Lebanon: Divorce between Aoun, Hezbollah Is Final

Hezbollah is accused of stabbing the FPM several times in the back.

Then FPM leader Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shake hands as they declare their understanding in February 2006. (Reuters)
Then FPM leader Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shake hands as they declare their understanding in February 2006. (Reuters)
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Lebanon: Divorce between Aoun, Hezbollah Is Final

Then FPM leader Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shake hands as they declare their understanding in February 2006. (Reuters)
Then FPM leader Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shake hands as they declare their understanding in February 2006. (Reuters)

A Lebanese official following the relations between former President Michel Aoun with Hezbollah said the “marriage” between them, which was held at a Maronite church in Beirut’s southern suburbs in 2006, is over.

All that is left is for them to announce the official divorce, marking an end to an alliance between two of the most opposite parties in Lebanon.

Many had believed that the understanding - signed at the Mar Mikhael church in February 2006 between then head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) Michel Aoun and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah - was doomed to fail.

Even though it brought two parties that could not be any more different, their understanding turned out to be a solid alliance wherein the personal relations between Aoun and Nasrallah played a big role in consolidating it, leading to a major change in Lebanon’s political identity.

However, Aoun’s political successor, his son-in-law and MP Gebran Bassil played a major role in ruining the understanding, leading to its collapse and now, divorce.

The FPM and Hezbollah achieved major gains from the alliance. Hezbollah gained sizeable Christian cover for its arsenal of weapons, while the FPM gained unlimited support in internal files that allowed it at first to control Christian shares in governments and then state institutions. The alliance also allowed Aoun to be elected president after two years of vacuum in the country’s top post.

Ironically, Aoun’s election as president marked the beginning of the end of the alliance. As soon as Aoun became head of state, he found himself at great odds with influential parliament Speaker Nabi Berri, a major ally of Hezbollah.

Aoun believed that Hezbollah’s support to him in domestic affairs must be unlimited, but the party chose to take the middle ground and avoid confronting Berri out of its keenness on the “unity of Shiite ranks.” Aoun was very disappointed, openly informing his guests that Berri was the greatest obstacle to his presidential achievements and Hezbollah did not intervene to rein in its ally.

Aoun believes that Berri was the major obstacle that hindered the success of his term as president – an argument that many agree with. Hezbollah chose to take a “hands off” approach in internal files, prioritizing its regional role.

Berri, however, did not take a “hands off” approach. He confronted Aoun’s ambitions in state institutions. The speaker is a main political player and refused to turn into an “affiliate” to Aoun, said one of the figures close to him. The lack of “political chemistry” between Aoun and Berri was obvious to them and others from the start.

Aoun’s term in office ended with a vacuum in the presidency with political parties failing to elect a successor. The way Hezbollah is approaching the vacuum has dealt a strong blow to the alliance with Aoun.

The party is clear in backing the candidacy of former minister Suleiman Franjieh, but Bassil, now head of the FPM, has strongly rejected this choice. He believes that he has made a great sacrifice by refraining from nominating himself, calling on Hezbollah to reach an understanding with him over a “third choice”.

Nasrallah and Bassil met, with the former frankly telling him that Franjieh was their choice. Bassil strongly opposed the suggestion. Nasrallah told him to think about it, but Bassil was adamant in rejecting Franjieh.

Other points of contention were related to the caretaker government. The FPM argued that the government, in its caretaker capacity, could not hold meetings amid the presidential vacuum. Hezbollah disagreed and granted the needed quorum for the cabinet meetings to be held. Bassil was furious, striking below the belt by speaking of “honest parties who renege on the agreement, vow and guarantee.” The party was forced to respond openly to the accusation, the first time it had done so since the 2006 understanding.

The relationship between Hezbollah and the FPM was based partially on the latter’s support of the party's conflict with Israel. In return, the party would support the FPM in domestic political affairs, leading to a “balanced partnership”, as Bassil has told his visitors. An imbalance in this equation will break the partnership. On whether Hezbollah’s latest positions were viewed as a stab in the back, Bassil’s visitors said: “There are many knives in the back this time.”

Hezbollah and Bassil’s ties were never completely rosy. Bassil never shied away from criticizing the party every now and then. His biggest reservation was that the party prioritized its relations with Shiites over all else. According to Bassil, this “encouraged corruption and prevented the rise of state institutions.” Bassil went so far as to tell his visitors that Hezbollah fought for Aoun to be elected president and when he finally became so, it did not support him in the battle to build the state, abandoning him before his rivals.

Bassil’s visitors said he was clear with Hezbollah over the need to agree on another presidential candidate besides Franjieh. “If they believe he is maneuvering or seeking something else in return, they are wrong and it would be a big problem if the party believes so,” they added.

Bassil has said that the relationship between the FPM and Hezbollah was perfect. “We were capable of reaching understandings with foreign parties, while in return, the resistance [Hezbollah] would perform its duty in protecting the nation,” he was quoted as saying.

In short, Bassil believed that the 2006 understanding with Hezbollah changed Lebanon's identity and if the relations with the party were to collapse, then Lebanon’s identity will again be changed.

Hezbollah’s view

In return, Hezbollah appears unconvinced of Bassil’s justifications. An official close to the party said the divorce has happened with the party and they are now awaiting the official announcement. He stressed, however, that the announcement will not be made by the party, leaving it up to Bassil.

The official disagrees with the Aounist camp’s claims that the FPM’s support for Hezbollah gave the former free reign in domestic affairs. “They are giving the party support it doesn’t need. It is already a regional power and recognized as so by the world,” he remarked.

Internally, he said the “weight” of the alliance with the FPM “cost Hezbollah several of its Christian friends and strained its relations with other parties because it was always siding with Bassil.”

Moreover, he added that the formation of governments was obstructed on numerous occasions “just so Bassil could get what he wanted. The parliament was also obstructed just so Aoun could be elected president.”

The party is clear in saying that Bassil takes issues personally. It holds him responsible for the failure to form a new government before Aoun’s term ended. At the time, Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati agreed to Bassil’s conditions, but at the very last minute, the FPM leader said he would not support the new lineup even though he was to be granted shares other than those of the president and the greatest number of seats as he demanded.

Even in rejecting Franjieh’s nomination, Hezbollah believes that Bassil is taking issues personally. The official said the MP constantly tries to undermine Franjieh’s image and influence, even calling him by his first name, without any of his titles.

The official added, however, that he has not ruled out the possibility that Bassil could take advantage of the political upheaval and possibility of the United States lifting sanctions on him to emerge as a leading candidate for the presidency. Hezbollah does not have a Plan B to deal with such a scenario, acknowledged the official.



Where Do Trade Talks Stand in the Rush to Avert Higher US Tariffs?

FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo
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Where Do Trade Talks Stand in the Rush to Avert Higher US Tariffs?

FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo

As a Wednesday deadline approaches for steeper US tariffs to hit dozens of economies ranging from the EU to India, trade negotiations with President Donald Trump's administration are coming down to the wire.

The levies taking effect July 9 were announced in April, with the White House citing a lack of "reciprocity" in trade relations. But they were swiftly halted, allowing room for talks.

Days before their reimposition, where do things stand?

EU: 'Ready' for deal

The European Union said it is "ready for a deal" with Washington, with the bloc's trade chief meeting his US counterparts Thursday.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was targeting an "agreement in principle" when it came to the July 9 cutoff, AFP reported.

With no deal, the US tariff on EU goods doubles from the "baseline" of 10 percent to 20 percent -- with Trump previously threatening a 50 percent level.

Vietnam: A pact with uncertainties

Washington and Hanoi unveiled a trade pact Wednesday with much fanfare and few details, but it allowed Vietnam to avoid Trump's initial 46 percent tariff.

Under the agreement, Vietnamese goods face a minimum 20 percent tariff while products made elsewhere face a 40 percent levy -- a clause to restrict "transshipping" by Chinese groups.

But there remain questions on how the higher levy would apply to products using foreign parts.

There is also a risk that Beijing will adopt retaliatory measures, analysts warned.

Japan: Rice, autos at stake

Despite being a close US ally and major source of foreign investment, Japan might not escape Trump's tariff hike.

Tokyo's trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa has made numerous trips to Washington through the end of June.

But Trump recently criticized what he described as Japan's reluctance to open up further to US rice and auto exports.

"I'm not sure we're going to make a deal," Trump said, adding that the country could pay a tariff of "30 percent, 35 percent, or whatever the number is that we determine."

India: A good position

Indian manufacturers and exporters want to believe they can avoid a 26 percent tariff.

Negotiations between both countries have been going well for weeks, and Trump himself suggested at the end of June that a "very big" agreement was imminent.

Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations, said the feedback he received "suggests positive developments." But he maintained that the situation was fluid.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has stressed that agriculture and dairy products remain "very big red lines."

South Korea: Muted optimism

Seoul, which is already reeling from US tariffs on steel and autos, wants to avert a sweeping 25 percent levy on its other exports.

Cooperation in shipbuilding could be a bargaining chip, but "at this stage, both sides still haven't clearly defined what exactly they want," said new President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday.

"I can't say with confidence that we'll be able to wrap everything up by July 8," he added.

Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan in the wings

Other Asian economies including Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia, which faces a 49 percent tariff, wait with bated breath.

Indonesia has indicated willingness to boost energy, agriculture and merchandise imports from the United States. Bangladesh meanwhile is proposing to buy Boeing planes and step up imports of US agriculture products.

Taiwan, for whom Washington is a vital security partner, faces a 32 percent duty without a pact.

Although both sides have faced bumps along the way, Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim said "negotiators from both sides are working diligently" to find a path forward.

Switzerland: Hope for delay

Switzerland's government said Washington has acknowledged it was acting in good faith, and assumes its tariff level will remain at 10 percent on July 9 while negotiations continue.

But without a decision by the president as of the end of June, Switzerland did not rule out that levies could still rise to a promised 31 percent.