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Iraq: Speculations Point to Clash between Al-Halbousi, Shiite Allies

A general view of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad, Iraq, January 9, 2022. (Reuters)
A general view of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad, Iraq, January 9, 2022. (Reuters)
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Iraq: Speculations Point to Clash between Al-Halbousi, Shiite Allies

A general view of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad, Iraq, January 9, 2022. (Reuters)
A general view of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad, Iraq, January 9, 2022. (Reuters)

Iraqi political circles are suggesting that Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad al-Halbousi, is seeking to promote himself as the sole leader among the Sunni forces and parties disputing over influence and power.

They noted that al-Halbousi was fighting his opponents within the Sunni ranks on the one hand, and facing his allies in the Shiite Coordination Framework, on the other.

Observers pointed to the risks of his fight on the Sunni front, especially with the presence of figures who have great influence within the Sunni community. Those include the former Minister of Finance, Rafi al-Issawi, who has returned to Baghdad recently, former Speaker of the Mosul Parliament, Osama al-Nujaifi, and the head of the Azm Alliance, MP Muthanna Al-Samarrai.

However, al-Halbousi’s greatest challenge, according to the same observers, lies in his expected battle against the forces of the Coordination Framework, with whom he forged the State Administration Coalition that brought about the current government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

A statement issued by the speaker’s office a few days ago, in which he denied “the existence of differences with the prime minister”, has in fact raised suspicions over a clash between al-Halbousi and his Shiite allies.

Moreover, reports about a dispute between the speaker and the prime minister are not baseless. Circles close to al-Halbousi say that al-Sudani has transferred large sums of money from the Reconstruction Fund for areas affected by terrorist operations - which are dedicated to provinces of western and northern Iraq occupied by ISIS in 2014 - in favor of other provinces in the south and center of the country.

Meanwhile, sources close to the Shiite Framework forces, pointed to some disappointment with the terms of the alliance that brought them together with al-Halbousi and his Sovereignty alliance, following the formation of the Sudanese government at the end of October 2022.

The sources said that some of the political forces within the Framework, especially those that have armed factions spread in the Anbar governorate, “are exerting pressure to dismiss al-Halbousi or force him to negotiate a new agreement.”

Thus, the “honeymoon” that lasted for about six months between the speaker and the Shiite Framework forces is eroding in the eyes of most local observers, with speculations that he could be dismissed from Parliament if the differences between the two sides continued.

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Lebanese President Sponsors Dialogue with Hezbollah on its Weapons, State Monopoly over Arms 

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and parliament Speaker Nabih Berri meet at the Baabda presidential palace on Monday. (Lebanese Presidency)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and parliament Speaker Nabih Berri meet at the Baabda presidential palace on Monday. (Lebanese Presidency)
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Lebanese President Sponsors Dialogue with Hezbollah on its Weapons, State Monopoly over Arms 

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and parliament Speaker Nabih Berri meet at the Baabda presidential palace on Monday. (Lebanese Presidency)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and parliament Speaker Nabih Berri meet at the Baabda presidential palace on Monday. (Lebanese Presidency)

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and parliament Speaker Nabih Berri held a meeting at the Baabda presidential palace on Monday to pave the way for dialogue with Hezbollah leaders on the Iran-backed party’s possession of arms and need for the state to have monopoly over arms in the country.

Official sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that dialogue with Hezbollah aims to test the waters and the extent to which it is prepared to reach an agreement on its arsenal. Berri, Hezbollah’s sole remaining ally in Lebanon, supports intervening on behalf of the party – if necessary – to bridge any divides in the dialogue.

Any agreement will be followed with the drafting of a national security strategy for Lebanon, including a defense strategy, added the sources.

The sources said direct dialogue between Aoun and Hezbollah over the state monopoly over arms remains the better option than referring the issue to a dialogue table with other political parties seeing as agreements reached during past rounds of talks over the years were never implemented.

Deputy US special envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus, who was in Lebanon last week, expressed to Aoun her understanding of his desire to hold direct dialogue with Hezbollah.

However, she stressed that time is not in Lebanon’s favor as it needs to resolve the issue which would pave the way for other solutions to its numerous crises.

Ortagus met during her visit with Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Berri.

Talks with the Lebanese leaders helped “soften the American stance” over Lebanon’s approach towards Hezbollah’s weapons possession because “resorting to force to disarm the party will jeopardize civil peace in the country,” said the sources.

Ortagus stated she was willing to travel to Beirut for a third time this year, possibly at the end of April or early May, to follow up on financial reforms and efforts to limit the possession of weapons to the state.

She has stressed the need for Lebanon to meet its obligations “as soon as possible” to avoid the dialogue becoming a waste of time and to prevent Lebanon from heading towards a collision course with the international community which has set as a priority the state achieving monopoly over arms.

Fulfilling that demand will restore confidence in Lebanon and speed up international efforts to help it resolve its crises.

The sources said Hezbollah is aware that limiting the possession of weapons won’t happen “at the press of a button.” However, stalling over the issue will not provide it with excuses to renege on its commitment to implement United Nations Security Council resolution 1701 and declaration that it will stand by the state in reaching diplomatic solutions that would make Israel respect the ceasefire and withdraw from the South.

Hezbollah has effectively become isolated with no allies but Berri. The party cannot escape local, Arab and international pressure to disarm, especially after the weakening of the “Resistance Axis”, which it is a part of, and Iran’s waning influence in the region, political sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Iran’s sole concern now is protecting its regime, they stressed.

So, Hezbollah has no choice but to join efforts to build a state and commit to conditions that have been imposed by the changes in the region and Lebanon, they went to say.

Hezbollah’s launch of its “support front” with Gaza and dragging Lebanon into a reckless confrontation with Israel has cost it dearly and it can no longer rise from under the rubble – in the political sense – without outside financial and economic support to help it rebuild what Israel destroyed, said the sources.

The question remains: will dialogue lead Hezbollah to disarm and agree to the state to have monopoly over weapons? Or will it use the dialogue to gain time as Iran seeks to improve its conditions as it prepares to hold negotiations with the US?

European parties had advised the party to reassess its calculations and reconsider its stances so that it places Lebanon first in its political choices so that it can reconcile with its political parties after years of tensions sparked by its monopoly of the decision of war and peace.