Credit Suisse Meets to Weigh Options, under Pressure to Merge with UBS

A logo is seen on the headquarters of Swiss bank Credit Suisse on Paradeplatz in Zurich, Switzerland March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
A logo is seen on the headquarters of Swiss bank Credit Suisse on Paradeplatz in Zurich, Switzerland March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
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Credit Suisse Meets to Weigh Options, under Pressure to Merge with UBS

A logo is seen on the headquarters of Swiss bank Credit Suisse on Paradeplatz in Zurich, Switzerland March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
A logo is seen on the headquarters of Swiss bank Credit Suisse on Paradeplatz in Zurich, Switzerland March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse

Credit Suisse Group AG began a make-or-break weekend after some rivals grew cautious in their dealings with the bank as regulators urged it to pursue a deal with Swiss rival UBS AG.

Credit Suisse Chief Financial Officer Dixit Joshi and his teams will hold meetings over the weekend to assess strategic scenarios for the bank, people with knowledge of the matter said on Friday.

The 167-year-old bank is the biggest name ensnared in market turmoil unleashed by the collapse of US lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank over the past week, forcing the Swiss bank to tap $54 billion in central bank funding, Reuters said.

Swiss regulators are encouraging UBS and Credit Suisse to merge but neither bank wanted to do so, one source said. The regulators do not have the power to force the merger, the person said.

The boards of UBS and Credit Suisse were expected to separately meet over the weekend, the Financial Times said, Credit Suisse shares jumped 9% in after-market trading following the FT report. Credit Suisse and UBS declined to comment.

In the latest sign of its mounting troubles, at least four major banks, including Societe Generale SA and Deutsche Bank AG, have put restrictions on their trades involving Credit Suisse or its securities, five people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

"The Swiss central bank stepping in was a necessary step to calm the flames, but it might not be sufficient to restore confidence in Credit Suisse, so there’s talk about more measures," said Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy at RBC Wealth Management.

Efforts to shore up Credit Suisse come as policymakers including the European Central Bank and US President Joe Biden sought to reassure investors and depositors the global banking system is safe. But fears of broader troubles in the sector persist.

Already this week, big US banks provided a $30 billion lifeline for smaller lender First Republic, while US banks altogether sought a record $153 billion in emergency liquidity from the Federal Reserve in recent days.

This reflected "funding and liquidity strains on banks, driven by weakening depositor confidence," said ratings agency Moody's, which this week downgraded its outlook on the US banking system to negative.

In Washington, focus turned to greater oversight to ensure that banks - and their executives - are held accountable.

Biden called on Congress to give regulators greater power over the banking sector, including imposing higher fines, clawing back funds and barring officials from failed banks.

Some Democratic lawmakers asked regulators and the Justice Department to probe the role of Goldman Sachs in SVB's collapse, said the office of Representative Adam Schiff.

MARKET TROUBLES LINGER
Banking stocks globally have been battered since Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, raising questions about other weaknesses in the financial system.

US regional bank shares fell sharply on Friday and the S&P Banks index tumbled 4.6%, bringing its decline over the past two weeks to 21.5%, its worst two-week calendar loss since the COVID-19 pandemic shook markets in March 2020.

First Republic Bank ended Friday down 32.8%, bringing its loss over the last 10 sessions to more than 80%. Moody's downgraded the bank's debt rating after the market close.

While support from some of the biggest names in US banking prevented First Republic's collapse this week, investors were startled by disclosures on its cash position and how much emergency liquidity it needed.

SVB Financial Group filed for bankruptcy court-supervised reorganization, days after regulators took over its Silicon Valley Bank unit.

Regulators had asked banks interested in buying SVB and Signature Bank to submit bids by Friday, people familiar with the matter said.

Regulators are considering retaining ownership of securities owned by Signature and SVB to allow smaller banks to participate in auctions for the collapsed lenders, a source familiar with the matter said.



IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts for Most Countries in Wake of Century-High US Tariffs

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks on the "World Economic Outlook" during the IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 22, 2025. (AFP)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks on the "World Economic Outlook" during the IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 22, 2025. (AFP)
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IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts for Most Countries in Wake of Century-High US Tariffs

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks on the "World Economic Outlook" during the IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 22, 2025. (AFP)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks on the "World Economic Outlook" during the IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 22, 2025. (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of US tariffs now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth.

The IMF released an update to its World Economic Outlook compiled in just 10 days after US President Donald Trump announced universal tariffs on nearly all trading partners and higher rates - currently suspended - on many countries.

It cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage point to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage point to 3% from its January forecast that growth would reach 3.3% in both years.

It said inflation was expected to decline more slowly than expected in January, given the impact of tariffs, reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with "notable" upward revisions for the US and other advanced economies.

The IMF called the report a "reference forecast" based on developments through April 4, citing the extreme complexity and fluidity of the current moment.

"We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset," IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters.

The IMF said the swift escalation of trade tensions and "extremely high levels" of uncertainty about future policies would have a significant impact on global economic activity.

"It's quite significant and it's hitting all the regions of the world. We're seeing lower growth in the US, lower growth in the euro area, lower growth in China, lower growth in other parts of the world," Gourinchas told Reuters in an interview.

"If we get an escalation of trade tensions between the US and other countries, that will fuel additional uncertainty, that will create additional financial market volatility, that will tighten financial conditions," he said, adding the bundled effect would further lower global growth prospects.

Weaker growth prospects had already lowered demand for the dollar, but the adjustment in currency markets and portfolio rebalancing seen to date had been orderly, he said.

"We are not seeing a stampede or a run to the exits," Gourinchas said. "We're not concerned at this stage about the resilience of the international monetary system. It would take something much bigger than this."

However, medium-term growth prospects remained mediocre, with the five-year forecast stuck at 3.2%, below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000-2019, with no relief in sight absent significant structural reforms.

The IMF slashed its forecast for growth in global trade by 1.5 percentage point to 1.7%, half the growth seen in 2024, reflecting the accelerating fragmentation of the global economy.

Sharply increased tariffs between the United States and China will result in much lower bilateral trade between the world's two largest economies, Gourinchas said, adding, "That is weighing down on global trade growth."

Trade would continue, but it would cost more and it would be less efficient, he said, citing confusion and uncertainty about where to invest and where to source products and components. "Restoring predictability, clarity to the trading system in whatever form is absolutely critical," he told Reuters.

US GROWTH DOWN, INFLATION UP

The IMF downgraded its forecast for US growth by 0.9 percentage point to 1.8% in 2025 - a full percentage point down from 2.8% growth in 2024 - and by 0.4 percentage point to 1.7% in 2026, citing policy uncertainty and trade tensions.

Gourinchas told reporters the IMF did not foresee a recession in the US, but the odds of a downturn had increased from about 25% to 37%. He said the IMF was now projecting US headline inflation to reach 3% in 2025, one percentage point higher than it forecast in January, due to tariffs and underlying strength in services.

That meant the Federal Reserve will have to be very vigilant in keeping inflation expectations anchored, Gourinchas said, noting that many Americans were still scarred by a spike in inflation during the COVID pandemic.

Asked about the impact of any moves by the White House to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Gourinchas said it was "absolutely critical" that central banks were able to remain independent to maintain their credibility in addressing inflation.

US stocks suffered steep losses on Monday as the US president ramped up his attacks on Powell, fueling concerns about the central bank's independence. Stocks opened higher on Tuesday.

US neighbors Canada and Mexico, both targeted by a range of Trump's tariffs, also saw their growth forecasts cut. The IMF forecast Canada's economy would grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, instead of 2% growth projected for both years in January.

It predicted Mexico would be hard hit by tariffs, with its growth dipping to a negative 0.3% in 2025, a sharp 1.7 percentage point drop from the January forecast, before recovering to 1.4% growth in 2026.

LOWER GROWTH IN EUROPE, ASIA

The IMF forecast growth in the Euro Area would slow to 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with both forecasts about 0.2 percentage points down from January. It said Spain was an outlier, with a 2.5% growth forecast for 2025, a 0.2 percentage point upward revision, reflecting strong data.

Offsetting forces included stronger consumption due to rising wages and a projected fiscal easing in Germany after major changes to its "debt brake." The IMF cut its growth forecast for Germany by 0.3 percentage point to 0.0% in 2025, and by 0.2 percentage point to 0.9% in 2026.

Growth in Britain would hit 1.1% in 2025, 0.5 percentage point below the January forecast, edging higher to 1.4% in 2026, reflecting the impact of recent tariff announcements, higher gilt yields and weaker private consumption.

Trade tensions and tariffs were expected to shave 0.5 percentage point off Japan's economic activity in 2025, compared to the January forecast, with growth projected at 0.6%.

China's growth forecast was cut to 4% for 2025 and 2026, reflecting respective downward revisions of 0.6 percentage point and 0.5 percentage point from the January forecast.

Gourinchas said the impact of the tariffs on China - hugely dependent on exports - was about 1.3 percentage point in 2025, but that was offset by stronger fiscal measures.