IMF Warns: MENA Region Faces 4 Challenges

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
TT
20

IMF Warns: MENA Region Faces 4 Challenges

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, Thursday, April 13, 2023. (AP)

Growth of the real GDP in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to slow this year to 3.1 percent from 5.3 percent in the previous year, announced Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Jihad Azour.

Azour added that inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at around 15 percent this year before declining modestly in 2024.

In a videoconference attended by Asharq Al-Awsat, Azour explained that the MENA countries face four challenges this year, which are dealing with the effects of inflation, global uncertainty, international financing difficulties, and economic reform developments.

Azour explained that dealing with inflation may require increasing interest rates, which affects economic growth. At the same time, uncertainty and geopolitical tensions pervade all global horizons, and their consequences fall on everyone's shoulders.

Concerning oil-importing countries, the rise in energy prices increases the risks, especially with the increase in the cost of financing and the difficulty in obtaining it. As for the oil-exporting countries, the most critical challenge is growing and diversifying revenues.

Meanwhile, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Taiani said Thursday that his country wants the IMF to start disbursing a loan to Tunisia without conditions.

During a press conference with his Tunisian counterpart, Tajani vowed to work on Tunisia's behalf in negotiations with the IMF, repeating Italy's proposal that the loan be delivered in two tranches and not be fully dependent on all reforms being in place.

"But not utterly conditional on... the conclusion of the reform process. Start financing, encourage the reforms," he told reporters.

Last week, President Kais Saied rejected IMF "diktats", which asked Tunisia to carry out economic reforms and subsidy cuts as terms for the stalled bailout.

Saeed said he would "not hear diktats" from abroad, warning that the subsidies could lead to unrest.

European leaders feared the collapse of the Tunisian economy could increase the influx of immigrants to European shores.

Tunisia's debts amount to about 80 percent of its gross domestic product, and it reached a preliminary agreement with the Fund in mid-October for a new $1.9 billion loan to help overcome the financial crisis.

However, talks reached a dead end after Tunisia failed to implement a reform program to restructure more than 100 indebted state-owned companies and lift subsidies on some essential goods and services.



Saudi Energy Minister: Two Billion People Worldwide Suffer from Energy Shortages

Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman (OPEC website) 
Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman (OPEC website) 
TT
20

Saudi Energy Minister: Two Billion People Worldwide Suffer from Energy Shortages

Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman (OPEC website) 
Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman (OPEC website) 

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has warned that the global energy transition must not come at the expense of economic growth and the cost of living. He highlighted that nearly two billion people around the world are currently facing energy shortages.

Speaking at the opening session of the 9th OPEC International Seminar in Vienna, the minister stressed that the path toward energy transition must be realistic and practical. He emphasized that this shift should not be viewed as a threat to oil producers, but rather as an opportunity for technological innovation.

Despite the growing use of renewable, nuclear, and hydrogen energy sources, Prince Abdulaziz maintained that oil and gas will remain essential and irreplaceable components of the global energy mix. He welcomed the fact that an increasing number of countries are adopting a more pragmatic view of the transition.

Also speaking at the seminar, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said on Wednesday that oil markets have been able to absorb OPEC+ production increases without a rise in inventories, indicating that global demand still requires more crude.

Al Mazrouei explained that the group is not concerned about oversupply and has seen no significant stockpile build-up, even after recent production hikes.

OPEC+, which supplies around half of the world’s oil, has been cutting production for several years to support market stability. However, the group recently began easing these cuts in response to rising global demand, particularly during the summer.

OPEC+ began unwinding its 2.17 million barrel-per-day production cut in April, increasing output by 138,000 barrels per day. That was followed by monthly hikes of 411,000 barrels per day in May, June, and July. On Saturday, the group approved a further increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August.

Al Mazrouei pointed out that the absence of a significant buildup in inventories despite these steady increases suggests that the market needed those barrels.

He added that stability - not just price - should be the focus, stressing that short-term thinking based solely on price is insufficient. He noted that oil prices must remain attractive enough to draw in new investments, warning that countries with large oil reserves still are not investing at the necessary levels.