Oil Edges Down on US Recession Risk

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
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Oil Edges Down on US Recession Risk

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo

Oil prices slipped on Thursday as the prospect of a possible recession in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, offset concerns of tight supply.

Brent crude fell 55 cents, or 0.63%, to $86.78 a barrel by 1352 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 46 cents, or 0.55%, to $82.80.

Both Brent and WTI had risen 2% on Wednesday to their highest in more than a month as cooling US inflation spurred hopes that the US Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates.

However, minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting indicated that banking sector stress could tip the economy into recession, which would weaken US oil demand.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) flagged downside risks to summer oil demand in a monthly report on Thursday. But OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 unchanged.

The market is a keeping a close eye on indicators of economic growth, which Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM described as fragile. "Inflationary pressure could easily become elevated again," Varga said.

The market is still reeling from the shock decision by OPEC and its allies, together known as OPEC+, to cut output further.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency expects the move to tighten supply in the second half of the year and push oil prices higher, Reuters reported.

However, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday highlighted the risk this poses to global economic expansion.

For every 10% rise in the price of oil, IMF models show a 0.1 percentage point reduction in growth and a 0.3 percentage point increase in inflation, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Markets on Wednesday shrugged off a small build in US crude oil stocks, attributing it in part to a release of oil from the US emergency reserve and lower exports at the start of the month.

The Biden administration plans to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve soon and hopes to do it at lower oil prices, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Wednesday.



Mawani Adds Marsa Ocean Shipping's RSX Service to Jeddah Islamic Port

Mawani Adds Marsa Ocean Shipping's RSX Service to Jeddah Islamic Port
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Mawani Adds Marsa Ocean Shipping's RSX Service to Jeddah Islamic Port

Mawani Adds Marsa Ocean Shipping's RSX Service to Jeddah Islamic Port

The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) has announced the addition of the RSX service by Marsa Ocean Shipping to Jeddah Islamic Port, featuring a capacity of up to 372 TEUs and connecting Jeddah with the regional ports of Aden, Hodeidah, and Djibouti, SPA reported.

This expansion aligns with the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, aiming to enhance the Kingdom’s operational efficiency and its ranking in global performance indicators.

As a primary gateway, Jeddah Islamic Port utilizes its 62 multipurpose berths and specialized terminals to support a total capacity of 130 million tons, reinforcing Saudi Arabia’s position as a global logistics hub connecting three continents.


China Says Hopes to Boost Trade Cooperation with US

 A street cleaner walks by food delivery riders gather outside restaurants waiting for their online orders, in Beijing, China, Wednesday, March 25, 2026. (AP)
A street cleaner walks by food delivery riders gather outside restaurants waiting for their online orders, in Beijing, China, Wednesday, March 25, 2026. (AP)
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China Says Hopes to Boost Trade Cooperation with US

 A street cleaner walks by food delivery riders gather outside restaurants waiting for their online orders, in Beijing, China, Wednesday, March 25, 2026. (AP)
A street cleaner walks by food delivery riders gather outside restaurants waiting for their online orders, in Beijing, China, Wednesday, March 25, 2026. (AP)

China wishes to strengthen economic cooperation with the United States to avoid "vicious competition", commerce minister Wang Wentao told US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to a readout released on Friday.

The two met on Thursday on the sidelines of a World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial conference in Cameroon's capital, less than two months ahead of US President Donald Trump's planned visit to Beijing.

"China is willing to strengthen multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation with the United States," Wang told Greer, according to a statement by the Beijing's Ministry of Commerce.

The two powers must "properly handle the relationship between competition and cooperation" and "avoid vicious competition," he said.

The world's two largest economies were locked in a bitter trade battle last year before agreeing to a truce in October.

High-level talks in Paris this month between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng also helped to ease tensions.

Nevertheless, issues including US tariffs, a trade balance in China's favor, and US restrictions on exports of advanced technologies continue to threaten relations.

Wang expressed "grave concerns" on Thursday regarding recently announced US trade investigations signaling the possibility of fresh tariffs.

Washington's trade investigations target 60 economies, including China, and will look into "failures to take action on forced labor" and whether these burden or restrict US commerce.

The White House has said Trump will visit Beijing on May 14-15, with the timing postponed by several weeks as a result of the war in the Middle East.


Dollar Rides Haven Demand as Middle East Talks Ring Hollow

An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)
An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)
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Dollar Rides Haven Demand as Middle East Talks Ring Hollow

An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)
An electronic panel displays US Dollar currency symbol at an exchange office in Podolsk, outside Moscow, Russia, 26 March 2026. (EPA)

The dollar hovered near multi-month peaks on Friday as investors sought safety in the shadow of an intensifying Middle East war and mounting doubts over any path to de-escalation.

Markets were on edge following another rollercoaster week as US President Donald Trump again extended a deadline for striking Iran's energy facilities into April, even as Washington and Tehran offered starkly conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress.

The Pentagon is also looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, doing little to bolster investor hopes ‌of an imminent ‌end to the war.

That kept the dollar bid ‌as ⁠investors flocked to ⁠the safe-haven currency and ramped up expectations of a US rate hike by the year-end, owing to the inflationary pulse from higher-for-longer energy prices.

The yen, on the other hand, was left on the cusp of 160 per dollar and stood at 159.58. The euro was nursing losses and tacked on 0.1% to $1.1540, while sterling was little changed at $1.3339.

"It doesn't look like the conflict will end anytime soon," said Carol Kong, a ⁠currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "The dollar is king while ‌this conflict lasts."

"If we're right about this ‌conflict being protracted, I think oil prices will just keep rising and it will ‌push the dollar higher, at the expense of net energy importers like the Japanese ‌yen and the euro," she added.

The darkening market mood sent the risk-sensitive Australian dollar down to a two-month trough, though it later rebounded and traded 0.2% higher at $0.6903. The New Zealand dollar languished near its lowest level since January and last stood at $0.5769.

Against a basket ‌of currencies, the dollar was marginally weaker at 99.83, but still on track for a 2.2% rise this month, which would ⁠mark its ⁠biggest gain since July last year.

Investors are now pricing in an over 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve by September, according to CME Fedwatch tool, in a sharp reversal from more than 50 bps worth of easing expected before the war.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are also seen tightening policy, with the hawkish sea change in rate expectations hammering bonds and sending yields rising.

"A more prolonged disruption to energy supplies would deliver a larger hit to activity that would meet most definitions of a global recession and prompt a broader monetary tightening cycle," said analysts at Capital Economics in a note.

Yields on US Treasuries edged slightly higher on Friday, following a sharp rise overnight, with the two-year yield at 3.9899%. The benchmark 10-year yield was up about 1 bp to 4.4278%.