Saada Houthis Exclude their Coup Partners from Sanaa Talks

Part of the meetings of the Saudi and Omani delegations with the Houthis in Sanaa (AFP)
Part of the meetings of the Saudi and Omani delegations with the Houthis in Sanaa (AFP)
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Saada Houthis Exclude their Coup Partners from Sanaa Talks

Part of the meetings of the Saudi and Omani delegations with the Houthis in Sanaa (AFP)
Part of the meetings of the Saudi and Omani delegations with the Houthis in Sanaa (AFP)

A state of anger prevails among Yemeni political leaders who are nominally partners with the Houthis after they have been excluded from the consultations led by the Saudi and Omani delegations, according to political sources in Sanaa.

Saudi and Omani delegations arrived in Sanaa last Sunday for talks with Houthi officials seeking a permanent ceasefire.

They aimed to finalize the draft of a peace agreement to expand the truce and include new items such as paying public wages, unifying the currency, and establishing a negotiating path that ends the conflict.

The sources confirmed that leaders of the General People's Congress and other officials were not pleased that they were not included in the meetings.

Photos from the meetings showed the Saudi and Omani delegations in the Republican Palace in Sanaa with Houthi representatives from Saada and another official.

During past meetings in the Palace, the group excluded the head of its coup government, Abdulaziz bin Habtoor, its foreign minister, Hisham Sharaf, its parliament speaker, Yahya al-Ra'i, and leaders from other parties.

It showed that the Houthi officials from Saada controlled the group and seized most of its financial resources.

Activists and Congress party members criticized senior leaders, demanding a response from the officials who were excluded from the meetings.

Partisan activists in Sanaa asserted that the Houthi "Saada wing" controls the group's decisions, adding that these leaders do not believe in dialogue and do not accept national partnership.

Congress party member and lawmaker Abdulrahman Saleh Maazeb strongly criticized the group's move against its allies, noting that the party leaders were excluded from the reception of the Saudi and Omani delegations, even if only formally, despite being the group's equal partners.

Activists loyal to the group in Sana' expressed their deep dissatisfaction with the "deliberate exclusion" of Sanaa leaders and coup partners from attending the talks.

One of the politicians loyal to the group addressed its Saada leaders in a statement, saying they have proven their "racism and regionalism."

Yemeni activists expressed their disapproval of the militia's exclusion of other "active" leaders and coup partners, such as the head of the coup government, the leader Abdulaziz bin Habtoor, the head of the Congress-Sanaa wing, Sadiq Amin Abu Ras, the coup's foreign minister Hisham Sharaf, the coup speaker, Yahya al-Rai, and the head of the coup's advisory council, Mohammad al-Aidarous.

Local reports indicated that the Houthi militia prevented the Foreign Minister of its unrecognized government, Hisham Sharaf, was also excluded from the meeting. Instead, the deputy minister Hussein al-Ezzi, regionally affiliated with Saada and a descendant of the Houthi leader, attended the talks.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”