Hundreds of Fearful Sub-Saharan Migrants Flee Tunisia

Sub-Saharan African migrants camp outside the headquarters of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Tunis, Tunisia on March 2, 2023. (AFP)
Sub-Saharan African migrants camp outside the headquarters of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Tunis, Tunisia on March 2, 2023. (AFP)
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Hundreds of Fearful Sub-Saharan Migrants Flee Tunisia

Sub-Saharan African migrants camp outside the headquarters of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Tunis, Tunisia on March 2, 2023. (AFP)
Sub-Saharan African migrants camp outside the headquarters of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Tunis, Tunisia on March 2, 2023. (AFP)

Around 300 nationals of Ivory Coast and Mali were to be flown home from Tunisia on Saturday, fearful of a wave of violence against sub-Saharan migrants since President Kais Saied delivered a controversial tirade against them last month.

In his February 21 speech, Saied ordered officials to take "urgent measures" to tackle irregular migration, claiming without evidence that "a criminal plot" was underway "to change Tunisia's demographic makeup".

Saied charged that migrants were behind most crime in the North African country, fueling a spate of sackings, evictions and physical attacks against the community, AFP said.

The African Union expressed "deep shock and concern at the form and substance" of Saied's remarks, while governments in sub-Saharan Africa scrambled to organize the repatriation of hundreds of fearful nationals who flocked to their embassies for help.

A first group of 50 Guineans were flown home on Wednesday, while Mali and Ivory Coast are to repatriate 300 of their citizens on special flights on Saturday.

"Air Cote d'Ivoire has a flight scheduled for 0700 (0600 GMT) on Saturday morning that will carry 145 passengers," Ivorian ambassador Ibrahim Sy Savane said.

In total, 1,100 Ivorians have applied to be repatriated from Tunisia, he added.

According to official figures, there are around 21,000 undocumented sub-Saharan migrants in Tunisia, a country of about 12 million inhabitants.

The Ivorian community numbers around 7,000 people.

Mali has also chartered a plane to repatriate around 150 people.

Junta leader Colonel Assimi Goita has given "very firm instructions" to assist nationals who are in distress, a Malian diplomat in Tunis told AFP.

Guineans among the first group to be repatriated on Wednesday said they had been subjected to manhunts in Tunisia.

Ibrahima Barry, 26, spoke of a "wave of hatred without reason".

"In Tunisia, if I tell you that they are savages, it is not too strong a word," he told AFP.

Many of the sub-Saharan African migrants in Tunisia lost their jobs and homes overnight.

Dozens were arrested after identity checks, and some are still being detained.

'Mob justice'
Since Saied gave his speech, rights groups have reported a spike in vigilante violence including stabbings of sub-Saharan Africans.

Jean Bedel Gnabli, deputy head of an association for sub-Saharan migrants, said the whole community was living in fear.

"They feel like they've been handed over to mob justice."

Migrants whose countries have embassies in Tunisia rushed to them seeking assistance.

The embassies of Ivory Coast and Mali provided emergency accommodation this week for dozens of their citizens who had been evicted from their homes, including young children.

Those with no diplomatic representation in Tunisia set up makeshift camps outside the Tunis offices of the International Organization for Migration.

Among those heading home are dozens of fee-paying or scholarship students who were enrolled in Tunisian universities and in the country legally.

AESAT, an association that supports them, sent out a message this week urging them "not to go out, even to go to class, until authorities ensure we are properly protected from these attacks". The warning has been extended until Monday.

AESAT reported last month that four Ivorian students had been assaulted when they left their dorms, while a student from Gabon was attacked in her home.

Many students from sub-Saharan Africa have already flown home at their own expense, a student representative said.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”