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Lebanon Confronted with Test of Choices, as Riyadh Judges Projects, Not Names

Lebanese army soldiers stand guard as retired members of the Lebanese security burn tires during a protest outside Lebanon's central bank in Beirut, Lebanon, 30 March 2023. (EPA)
Lebanese army soldiers stand guard as retired members of the Lebanese security burn tires during a protest outside Lebanon's central bank in Beirut, Lebanon, 30 March 2023. (EPA)
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Lebanon Confronted with Test of Choices, as Riyadh Judges Projects, Not Names

Lebanese army soldiers stand guard as retired members of the Lebanese security burn tires during a protest outside Lebanon's central bank in Beirut, Lebanon, 30 March 2023. (EPA)
Lebanese army soldiers stand guard as retired members of the Lebanese security burn tires during a protest outside Lebanon's central bank in Beirut, Lebanon, 30 March 2023. (EPA)

A senior Arab diplomat provided a rational assessment of the situation in Lebanon. He made the assessment away from the local media, effective and ineffective Lebanese politicians and their expectations from the recent agreement that restored diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Lebanese officials often speak of “conspiracies” when it comes to expectations from foreign powers and the extent to which they can impact local Lebanese affairs. They tend to overlook the strategic aspects of Riyadh’s policies in the Arab region.

Riyadh, without a shadow of a doubt, believes that any agreement cannot be built on the ruins of the interests of another Arab country, no matter the desired results that are expected of it. Saudi Arabia boasts a foreign policy legacy and firm course of action that will not be impacted by “narrow or wide” interests.

The influential diplomat dismissed media reports of a French initiative that would see the election of a Lebanese president from the March 8 camp and appointment of a prime minister from the current opposition.

The diplomat believes that the election of a president is only the tip of the iceberg of the several problems Lebanon has been grappling with for years and that are now threatening its political composition that on the surface is based on “consensual democracy”, while in reality is based on sectarian balances.

Lebanon has long suffered from flaws in its internal and external balances that has led it to the situation where its economic resources are constantly being depleted. The situation has also alienated its natural friends, whom it could traditionally rely on to help out of its crises and make up for its financial imbalances.

Visitors of the senior diplomat often leave meetings with him with a clear conviction that Saudi Arabia will not interfere in any deal over the positions of president and prime minister. They also realize that it has not named preferred candidates for any vacancy in Lebanon.

Rather, the Kingdom will deal with any understanding based on what it believes are Lebanon’s interests and relations with its Arab surroundings. If it believes it has set off on the right path, then it will not hesitate to support and help the Lebanese people out of their crisis.

However, if some officials continue to make the same old choices, while expecting new results, then Riyadh will simply sit back, and watch developments unfold.

Many believe that a deal over the president and prime minister will not be any different than what happened after the Doha agreement that ended up with the ouster of former PM Saad Hariri from his post while he was meeting with then US President Barack Obama in Washington. They also believe that it will not be any different than what happened after the deal that saw the election of Michel Aoun as president.

While some officials are focusing their attention on presidential candidates, others prefer to focus on Lebanon’s future and role. If an agreement is reached over its future and role, then the name of a president will be a small detail in the greater picture.

Observers of Riyadh’s moves in Beirut are realizing that it is drawing up the clear broad strokes of its policy that is based on the actual interests of the Lebanese people. There can be no regional or international deal that would compromise these interests. The illness ailing Lebanon has become clear and the treatment is obvious. Riyadh had been clear in saying it would not cover for any Lebanese government that was formed by a regional agenda that goes against national and Arab interests.

Lebanon needs an economic salvation plan that would take it out of the downward spiral of financial and economic collapse. The diplomat said such a plan cannot be implemented without the cooperation of all Lebanese parties and their adoption of a real national diagnosis of the illness and its treatment.

Such a treatment should not stem from narrow factional interests. The country should not be allowed to be dragged towards axes that are alien to its natural geographic and cultural positions. The Lebanese, therefore, cannot search for “imported” solutions that are dictated from abroad.

Moreover, the diplomat believes that the Lebanese opposition is squandering a historic opportunity to create change. He is shocked at its inability to reach common understandings that would allow it to introduce the desired change. The opposition would have the ability to impose conditions if it could come up with a united vision. The other camp would have been merciless if the roles were reversed, the way the opposition is being too lenient with it right now.

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Sudan Arms Surge Raises Alarms Over Civilian Protection

Sudan says it destroyed 50,000 explosive remnants of war (AFP)
Sudan says it destroyed 50,000 explosive remnants of war (AFP)
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Sudan Arms Surge Raises Alarms Over Civilian Protection

Sudan says it destroyed 50,000 explosive remnants of war (AFP)
Sudan says it destroyed 50,000 explosive remnants of war (AFP)

A surge in deadly violence has gripped the quiet northern town of al-Dabbah, exposing the growing threat posed by the rampant spread of weapons across Sudan in the absence of effective state control.

At least eight people were killed over just two days, four in tribal clashes and four others in a street fight within the town.

The latest bloodshed comes amid a broader climate of insecurity, where gunfire has become a common soundscape. In nearby Omdurman, social media users circulated graphic footage of a young man shot dead in cold blood after resisting an attempt to steal his mobile phone.

Reports of killings and injuries from arguments and brawls settled with bullets have flooded social platforms, painting a grim picture of lawlessness. Armed robbery gangs are said to roam freely, terrorizing civilians with no security forces in sight.

As Sudan’s brutal conflict enters its third year, guns have become as commonplace in towns and villages as household items. What was once settled with fists or sticks is now resolved through the barrel of a gun.

Tens of thousands of civilians have reportedly armed themselves, citing the need for self-defense amid state collapse and the disintegration of law enforcement.

Even before the war erupted, estimates suggested around 2.2 million firearms were circulating in Sudan’s conflict zones. Since then, the figure is believed to have ballooned, with unofficial estimates placing the current number at nearly six million, most acquired privately or informally.

In al-Dabbah, local authorities confirmed tribal clashes erupted between members of the Kababish and Hawaweer tribes, leaving four dead and others wounded before security forces intervened. The following day, a quarrel between vehicle drivers escalated into a gunfight, claiming four more lives.

Meanwhile, in the Omdurman district of Al-Hattana, gunmen fatally shot a man while attempting to snatch his phone, another grim scene that social media brought into public view.

Weapons have now flooded Sudan’s markets. Eyewitnesses and former security officials say that under the brief control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum, firearms were openly sold on the street like vegetables, with prices starting at just 20,000 Sudanese pounds, roughly $10.

Security experts say this gun chaos is not a sudden phenomenon but the product of years of unchecked proliferation.

Under former President Omar al-Bashir, weapons were distributed to tribal militias to fight opposing groups. With the eruption of nationwide conflict, arms have spread from the traditional battlegrounds of Darfur and Kordofan to cities in Sudan’s north, east, and center.

Legal analyst Moaz Hadra warned of the growing dangers of “random arming,” saying some groups are being trained and armed outside Sudan to destabilize the country. “Why are these groups being trained abroad instead of within Sudan’s military institutions?” he asked when speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat.

Officials Downplay Risk, Citing Self-Defense

Despite mounting violence, Sudanese security and military officials continue to downplay the threat. They argue that most weapons are held by civilians for self-protection against RSF attacks or roaming bandits. “Should a citizen wait helplessly while armed men storm his home?” one commentator asked rhetorically.

Brigadier General Fath al-Rahman al-Toum, a police spokesman, dismissed fears of total lawlessness, saying that gun crackdowns are ongoing and that firearms possession is being treated as an exceptional situation under extraordinary circumstances.

Others, like Brigadier General Saleh Abdullah, insist that once the war ends, collecting the weapons will be “very easy,” noting that most guns were distributed under strict regulations to reserve forces and can be retrieved using serial numbers registered to each piece. “The army has always managed its weapons according to clear protocols,” he said.

Major General Mujahid Ibrahim added that Sudan’s porous borders, particularly in the west, have made it easier for arms to enter the country unchecked, exacerbating the crisis. Still, military officials say weapons loaned to civilians can be recovered thanks to detailed logs and unique identifiers.

Yet, as al-Dabbah and Omdurman reel from fresh bouts of violence, the gap between official reassurance and on-the-ground chaos continues to widen. With Sudan’s civil war showing no sign of abating, the unchecked spread of guns threatens to tear apart what remains of the country’s fragile social fabric.