Regional Settlement Encourages Iraq PM to Rein in Factions

This handout photo taken and released by the Turkish presidential press service shows Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani giving a joint press conference with the Turkish president after their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Ankara on March 21, 2023. (Handout/ Turkish Presidential Press Service / AFP)
This handout photo taken and released by the Turkish presidential press service shows Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani giving a joint press conference with the Turkish president after their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Ankara on March 21, 2023. (Handout/ Turkish Presidential Press Service / AFP)
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Regional Settlement Encourages Iraq PM to Rein in Factions

This handout photo taken and released by the Turkish presidential press service shows Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani giving a joint press conference with the Turkish president after their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Ankara on March 21, 2023. (Handout/ Turkish Presidential Press Service / AFP)
This handout photo taken and released by the Turkish presidential press service shows Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani giving a joint press conference with the Turkish president after their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Ankara on March 21, 2023. (Handout/ Turkish Presidential Press Service / AFP)

The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations is expected to have an impact on Iraq and its various factions.

Political circles are waiting to see what that impact will be, while head of the Sadrist movement, cleric Moqtada al-Sadr awaits the right opportunity to declare that he is coming out of political retirement.

Iraqi sources said the settlement is encouraging Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to “tighten his relations with armed Shiite factions”.

Meanwhile, decision-makers in Baghdad, most notably the pro-Iran Coordination Framework, are adjusting with and seeking to benefit from the calm that has prevailed after the Saudi-Iran deal was announced earlier this month.

Sudani has received “regional encouragement” to contain the factions. This will probably lead to a change in balances of power among Shiite forces in Iraq, possibly even lead to new alliances in the next parliamentary elections, predicted the sources.

It remains to be seen whether Sadr has the cards that would allow him to rein in his rival, the Coordination Framework, which has become a force to reckon with in Iraqi politics.

Sources close to Sadr believe that the regional settlement will not have a long-term impact in Iraq. “The cleric is focusing his attention on reading the internal scene and waiting for his moment to act to create a new political factor in the coming phase,” they explained.

Amid the speculation, the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria to Iraq met in Baghdad last week.

A trusted told Asharq Al-Awsat that media close to Tehran received “instructions to cease attacking Gulf countries and figures.”

It added that the instructions also called for avoiding escalation and fueling tensions over regional issues, such as the situation in Yemen.

Also last week, the Baghdad and Erbil governments reached an agreement over the payment of salaries of Kurdistan Region employees. Informed sources said the agreement was part of a deal “approved by the Coordination Formation and a positive consequence of the settlement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.”

Framework MPs said the agreement would pave the way for a political alliance at the expense of the Sadrist movement.

Other sources revealed that Erbil received “guarantees from regional powers to resolve its situation in Iraq and the region and to seize the opportunities created in wake of the deal between Riyadh and Tehran.”

A Shiite political source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Framework is prepared to “consolidate new rules for political life in Iraq and that the leaders of its parties believe the situation is very ripe to carry out what is necessary.”

However, he believed that Sadr “will not allow the Framework free reign away from his influence,” predicting that the cleric may soon return to political life.

Sadr had recently ordered prominent members of his movement against traveling abroad during the holy fasting month of Ramadan because they needed to be present at “very important meetings.”



Lebanon Says It Will Retaliate for Gunfire from Syria after Deadly Cross-Border Fighting

Lebanese army soldiers. Reuters file photo
Lebanese army soldiers. Reuters file photo
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Lebanon Says It Will Retaliate for Gunfire from Syria after Deadly Cross-Border Fighting

Lebanese army soldiers. Reuters file photo
Lebanese army soldiers. Reuters file photo

Lebanon's president on Monday ordered troops to retaliate for gunfire from the Syrian side of the border after more deadly fighting erupted overnight along the tense frontier.

The fighting occurred after Syria's interim government accused militants from Lebanon's Hezbollah group of crossing into Syria on Saturday, abducting three soldiers and killing them on Lebanese soil.

It was the most serious cross-border fighting since the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December.

Syrian News Channel, citing an unnamed Defense Ministry official, said the Syrian army shelled "Hezbollah gatherings that killed Syrian soldiers" along the border. Hezbollah denied involvement in a statement on Sunday.

Information Minister Paul Morkos said Lebanon's defense minister told a Cabinet meeting that the three killed were smugglers. He added that one child was killed and six people were wounded on the Lebanese side.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, said five Syrian soldiers were killed during Monday’s clashes. Footage circulated online and in local media showed families toward the Lebanese town of Hermel.

Lebanon's state news agency reported that fighting intensified Monday evening near Hermel.

"What is happening along the eastern and northeastern border cannot continue and we will not accept that it continues," Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun said on X. "I have given my orders to the Lebanese army to retaliate against the source of fire."

Aoun added that he asked Lebanon's foreign minister, who is currently in Brussels for a donors conference on Syria, to contact Syrian officials to resolve the problem "and prevent further escalation."

Violence recently spiked in the area between the Syrian military and armed Lebanese Shiite clans closely allied with the former government of Assad, based in Lebanon's Al-Qasr border village.

Lebanese media and the observatory say clans were involved in the abductions that sparked the latest clashes.

The Lebanese and Syrian armies said they have opened channels of communication to ease tensions. Lebanon's military also said it returned the bodies of the three killed Syrians. Large numbers of Lebanese troops have been deployed in the area.

Lebanese media reported low-level fighting at dawn after an attack on a Syrian military vehicle. The number of casualties was unclear.

Early Monday, four Syrian journalists embedded with the Syrian army were lightly wounded after an artillery shell fired from the Lebanese side of the border hit their position. They accused Hezbollah of the attack.

Meanwhile, senior Hezbollah legislator Hussein Haj Hassan in an interview with Lebanon’s Al Jadeed television accused fighters from the Syrian side of crossing into Lebanese territory and attacking border villages. His constituency is the northeastern Baalbek-Hermel province, which has borne the brunt of the clashes.

Lebanon has been seeking international support to boost funding for its military as it gradually deploys troops along its porous northern and eastern borders with Syria as well as its southern border with Israel.