Taiwan Rejects China Pressure Ahead of House Speaker Meeting

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen delivers a speech as she attends a banquet hosted by Belizean Prime Minister John Briceno, in Belize, in this handout picture released on April 4, 2023. (Taiwan Presidential Office/Handout via Reuters)
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen delivers a speech as she attends a banquet hosted by Belizean Prime Minister John Briceno, in Belize, in this handout picture released on April 4, 2023. (Taiwan Presidential Office/Handout via Reuters)
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Taiwan Rejects China Pressure Ahead of House Speaker Meeting

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen delivers a speech as she attends a banquet hosted by Belizean Prime Minister John Briceno, in Belize, in this handout picture released on April 4, 2023. (Taiwan Presidential Office/Handout via Reuters)
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen delivers a speech as she attends a banquet hosted by Belizean Prime Minister John Briceno, in Belize, in this handout picture released on April 4, 2023. (Taiwan Presidential Office/Handout via Reuters)

Taiwan pushed back against threats of retaliation by China, ahead of an expected meeting between President Tsai-Ing-wen and the US House speaker Wednesday that will underscore her government's claim to sovereignty.

Tsai has been visiting the island's remaining diplomatic allies in Latin America, Belize and Guatemala. The most politically sensitive part of her trip will be a meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles while she transits on her way back home.

China views Taiwan as its own territory and treats any dealings between US and Taiwanese officials as a challenge to its sovereignty. Tsai's tour is a bid to demonstrate that her government has international support.

Belize and Guatemala are two of just 13 countries that formally recognize Taiwan, a number that has dipped as China has put pressure on and funneled money into isolating the island. Tsai's Latin American trip comes just a week after Honduras announced it was cutting ties with Taiwan in favor of China, potentially prompted by a $300 million hydroelectric dam project in central Honduras built by a Chinese company.

Last week, and again on Monday, China threatened with countermeasures if Tsai met with McCarthy. The Chinese Consulate in Los Angeles issued a statement Monday saying it opposed any “any form of contact” between Taiwan authorities and the US.

“The reality and current situation that both sides of the (Taiwan) Strait belong to one China is very clear,” the statement said.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said at a daily news briefing Tuesday that China “will closely follow the developments and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it has never been part of China, and that China's recent criticism has become increasingly “absurd.”

“Taiwan, the Republic of China, is a sovereign country, and has the right to make its own determination in developing relations with other countries in the world,” it said in a statement. “It does not accept interference or suppression by any country for any reason, and will not limit itself because of intimidation or interference.”

The United States’ longstanding “one-China” policy acknowledges that the Chinese claim Taiwan as their territory. However, the US does not endorse that claim and remains Taiwan’s most important provider of military hardware and other defense assistance.

China has repeatedly asserted its claim to Taiwan, though Taiwan maintains its own democratic system of government since the sides split after a civil war in 1949.

Keeping up the military pressure, China's People’s Liberation Army sent 20 warplanes toward Taiwan Monday to Tuesday as well as three warships in the latest round of exercises, which have increased significantly in recent years.

China regularly sends warplanes around the island and has at times seemingly used the exercises as a demonstration of its ire.

Last December, China sent 71 planes and seven ships toward Taiwan in a 24-hour display of force after it expressed anger at Taiwan-related provisions in a US annual defense spending bill.

And last year, China responded to a visit by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan with the largest live-fire drills in decades that included firing a missile over the island, which had landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone.

The PLA’s increased military activity near Taiwan has raised concerns among regional governments, and also drawn greater international attention and rhetorical support for Taiwan’s defense. US legislators have also started visiting Taiwan at a greater frequency, as anti-China sentiment and concerns over China's strategic position grows in Congress.



Report: China Could Launch Military Drills Near Taiwan over President’s Pacific Visit

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)
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Report: China Could Launch Military Drills Near Taiwan over President’s Pacific Visit

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te waves to the crowd on national day to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan's formal name, in Taipei, Taiwan October 10, 2024. (Reuters)

China is likely to launch military drills in the coming days near Taiwan, using President Lai Ching-te's upcoming trip to the Pacific and scheduled US transit as a pretext, according to assessments by Taiwan and regional security officials.

Lai will start a visit to Taipei's three diplomatic allies in the Pacific on Saturday, and sources told Reuters he was planning stops in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam in a sensitive trip coming shortly after the US election.

China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and the most important issue in its relations with Washington, has a strong dislike of Lai whom Beijing calls a "separatist".

Lai's office has yet to confirm details of what are officially stop-overs in the United States, but is expected to do so shortly before he departs, sources familiar with the trip have previously said.

Beijing could conduct military maneuvers around or shortly after Lai's trip which ends on Dec. 6, said four officials in the region briefed on the matter, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

China's defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment, though the government has urged the United States not to permit Lai to transit.

Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, said on Wednesday that Lai's transit stops were "essentially provocative acts that violate the one-China principle".

Taiwan's defense ministry and the White House did not respond to a request for comment.

China has already staged two rounds of major exercises around Taiwan this year to pressure Taipei, one in May and one in October, dubbed "Joint Sword - 2024A" and B, respectively.

China could "repackage" ongoing regular military activities in the South China Sea or the East China Sea, moving them closer to Taiwan and rebranding them "Joint Sword - 2024C," according to a Taiwan security official.

Beijing could expand the size of its regular "joint combat readiness patrol" that typically involves naval and air force drills near Taiwan during Lai's visit and launch a "targeted" exercise towards the end of the trip, the source said.

Between 20 and 30 Chinese naval vessels are involved in the ongoing military maneuvers this week in the South China Sea, the source added.

'RED LINE'

Beijing wants to show the incoming US administration of President-elect Donald Trump that the first island chain is "China's sphere of influence" and Lai's trip could become a "pretext", the official said, referring to an area that runs from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines and on to Borneo, enclosing China's coastal seas.

"Beijing hopes to draw a red line and establish its power" during the US government transition and extend its sphere of influence, the official said, adding the military drills were meant for the United States and its allies.

A second source, a Taiwan-based regional security official, said the drills would probably be more limited in scope than the two earlier rounds this year given unstable winter weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.

A third source, familiar with security assessments around Taiwan, said China could use exercises in the coming weeks to test the bottom line of the Trump administration.

Two of the sources said more favorable weather conditions may prompt an earlier or delayed display of force in the days around Lai's trip.

Taiwan presidents typically take advantage of stop-overs in the United States going to and from far-flung allies to give speeches and meet with friendly politicians. Lai will be visiting the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, three of the 12 remaining countries maintaining official diplomatic ties with Taipei.

It would not be unprecedented for China to respond militarily to this trip. It did so in August of last year when then-Vice President Lai returned from the United States, and in April of last year upon then-President Tsai Ing-wen's return from California.

Lai and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party reject Beijing's sovereignty claims, saying only Taiwan's people can decide their future.