India, Russia Talk Free Trade Deal in Step-up of Relations

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Industry and Trade of Russian Federation Denis Valentinovich Manturov attends an India-Russia Business Dialogue in New Delhi, India 17 April 2023. (EPA)
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Industry and Trade of Russian Federation Denis Valentinovich Manturov attends an India-Russia Business Dialogue in New Delhi, India 17 April 2023. (EPA)
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India, Russia Talk Free Trade Deal in Step-up of Relations

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Industry and Trade of Russian Federation Denis Valentinovich Manturov attends an India-Russia Business Dialogue in New Delhi, India 17 April 2023. (EPA)
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Industry and Trade of Russian Federation Denis Valentinovich Manturov attends an India-Russia Business Dialogue in New Delhi, India 17 April 2023. (EPA)

India and Russia are discussing a free trade agreement (FTA), the Russian trade minister said on Monday, an announcement that could deepen bilateral commercial ties that have flourished since war broke out in Ukraine.

The FTA talks mark a step-up in economic relations between the two countries despite calls from Western countries for India to gradually distance itself from its dominant weapons supplier, Russia, over its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

India's imports from Russia more than quadrupled to $46.33 billion over the last fiscal year, mainly through oil.

"We pay special attention to the issues of mutual access of production to the markets of our countries," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, who is also the trade minister, told an event in New Delhi.

"Together with the Eurasian Economic Commission, we are looking forward to intensifying negotiations on a free trade agreement with India."

Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said the COVID pandemic had disrupted discussions on an FTA between India and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, and that he hoped "our colleagues will pick up on this ... because we do believe it will make a real difference to our trade relationship".

Manturov said road construction material and equipment and chemicals and pharmaceutical products were in demand in Russia and "I am sure that this will create opportunities for Indian companies to increase their supplies to Russia".

The announcement came at a time when New Delhi is also engaged in FTA discussions with Britain, the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Reuters reported in November that Russia was potentially seeking to import more than 500 products from India for key sectors including cars, aircraft and trains, given that Western sanctions imposed over Russia's military action in Ukraine have undermined its ability to keep core industries operating.

Manturov also said Russia would consider widening the use of "national currencies and currencies of friendly countries". India has been keen on increasing the use of its rupee currency for trade with Russia.

Russia describes its campaign in Ukraine as a "special military operation" against security threats, while pro-Western Ukraine calls it an unprovoked war of conquest.

New Delhi has not explicitly criticized the Russian invasion and has called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue. Russian-Indian bilateral trade has jumped as the war has progressed.

Russia, traditionally India's top source of military hardware, displaced Iraq last month to become India's top supplier of crude oil. Before the war that began in February last year, India bought very little oil from Russia.

Russia's efforts to improve trade with India form part of its strategy to help evade the impact of Western sanctions by boosting commerce with Asian giants including China.

Moscow is also trying to increase or maintain cooperation with other South Asian countries, most recently agreeing to settle payments in yuan for building a nuclear power plant in Bangladesh and discussing discounted oil exports to Pakistan.

Jaishankar said Indian business could benefit from Russian technology and that New Delhi was working to iron out payments, certification and logistics issues.



Saudi Arabia Raises $12 Billion in International Bonds Amid Strong Demand

Skyscrapers are seen in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters).
Skyscrapers are seen in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters).
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Saudi Arabia Raises $12 Billion in International Bonds Amid Strong Demand

Skyscrapers are seen in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters).
Skyscrapers are seen in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters).

Saudi Arabia has raised $12 billion from global debt markets in its first international bond issuance of the year, attracting bids worth nearly $37 billion. This demonstrates strong investor appetite for Saudi debt instruments.

The issuance comes just two days after the approval of the 2025 annual borrowing plan by Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan. The plan estimates financing needs for the fiscal year at SAR 139 billion ($37 billion). The funds will be used to cover the projected SAR 101 billion ($26.8 billion) budget deficit for 2025, as well as repay SAR 38 billion ($10 billion) in principal debt obligations due this year.

The National Debt Management Center (NDMC) announced on Tuesday that the issuance includes three tranches: $5 billion in three-year bonds, $3 billion in six-year bonds, and $4 billion in ten-year bonds. Total demand for the bonds reached $37 billion, exceeding the issuance size by three times and reflecting robust investor interest.

The NDMC emphasized that this issuance aligns with its strategy to broaden the investor base and efficiently meet Saudi Arabia’s financing needs in global debt markets.

According to IFR, a fixed-income news service, the initial price guidance for the three-year bonds was set at 120 basis points above US Treasury yields. The six-year and ten-year bonds were priced at 130 and 140 basis points above the same benchmark, respectively.

Strong demand allowed Saudi Arabia to lower yields on the shorter-term bonds, further demonstrating investor confidence. Economists noted that the pricing above US Treasuries is attractive in the current market, showcasing trust in Saudi Arabia’s economic stability and financial strategies.

International confidence

Economic experts view this successful bond issuance as a testament to international confidence in Saudi Arabia’s robust economy and financial reforms. Dr. Mohammed Al-Qahtani, an economics professor at King Faisal University, said the move underscores Saudi Arabia’s commitment to diversifying financing tools both domestically and internationally. He added that the funds would support Vision 2030 projects, reduce pressure on domestic resources, and attract strong international investor interest.

The issuance strengthens Saudi Arabia’s ability to meet financial needs, expand its investor base, and establish a global financing network, he said, noting that it also facilitates entry into new markets, enabling the Kingdom to accelerate infrastructure projects and capital expenditures.

Dr. Ihsan Buhulaiga, founder of Joatha Business Development Consultants, described the 2025 budget as expansionary, aimed at meeting the financing needs of economic diversification programs. He stressed that the budget deficit is an “optional” one, reflecting a deliberate choice to prioritize Vision 2030 initiatives over immediate fiscal balance.

Buhulaiga explained that the Kingdom’s approach balances two options: limiting spending to available revenues, which would avoid deficits but delay Vision 2030 initiatives, or borrowing strategically to fund Vision 2030 goals. He said that the annual budget is just a component of the larger vision, which requires sustained funding until 2030.

He continued that Saudi Arabia’s fiscal space and creditworthiness allow it to borrow internationally at competitive rates, explaining that this flexibility ensures financial sustainability without compromising stability, even during challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Saudi Arabia’s debt portfolio remains balanced, with two-thirds of its debt domestic and one-third external. As of Q3 2024, public debt stood at approximately SAR 1.2 trillion, below the 30% GDP ceiling. According to the Ministry of Finance, the budget deficit is expected to persist through 2027 but remain below 3% of GDP.

Buhulaiga highlighted the importance of capital expenditure, which reached SAR 186 billion in 2023 and is projected to rise to SAR 198 billion in 2024, a 6.5% increase.

He emphasized the government’s pivotal role in economic diversification, supported by investments from the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the National Development Fund, and its subsidiaries, including the Infrastructure Fund.

The PIF recently announced a $7 billion Murabaha credit facility, facilitated by Citigroup, Goldman Sachs International, and JPMorgan. Meanwhile, the NDMC arranged a $2.5 billion revolving credit facility earlier in January, compliant with Islamic principles, to address budgetary needs.

In November, Moody’s upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to Aa3, aligning with Fitch’s A+ rating, both with a stable outlook. S&P Global assigns the Kingdom an AA-1 rating with a positive outlook, reflecting a high ability to meet financial obligations with low credit risk.

The IMF estimates Saudi Arabia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio at 26.2% in 2024, describing it as low and sustainable. This is projected to rise to 35% by 2029 as foreign borrowing continues to play a key role in financing deficits.