads Hamas in Gaza and is in charge of ceasefire negotiations and a potential prisoner exchange.

Al-Hayya has represented the group on key occasions, including speeches marking the October 7 attack and mourning Sinwar, calling him “the leader of the Al-Aqsa Flood battle.”

He promised that Hamas would continue its fight for full Palestinian liberation and a state with Jerusalem as its capital.

Al-Hayya also stated that Israeli prisoners held by Hamas would not be released unless Israel halts its offensive on Gaza, withdraws, and frees Palestinian prisoners.

Known as a political hardliner, al-Hayya, like Sinwar, supports strong ties with Iran.

Khaled Meshaal: Closer to the Muslim Brotherhood than Iran

In addition to al-Hayya and Darwish, Khaled Meshaal, Mousa Abu Marzouk, and Mohammad Nazzal are also possible candidates to lead Hamas.

Meshaal led Hamas’ political bureau for about 21 years and now heads the group’s external branch.

After Haniyeh’s assassination, Meshaal reportedly declined the leadership role due to health reasons and the current situation. It is unclear if he will now step in after Sinwar's death.

Meshaal is widely known politically and is seen as more connected to the Muslim Brotherhood than to Iran.

Mohammad Nazzal: A Hardliner in Hamas

Mohammad Nazzal’s influence was evident in the recent elections.

Born and raised in Amman, Jordan, Nazzal is originally from the West Bank and studied in Kuwait. He joined Hamas at its founding and has been a member of the political bureau since 1996. Nazzal is regarded as one of the hardliners within the group.

Mousa Abu Marzouk: First Head of the Political Bureau

Mousa Abu Marzouk is another candidate for leadership. He co-founded Hamas in 1987 and was its first head of the political bureau.

He currently serves as the deputy head of Hamas’ external branch. Born in 1951 in the Rafah refugee camp, his family was displaced from a village near Ramla.

It is expected that the next Hamas leader will be chosen from among these candidates rather than from Gaza, especially given the communication breakdown with some leaders in the territory.

Hamas has a system for selecting successors for vacant positions.

Hiding the Identity of Hamas' Leader

Hamas began concealing the identity of its leader in 2004 after Israel assassinated founder Ahmed Yassin on March 22, followed by his successor, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, on April 17.

For a long time, Hamas did not disclose the name of its leader in Palestine to avoid Israeli targeting.

Sinwar was killed on October 17, a major setback for Hamas that came just three months after former political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran.

Sinwar’s death has prompted Hamas to start extensive consultations to shape its future approach to the ongoing conflict and ceasefire negotiations.

This shift returned decision-making power to the external leadership after Gaza had been the focus.

Future decisions are likely to involve broader discussions, especially with the absence of influential historical leaders. While not indicating a collective leadership model like Hezbollah's in Lebanon, it suggests a move towards more inclusive consultation.

Since its founding in 1987, Hamas has had four leaders of the political bureau: Abu Marzouk (1992-1996), Meshaal (1996-2017), Haniyeh (2017 until his assassination), and Sinwar. A fifth leader is expected to be chosen soon.