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IMF Warns: MENA Region Faces 4 Challenges

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
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IMF Warns: MENA Region Faces 4 Challenges

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)

Growth of the real GDP in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to slow this year to 3.1 percent from 5.3 percent in the previous year, announced Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Jihad Azour.

Azour added that inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at around 15 percent this year before declining modestly in 2024.

In a videoconference attended by Asharq Al-Awsat, Azour explained that the MENA countries face four challenges this year, which are dealing with the effects of inflation, global uncertainty, international financing difficulties, and economic reform developments.

Azour explained that dealing with inflation may require increasing interest rates, which affects economic growth. At the same time, uncertainty and geopolitical tensions pervade all global horizons, and their consequences fall on everyone's shoulders.

Concerning oil-importing countries, the rise in energy prices increases the risks, especially with the increase in the cost of financing and the difficulty in obtaining it. As for the oil-exporting countries, the most critical challenge is growing and diversifying revenues.

Meanwhile, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Taiani said Thursday that his country wants the IMF to start disbursing a loan to Tunisia without conditions.

During a press conference with his Tunisian counterpart, Tajani vowed to work on Tunisia's behalf in negotiations with the IMF, repeating Italy's proposal that the loan be delivered in two tranches and not be fully dependent on all reforms being in place.

"But not utterly conditional on... the conclusion of the reform process. Start financing, encourage the reforms," he told reporters.

Last week, President Kais Saied rejected IMF "diktats", which asked Tunisia to carry out economic reforms and subsidy cuts as terms for the stalled bailout.

Saeed said he would "not hear diktats" from abroad, warning that the subsidies could lead to unrest.

European leaders feared the collapse of the Tunisian economy could increase the influx of immigrants to European shores.

Tunisia's debts amount to about 80 percent of its gross domestic product, and it reached a preliminary agreement with the Fund in mid-October for a new $1.9 billion loan to help overcome the financial crisis.

However, talks reached a dead end after Tunisia failed to implement a reform program to restructure more than 100 indebted state-owned companies and lift subsidies on some essential goods and services.

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Aramco Sees ‘Catastrophic Consequences’ for Oil Markets if Hormuz Strait Remains Blocked

President and CEO of Saudi's Aramco, Amin Nasser, speaks during the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 29, 2024. (Reuters)
President and CEO of Saudi's Aramco, Amin Nasser, speaks during the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 29, 2024. (Reuters)
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Aramco Sees ‘Catastrophic Consequences’ for Oil Markets if Hormuz Strait Remains Blocked

President and CEO of Saudi's Aramco, Amin Nasser, speaks during the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 29, 2024. (Reuters)
President and CEO of Saudi's Aramco, Amin Nasser, speaks during the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 29, 2024. (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's Aramco , the world's top oil exporter, said on Tuesday there would be "catastrophic consequences" for the world's oil markets if the Iran war continues to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil shipments have been largely blocked from using the shipping artery, where normally roughly 20% of the world's oil would pass through daily. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they would not allow "one liter of oil" to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue.

"There would be catastrophic consequences for the world's oil markets and the longer the disruption goes on ... the more drastic the consequences for the global economy," Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told reporters on an earnings call.

"While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced."

WIDE RANGE OF SECTORS MAY BE HIT

The crisis has not only ‌upended the shipping ‌and insurance sectors, but it also promises to have drastic domino effects on aviation, agriculture, automotive ‌and ⁠other industries, he added.

Global ⁠crude benchmark Brent, which rocketed to a more than three-year high of nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, was trading around $92 on Tuesday following comments by US President Donald Trump predicting the war could end soon.

Trump, however, warned that the US would hit Iran much harder if it blocked exports from the vital energy-producing region.

He has also said the US Navy could escort ships in the Gulf to guarantee safe passage. But the Navy's capacity to do that is unclear, with some vessels already engaged in strikes against Iran and shooting down its missiles.

Asked about US Navy escorts and whether they were possible on the scale required, Nasser said there are sizable volumes involved, ⁠adding that Aramco's customers assume the risk of delivery.

"Of course, we would support any actions ‌or measures that would help to deliver our products to our customers, to ‌the global market," he said.

NO EXPORTS FROM THE GULF

Nasser noted global inventories of oil ‌were at a five-year low and said the crisis will lead to drawdowns at a faster rate, adding that it was critical that shipping in the strait resumed.

"Unfortunately, for global markets, most of the spare capacity is in this region," Nasser told analysts on a call, noting that incremental demand throughout the year will keep the market tightly balanced.

At present, Aramco is not exporting oil from the Gulf as ships cannot load ‌cargoes there. But the company, which does not disclose its exact crude output, is meeting the majority of its customers' needs, he said, partly by tapping into global inventories.

"Now, that ⁠cannot be used - that inventory - ⁠for an extended period of time, but for the time being, we are capitalizing on it," he said.

The East-West pipeline is, meanwhile, being used to transport mostly Arab Light and some Arab Extra Light crude grades to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The pipeline, which has more than doubled its initial capacity, is expected to reach its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day in the next couple of days as customers re-route, Nasser said.

"Even with our ability to export through the western region, you're talking about close to 350 million barrels of disruptions that will come off the market," he said.

In addition to the pipeline, Aramco is also able to direct crude towards domestic demand, he noted. Close to 2 million bpd of the pipeline's 7 million bpd capacity is going to western domestic refineries, which are net exporters of products, Nasser added.

A small fire from an attack last week on Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery, its largest domestically, was quickly extinguished and brought under control, Nasser said, adding that the refinery was in the process of being restarted.

Business

Saudi Economy Records Strongest Growth in Two Years in 2025

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 
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Saudi Economy Records Strongest Growth in Two Years in 2025

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters) 

Saudi Arabia’s economy posted its strongest growth in two years in 2025, expanding by 4.5 percent, supported by gains across all major economic sectors and a robust performance in the final quarter of the year.

According to estimates released by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.5 percent in 2025 compared with 2024, driven by growth in oil and non-oil and government activities.

Oil-related activities rose 5.7 percent, while non-oil sectors expanded by 4.9 percent. Government activities recorded more modest growth of 0.9 percent.

Data showed that non-oil sectors were the main contributor to overall GDP growth in 2025, adding 2.8 percentage points to the annual expansion. Oil activities contributed 1.4 percentage points, while government activities and net taxes on products added 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively.

Sector performance

All major economic sectors recorded positive growth during the year.

Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels led sectoral growth, expanding 6.2 percent. Financial, insurance and business services followed with 6.1 percent, while electricity, gas and water activities grew 6 percent.

Crude oil and natural gas activities increased 5.8 percent, and oil refining rose 5.7 percent.

Spending components

On the expenditure side, private final consumption grew 3.5 percent in 2025. However, government final consumption spending declined 3.5 percent, while gross fixed capital formation fell 1.7 percent.

In external trade, exports of goods and services rose 8.9 percent, while imports increased 4.7 percent during the year. According to the data, Saudi Arabia’s GDP at current prices reached 4.789 trillion riyals in 2025.

Crude oil and natural gas activities accounted for the largest share of economic output at 17.1 percent, followed by government activities at 14 percent and wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels at 12.3 percent.

Manufacturing industries (excluding oil refining) contributed 11.1 percent to GDP, followed by construction at 8 percent, and financial, insurance and business services at 7 percent.

Fourth-quarter performance

Quarterly data showed that real GDP grew 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier. Seasonally adjusted GDP rose 1.4 percent compared with the third quarter of 2025.

During the fourth quarter, oil activities grew 10.8 percent year-on-year and 1.8 percent quarter-on-quarter. Non-oil activities expanded 4.3 percent annually and 1.7 percent quarterly. Government activities, however, declined 1.2 percent year-on-year and 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Crude oil and natural gas activities recorded the highest annual growth in the fourth quarter at 12.4 percent, followed by wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels with 5.4 percent growth.

On the expenditure side in the fourth quarter, private final consumption rose 3.6 percent year-on-year, while gross fixed capital formation declined 3.1 percent annually, though it increased 1.8 percent compared with the previous quarter.

Government final consumption spending fell 8.5 percent year-on-year and 3.2 percent quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile, exports rose 12.8 percent annually, while imports increased 1 percent year-on-year and 2.4 percent compared with the third quarter.

Business

Aramco Bolsters Global Oil Market Stability Amid Rising Regional Tensions

Aramco's oil field in the Empty Quarter, Shaybah, Saudi Arabia, January 12, 2024. (Reuters)
Aramco's oil field in the Empty Quarter, Shaybah, Saudi Arabia, January 12, 2024. (Reuters)
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Aramco Bolsters Global Oil Market Stability Amid Rising Regional Tensions

Aramco's oil field in the Empty Quarter, Shaybah, Saudi Arabia, January 12, 2024. (Reuters)
Aramco's oil field in the Empty Quarter, Shaybah, Saudi Arabia, January 12, 2024. (Reuters)

Amid growing logistical challenges facing the energy sector, operational moves by Saudi Aramco are emerging as a stabilizing factor in global oil supply. The company has offered additional crude shipments on the spot market, a step analysts see as aimed at absorbing supply shocks and ensuring the continued flow of oil through key energy corridors.

The move aligns with Saudi Arabia’s long-standing role as a leading global producer and is intended to limit price volatility and maintain balance between supply and demand at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Reuters reported that Aramco has offered more than 4 million barrels of Saudi crude through rare spot tenders, as tensions between the United States and Iran disrupt Middle Eastern exports.

Mohammad Al-Sabban, former senior adviser to the Saudi energy minister, said the current surge in oil prices does not necessarily reflect an immediate shortage of supply. Instead, it is largely driven by what energy markets call a “geopolitical risk premium.”

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Sabban said prices remaining above $100 per barrel reflect global anxiety that the conflict could expand and threaten future supply security.

He noted that higher prices, while boosting short-term revenues and fiscal surpluses for oil-exporting countries, also bring hidden costs. These include increased spending on security measures to protect oil infrastructure — costs that rise in a volatile regional environment where Gulf states face mounting security pressures.

Al-Sabban also pointed out that spot market sales are currently generating greater returns than long-term futures contracts. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict has led buyers to pay premiums for immediate deliveries, making spot transactions more attractive during the current crisis.

Strategic chokepoint

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, remains central to the crisis.

Al-Sabban warned that even a temporary closure of the waterway would inevitably reduce available supplies, potentially triggering panic in markets and forcing countries to draw from strategic reserves.

He recalled historical precedents, noting that during the Iran-Iraq war, energy markets became a hub for speculation, with negative economic consequences emerging later.

Asked whether the conflict represents a short-term economic opportunity or a broader risk for regional economies, Al-Sabban said the reality is a mix of both. High prices may offer temporary gains as long as oil remains above $100 a barrel, but a prolonged conflict could ultimately impose heavier economic burdens through rising logistical and security costs.

Flexible response

Financial and economic adviser Hussein Al-Attas said Aramco’s decision to release additional cargoes on the spot market reflects significant flexibility in managing supply and responding quickly to market shifts amid rising demand and concerns about potential shortages.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the move sends an important signal to global markets that Saudi Arabia continues to play the role of a swing producer, capable of intervening to maintain market balance and ease fears about supply security.

Al-Attas added that the recent surge in oil prices is largely tied to geopolitical tensions in a region that represents the heart of global energy supply.

While Brent crude could remain above $100 in the short term if supply concerns persist, he noted that history shows price spikes driven by political tensions are often temporary unless they lead to a prolonged disruption in supply.

Higher oil prices naturally increase revenues for exporting countries, potentially strengthening fiscal balances and enabling governments to finance spending and development projects, Al-Attas remarked.

Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, may therefore benefit financially in the short term.

However, he cautioned that such gains are usually temporary rather than structural. Prolonged high energy prices can slow global economic growth by fueling inflation, which may eventually reduce demand for oil. As a result, the current price surge may represent a temporary financial opportunity rather than a lasting shift in oil revenues.

Ultimately, Al-Attas said the crisis carries two opposing dynamics: Gulf countries may benefit financially in the short term, but any wider regional conflict could pose greater risks to economic and commercial stability.

For that reason, he added, the region’s strategic interest ultimately lies in stable energy markets and uninterrupted oil flows, which are essential for sustaining global demand and supporting long-term economic growth.