India, Russia Talk Free Trade Deal in Step-up of Relations

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Industry and Trade of Russian Federation Denis Valentinovich Manturov attends an India-Russia Business Dialogue in New Delhi, India 17 April 2023. (EPA)
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Industry and Trade of Russian Federation Denis Valentinovich Manturov attends an India-Russia Business Dialogue in New Delhi, India 17 April 2023. (EPA)
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India, Russia Talk Free Trade Deal in Step-up of Relations

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Industry and Trade of Russian Federation Denis Valentinovich Manturov attends an India-Russia Business Dialogue in New Delhi, India 17 April 2023. (EPA)
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Industry and Trade of Russian Federation Denis Valentinovich Manturov attends an India-Russia Business Dialogue in New Delhi, India 17 April 2023. (EPA)

India and Russia are discussing a free trade agreement (FTA), the Russian trade minister said on Monday, an announcement that could deepen bilateral commercial ties that have flourished since war broke out in Ukraine.

The FTA talks mark a step-up in economic relations between the two countries despite calls from Western countries for India to gradually distance itself from its dominant weapons supplier, Russia, over its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

India's imports from Russia more than quadrupled to $46.33 billion over the last fiscal year, mainly through oil.

"We pay special attention to the issues of mutual access of production to the markets of our countries," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, who is also the trade minister, told an event in New Delhi.

"Together with the Eurasian Economic Commission, we are looking forward to intensifying negotiations on a free trade agreement with India."

Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said the COVID pandemic had disrupted discussions on an FTA between India and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, and that he hoped "our colleagues will pick up on this ... because we do believe it will make a real difference to our trade relationship".

Manturov said road construction material and equipment and chemicals and pharmaceutical products were in demand in Russia and "I am sure that this will create opportunities for Indian companies to increase their supplies to Russia".

The announcement came at a time when New Delhi is also engaged in FTA discussions with Britain, the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Reuters reported in November that Russia was potentially seeking to import more than 500 products from India for key sectors including cars, aircraft and trains, given that Western sanctions imposed over Russia's military action in Ukraine have undermined its ability to keep core industries operating.

Manturov also said Russia would consider widening the use of "national currencies and currencies of friendly countries". India has been keen on increasing the use of its rupee currency for trade with Russia.

Russia describes its campaign in Ukraine as a "special military operation" against security threats, while pro-Western Ukraine calls it an unprovoked war of conquest.

New Delhi has not explicitly criticized the Russian invasion and has called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue. Russian-Indian bilateral trade has jumped as the war has progressed.

Russia, traditionally India's top source of military hardware, displaced Iraq last month to become India's top supplier of crude oil. Before the war that began in February last year, India bought very little oil from Russia.

Russia's efforts to improve trade with India form part of its strategy to help evade the impact of Western sanctions by boosting commerce with Asian giants including China.

Moscow is also trying to increase or maintain cooperation with other South Asian countries, most recently agreeing to settle payments in yuan for building a nuclear power plant in Bangladesh and discussing discounted oil exports to Pakistan.

Jaishankar said Indian business could benefit from Russian technology and that New Delhi was working to iron out payments, certification and logistics issues.



Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo

The US dollar charged ahead on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields, putting the yen, sterling and euro under pressure near multi-month lows amid the shifting threat of tariffs.

The focus for markets in 2025 has been on US President-elect Donald Trump's agenda as he steps back into the White House on Jan. 20, with analysts expecting his policies to both bolster growth and add to price pressures, according to Reuters.

CNN on Wednesday reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a series of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries. On Monday, the Washington Post said Trump was looking at more nuanced tariffs, which he later denied.

Concerns that policies introduced by the Trump administration could reignite inflation has led bond yields higher, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note hitting 4.73% on Wednesday, its highest since April 25. It was at 4.6709% on Thursday.

"Trump's shifting narrative on tariffs has undoubtedly had an effect on USD. It seems this capriciousness is something markets will have to adapt to over the coming four years," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets.

The bond market selloff has left the dollar standing tall and casting a shadow on the currency market.

Among the most affected was the pound, which was headed for its biggest three-day drop in nearly two years.

Sterling slid to $1.2239 on Thursday, its weakest since November 2023, even as British government bond yields hit multi-year highs.

Ordinarily, higher gilt yields would support the pound, but not in this case.

The sell-off in UK government bond markets resumed on Thursday, with 10-year and 30-year gilt yields jumping again in early trading, as confidence in Britain's fiscal outlook deteriorates.

"Such a simultaneous sell-off in currency and bonds is rather unusual for a G10 country," said Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank.

"It seems to be the culmination of a development that began several months ago. The new Labour government's approval ratings are at record lows just a few months after the election, and business and consumer sentiment is severely depressed."

Sterling was last down about 0.69% at $1.2282.

The euro also eased, albeit less than the pound, to $1.0302, lurking close to the two-year low it hit last week as investors remain worried the single currency may fall to the key $1 mark this year due to tariff uncertainties.

The yen hovered near the key 160 per dollar mark that led to Tokyo intervening in the market last July, after it touched a near six-month low of 158.55 on Wednesday.

Though it strengthened a bit on the day and was last at 158.15 per dollar. That all left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, up 0.15% and at 109.18, just shy of the two-year high it touched last week.

Also in the mix were the Federal Reserve minutes of its December meeting, released on Wednesday, which showed the central bank flagged new inflation concerns and officials saw a rising risk the incoming administration's plans may slow economic growth and raise unemployment.

With US markets closed on Thursday, the spotlight will be on Friday's payrolls report as investors parse through data to gauge when the Fed will next cut rates.