IMF Warns: MENA Region Faces 4 Challenges

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
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IMF Warns: MENA Region Faces 4 Challenges

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)

Growth of the real GDP in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to slow this year to 3.1 percent from 5.3 percent in the previous year, announced Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Jihad Azour.

Azour added that inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at around 15 percent this year before declining modestly in 2024.

In a videoconference attended by Asharq Al-Awsat, Azour explained that the MENA countries face four challenges this year, which are dealing with the effects of inflation, global uncertainty, international financing difficulties, and economic reform developments.

Azour explained that dealing with inflation may require increasing interest rates, which affects economic growth. At the same time, uncertainty and geopolitical tensions pervade all global horizons, and their consequences fall on everyone's shoulders.

Concerning oil-importing countries, the rise in energy prices increases the risks, especially with the increase in the cost of financing and the difficulty in obtaining it. As for the oil-exporting countries, the most critical challenge is growing and diversifying revenues.

Meanwhile, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Taiani said Thursday that his country wants the IMF to start disbursing a loan to Tunisia without conditions.

During a press conference with his Tunisian counterpart, Tajani vowed to work on Tunisia's behalf in negotiations with the IMF, repeating Italy's proposal that the loan be delivered in two tranches and not be fully dependent on all reforms being in place.

"But not utterly conditional on... the conclusion of the reform process. Start financing, encourage the reforms," he told reporters.

Last week, President Kais Saied rejected IMF "diktats", which asked Tunisia to carry out economic reforms and subsidy cuts as terms for the stalled bailout.

Saeed said he would "not hear diktats" from abroad, warning that the subsidies could lead to unrest.

European leaders feared the collapse of the Tunisian economy could increase the influx of immigrants to European shores.

Tunisia's debts amount to about 80 percent of its gross domestic product, and it reached a preliminary agreement with the Fund in mid-October for a new $1.9 billion loan to help overcome the financial crisis.

However, talks reached a dead end after Tunisia failed to implement a reform program to restructure more than 100 indebted state-owned companies and lift subsidies on some essential goods and services.



Oil Steadies as Market Awaits Fresh US Tariffs

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Steadies as Market Awaits Fresh US Tariffs

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday as traders remained cautious ahead of US tariffs due to be announced at 2000 GMT, fearing they could exacerbate a global trade war and dampen demand for crude.

Brent futures were down 7 cents, or 0.09%, at $74.42 a barrel by 0858 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 5 cents, or 0.07%, to $71.15.

The White House confirmed on Tuesday that President Donald Trump will impose new tariffs on Wednesday, though it provided no detail on the size and scope of the trade barriers, according to Reuters.

Trump's tariff policies could stoke inflation, slow economic growth and escalate trade disputes.

"Crude prices have paused last month's rally, with Brent finding some resistance above $75, with the focus for now turning from a sanctions-led reduction in supply to Trump's tariff announcement and its potential negative impact on growth and demand," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Traders will be watching for levies on crude imports, potentially driving up prices of refined products, he added.

For weeks Trump has touted April 2 as "Liberation Day", bringing new duties that could rattle the global trade system.

The White House announcement is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (2000 GMT).

"The balance of risk lies to the downside, given that weaker than expected tariff measures are unlikely to drive a significant rally in Brent, while stronger than expected measures could trigger a substantial selloff," BMI analysts said in a note.

Trump has also threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil and on Monday he ramped up sanctions on Iran as part of his administration's "maximum pressure" campaign to cut its exports.

"Markets likely to be volatile ahead of the final announcements on tariffs and the scale of them. The threat of secondary tariffs on Russian crude continues to provide some support for prices, with more downside risk at present around tariff uncertainty," said Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty.

US oil and fuel inventories painted a mixed picture of supply and demand in the world's biggest producer and consumer.

US crude oil inventories rose by 6 million barrels in the week ended March 28, according to sources citing the American Petroleum Institute. Gasoline inventories, however, fell by 1.6 million barrels and distillate stocks were down by 11,000 barrels, the sources said.

Official US crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday.