Oil Edges Down on US Recession Risk

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
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Oil Edges Down on US Recession Risk

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo

Oil prices slipped on Thursday as the prospect of a possible recession in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, offset concerns of tight supply.

Brent crude fell 55 cents, or 0.63%, to $86.78 a barrel by 1352 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 46 cents, or 0.55%, to $82.80.

Both Brent and WTI had risen 2% on Wednesday to their highest in more than a month as cooling US inflation spurred hopes that the US Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates.

However, minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting indicated that banking sector stress could tip the economy into recession, which would weaken US oil demand.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) flagged downside risks to summer oil demand in a monthly report on Thursday. But OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 unchanged.

The market is a keeping a close eye on indicators of economic growth, which Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM described as fragile. "Inflationary pressure could easily become elevated again," Varga said.

The market is still reeling from the shock decision by OPEC and its allies, together known as OPEC+, to cut output further.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency expects the move to tighten supply in the second half of the year and push oil prices higher, Reuters reported.

However, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday highlighted the risk this poses to global economic expansion.

For every 10% rise in the price of oil, IMF models show a 0.1 percentage point reduction in growth and a 0.3 percentage point increase in inflation, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Markets on Wednesday shrugged off a small build in US crude oil stocks, attributing it in part to a release of oil from the US emergency reserve and lower exports at the start of the month.

The Biden administration plans to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve soon and hopes to do it at lower oil prices, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Wednesday.



Tesla Loses Title as World's Biggest Electric Vehicle

(FILES) BYD's display booth is seen during the 32nd Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) at the Indonesia Convention Exhibition (ICE) in Tangerang, Greater Jakarta, on July 23, 2025. (Photo by Yasuyoshi CHIBA / AFP)
(FILES) BYD's display booth is seen during the 32nd Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) at the Indonesia Convention Exhibition (ICE) in Tangerang, Greater Jakarta, on July 23, 2025. (Photo by Yasuyoshi CHIBA / AFP)
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Tesla Loses Title as World's Biggest Electric Vehicle

(FILES) BYD's display booth is seen during the 32nd Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) at the Indonesia Convention Exhibition (ICE) in Tangerang, Greater Jakarta, on July 23, 2025. (Photo by Yasuyoshi CHIBA / AFP)
(FILES) BYD's display booth is seen during the 32nd Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) at the Indonesia Convention Exhibition (ICE) in Tangerang, Greater Jakarta, on July 23, 2025. (Photo by Yasuyoshi CHIBA / AFP)

Tesla lost its crown as the world’s bestselling electric vehicle maker on Friday as a customer revolt over Elon Musk’s right-wing politics and stiff overseas competition pushed sales down for a second year in a row.

Tesla said that it delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down 9% from a year earlier.

Chinese rival BYD, which sold 2.26 vehicles last year, is now the biggest EV maker, The Associated Press reported.

For the fourth quarter, sales totaled 418,227, falling short of the 440,000 that analysts polled by FactSet expected. The sales total may likely have been impacted by the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit that was phased out by the Trump administration at the end of September.

Even with multiple issues buffeting the company, the stock finished 2025 with a gain of approximately 11%, as investors hope Tesla CEO Musk can deliver on his ambitions to make Tesla a leader in robotaxi service and get consumers to embrace humanoid robots that can perform basic tasks in homes and offices.

Shares of Tesla rose almost 2% before the opening bell Friday.


Precious Metals Start 2026 Strong on Rate-cut Optimism, Global Risks

(FILES) A worker polishes gold bullion bars at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
(FILES) A worker polishes gold bullion bars at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
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Precious Metals Start 2026 Strong on Rate-cut Optimism, Global Risks

(FILES) A worker polishes gold bullion bars at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)
(FILES) A worker polishes gold bullion bars at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. (Photo by DAVID GRAY / AFP)

Precious metals kicked off the New Year on a strong note on Friday, rebounding from year-end declines as tensions between major powers and US rate cut hopes boosted investor appetite for bullion.

Spot gold climbed 1.7% to $4,387.58 per ounce, as of 1322 GMT, after hitting a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26. It had dropped to a two-week low on Wednesday, Reuters reported.

US gold futures for February delivery gained 1.3% to $4,399.20/oz.

"Precious metals have kicked off 2026 on ⁠a firmly positive note ... after a bout of profit taking in the last days of 2025, bulls seem to be drawing strength from geopolitical risk and hopes of lower US rates this year," said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.

On the physical demand side, gold traded at a premium in top hubs India and China for the first time in about ⁠two months, as a recent correction from all-time highs helped lift retail demand.

Bullion surged 64% in 2025, its biggest annual gain since 1979, driven by Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, strong central bank buying, and rising ETF holdings.

"Gold prices are expected to move higher in 2026 - we target a move to USD 5,000/oz - driven by lower real yields, ongoing global economic concerns, and uncertainty surrounding US domestic policy," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

"Both central banks and investors are likely to continue favoring real assets like gold for its freedom from counterparty risk."

Investors currently expect at least two ⁠quarter-point Fed rate cuts this year.

Non-yielding assets tend to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Spot silver advanced 3.4% to $73.71 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $83.62 on Monday, while platinum jumped 3.3% at $2,121.38 per ounce, after rising to an all-time high of $2,478.50 on Monday.

Both metals recorded their best year ever, with silver leading by posting 147% annual gains, driven by its designation as a critical US mineral, supply shortages and low inventories amid rising industrial and investment demand.

Palladium rose 1.9% to $1,636.19 per ounce, after closing the previous year up 76%, its best in 15 years.

All metals retreated sharply earlier in the week as traders booked profits after CME raised margins on precious metal futures.


Oil Steadies after Biggest Annual Loss Since 2020

FILE PHOTO: A worker stands in front of storage tanks at the Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse at the Russian Black Sea coast September 6, 2006. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A worker stands in front of storage tanks at the Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse at the Russian Black Sea coast September 6, 2006. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin/File Photo
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Oil Steadies after Biggest Annual Loss Since 2020

FILE PHOTO: A worker stands in front of storage tanks at the Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse at the Russian Black Sea coast September 6, 2006. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A worker stands in front of storage tanks at the Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse at the Russian Black Sea coast September 6, 2006. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin/File Photo

Oil prices steadied on the first day of trade in 2026 after registering their biggest annual loss since 2020 as investors weighed oversupply concerns against geopolitical risks including the war in Ukraine and Venezuela exports.

Brent crude futures dropped 4 cents on Friday to $60.81 a barrel by 1029 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 3 cents at $57.39, said Reuters.

Russia and Ukraine traded allegations of attacks on civilians on ‌New Year's Day ‌despite talks overseen by US President Donald ‌Trump ⁠that are ‌aimed at bringing an end to the nearly four-year-old war.

Kyiv has been intensifying strikes against Russian energy infrastructure in recent months, aiming to cut off Moscow's sources of financing for its military campaign in Ukraine.

Elsewhere, the Trump administration's efforts to increase pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro continued with Wednesday's imposition of sanctions on four companies and associated oil ⁠tankers that it said were operating in Venezuela’s oil sector.

Traders widely expect OPEC+ to continue its pause on output increases in the first quarter, said Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh.

"2026 will be an important year on assessing OPEC+ decisions for balancing supply," ⁠she said, adding that China would continue to build crude stockpiles in the first half, providing a floor for oil prices.

2025 LOSSES

The Brent and WTI benchmarks recorded annual losses of nearly 20% in 2025, the steepest since 2020, as concerns about oversupply and tariffs outweighed geopolitical risks. It was the third straight year of losses for Brent, the longest such streak on record.

"As of now, we are expecting a fairly boring year for (Brent) oil prices, range-bound around $60-65 a barrel," said DBS energy analyst Suvro Sarkar.

Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said ‌the muted price movement reflected a struggle between short-term geopolitical risks and longer-term market fundamentals that point towards oversupply.