Türkiye's Inflation Seen Falling to 55% In February

People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
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Türkiye's Inflation Seen Falling to 55% In February

People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul People shop at Eminonu district in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

Türkiye's annual inflation should slow to 55.5% in February even as prices continue to rise on a monthly basis driven by higher prices of food and services, while it is expected to end the year at 45%, according to a Reuters poll on Monday.

Inflation has been stoked by a currency crisis at the end of 2021 and it touched a 24-year peak of 85.51% in October. It fell sharply in December and eased only to 57.7% in January despite a favourable base effect due to new-year price hikes on food, goods and services.

The median estimate of 14 economists in a Reuters poll for annual inflation in February stood at 55.5%. Forecasts ranged between 54% and 56.8%.

On a monthly basis the median estimate was 3.4%, in a range of 2.3% to 4.2%, mainly due to higher food prices, price hikes in education, communication and the health sector, economists said.

Türkiye's southeast region was hit by massive earthquakes earlier this month which killed more than 44,000 people and left millions homeless in cold winter weather. Business groups and economists have said the earthquake could cost Türkiye up to $100 billion and shave one to two percentage points off growth this year.

Last week, Türkiye's central bank lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% to support growth in the wake of the earthquake and said the central bank will monitor its impact on the economy.

The median estimate for inflation at year-end stood at 45% in the Reuters poll, with forecasts coming in between 34% and 51.7%. The median in a poll conducted before the earthquake in January stood at 41% for end-2023.

Before the earthquake, inflation had been expected to keep falling to around 35-40% by June. However, it is now seen to be around 44% in May, according to the median forecast of six economists who gave estimates to the Reuters poll.

The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce February inflation data at 0700 GMT on March 3.



Ukraine Threatens to Halt Transit of Russian Oil to Europe

A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
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Ukraine Threatens to Halt Transit of Russian Oil to Europe

A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo

A top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday said Kyiv would halt the transit of Russian oil across its territory at the end of the year, when the current contract expires and is not renewed.

Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview with the Novini.Live broadcaster that current transit contracts for Russian supplies that run through the end of the year will not be renewed.

“There is no doubt that it will all end on January 1, 2025,” he said.

Kiev says it is prepared to transport gas from the Central Asian countries or Azerbaijan to Europe, but not from Russia, as it is crucial for Ukraine to deprive Russia of its sources of income from the sale of raw materials after it attacked its neighbor well over two years ago.

The contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe between the state-owned companies Gazprom and Naftogaz ends on December 31.

Despite the launch of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainians have fulfilled the contract terms - in part at the insistence of its European neighbors, especially Hungary.

But the leadership in Kiev has repeatedly made it clear that it wants the shipments to end.

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic energy security envoy Vaclav Bartuska said on Friday that any potential halt in oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine from Russia from next year would not be a problem for the country.

Responding to a Reuters question – on comments by Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak that flows of Russian oil may stop from January – Bartuska said Ukraine had also in the past warned of a potential halt.

“This is not the first time, this time maybe they mean it seriously – we shall see,” Bartuska said in a text message. “For the Czech Republic, it is not a problem.”

To end partial dependency on the Druzhba pipeline, Czech state-owned pipeline operator MERO has been investing in raising the capacity of the TAL pipeline from Italy to Germany, which connects to the IKL pipeline supplying the Czech Republic.

From next year, the increased capacity would be sufficient for the total needs of the country’s two refineries, owned by Poland’s Orlen, of up to 8 million tons of crude per year.

MERO has said it planned to achieve the country’s independence from Russian oil from the start of 2025, although the TAL upgrade would be finished by June 2025.

On Friday, oil prices stabilized, heading for a weekly increase, as disruptions in Libyan production and Iraq’s plans to curb output raised concerns about supply.

Meanwhile, data showing that the US economy grew faster than initially estimated eased recession fears.

However, signs of weakening demand, particularly in China, capped gains.

Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expire on Friday, fell by 7 cents, or 0.09%, to $79.87 per barrel. The more actively traded November contract rose 5 cents, or 0.06%, to $78.87.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures added 6 cents, or 0.08%, to $75.97 per barrel.

The day before, both benchmarks had risen by more than $1, and so far this week, they have gained 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Additionally, a drop in Libyan exports and the prospect of lower Iraqi crude production in September are expected to help keep the oil market undersupplied.

Over half of Libya’s oil production, around 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), was halted on Thursday, and exports were suspended at several ports due to a standoff between rival political factions.

Elsewhere, Iraq plans to reduce oil output in September as part of a plan to compensate for producing over the quota agreed with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

Iraq, which produced 4.25 million bpd in July, will cut output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million bpd next month, the source said.