IMF Warns: MENA Region Faces 4 Challenges

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
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IMF Warns: MENA Region Faces 4 Challenges

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)

Growth of the real GDP in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to slow this year to 3.1 percent from 5.3 percent in the previous year, announced Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Jihad Azour.

Azour added that inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at around 15 percent this year before declining modestly in 2024.

In a videoconference attended by Asharq Al-Awsat, Azour explained that the MENA countries face four challenges this year, which are dealing with the effects of inflation, global uncertainty, international financing difficulties, and economic reform developments.

Azour explained that dealing with inflation may require increasing interest rates, which affects economic growth. At the same time, uncertainty and geopolitical tensions pervade all global horizons, and their consequences fall on everyone's shoulders.

Concerning oil-importing countries, the rise in energy prices increases the risks, especially with the increase in the cost of financing and the difficulty in obtaining it. As for the oil-exporting countries, the most critical challenge is growing and diversifying revenues.

Meanwhile, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Taiani said Thursday that his country wants the IMF to start disbursing a loan to Tunisia without conditions.

During a press conference with his Tunisian counterpart, Tajani vowed to work on Tunisia's behalf in negotiations with the IMF, repeating Italy's proposal that the loan be delivered in two tranches and not be fully dependent on all reforms being in place.

"But not utterly conditional on... the conclusion of the reform process. Start financing, encourage the reforms," he told reporters.

Last week, President Kais Saied rejected IMF "diktats", which asked Tunisia to carry out economic reforms and subsidy cuts as terms for the stalled bailout.

Saeed said he would "not hear diktats" from abroad, warning that the subsidies could lead to unrest.

European leaders feared the collapse of the Tunisian economy could increase the influx of immigrants to European shores.

Tunisia's debts amount to about 80 percent of its gross domestic product, and it reached a preliminary agreement with the Fund in mid-October for a new $1.9 billion loan to help overcome the financial crisis.

However, talks reached a dead end after Tunisia failed to implement a reform program to restructure more than 100 indebted state-owned companies and lift subsidies on some essential goods and services.



US Labor Market Slows Despite Job Adds in May

Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)
Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)
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US Labor Market Slows Despite Job Adds in May

Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)
Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)

The United States added 139,000 jobs in May, more than expected but pointing to a labor market that continues to slow.

The employment data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded forecasts for about 120,000 payroll gains but marked a decline from the revised 147,000 jobs added in April. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, remaining near historic lows.

Stocks surged at Friday's open, with all three major indexes gaining about 1%.

In return, US government borrowing costs climbed as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer, making it less attractive to hold US debt.

The BLS report showed job losses in the federal government continued to pile up, with that sector shedding 22,000 roles in May alone.

The federal workforce is down by 59,000 since January, largely due to sweeping cuts by the Trump administration and multibillionaire tech executive Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency project.

Even as the economy continued to add jobs at a relatively steady clip last month, the report showed other signs of a weakening labor market.

The ratio of employed workers to the total population fell to 59.7%, its lowest since the pandemic.

An alternative measure of unemployment that includes “discouraged” workers, or those who have stopped looking for work, returned to a post-pandemic high of 4.5%.

But President Donald Trump cheered the numbers, posting on his Truth Social platform Friday morning: “AMERICA IS HOT! SIX MONTHS AGO IT WAS COLD AS ICE! BORDER IS CLOSED, PRICES ARE DOWN. WAGES ARE UP!”

Trump had urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to slash interest rates by a full percentage point.

“Too Late' at the Fed is a disaster!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

In reality, employers added 212,000 jobs in November, unemployment was at 4.1%, the 12-month average of hourly pay gains have softened from nearly 4.2% then to 3.9% in May, and both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio were slightly higher.

Only consumer prices have meaningfully cooled, ticking down from an annual inflation rate of 2.7% in November to 2.3% in April, the latest month with available data.

Analysts at Capital Economics called the May jobs report “not as good as it looks.”

Still, they wrote in a note Friday, “it shows that tariffs are having little negative impact” and added that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue holding interest rates steady “while it assesses the effects of policy changes on the economy.”