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Drought Hits 60% of Tunisia’s Grains

Sheep graze in one of the wheat fields in northern Tunisia amidst a wave of drought threatening this year's food security (AFP)
Sheep graze in one of the wheat fields in northern Tunisia amidst a wave of drought threatening this year's food security (AFP)
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Drought Hits 60% of Tunisia’s Grains

Sheep graze in one of the wheat fields in northern Tunisia amidst a wave of drought threatening this year's food security (AFP)
Sheep graze in one of the wheat fields in northern Tunisia amidst a wave of drought threatening this year's food security (AFP)

Agricultural experts in Tunisia have predicted that the country’s upcoming crop yield is anticipated to be a maximum of 2.5 million quintals of grain, a significant drop from the 7.4 million quintals harvested during the previous agricultural season.

This outcome is one of the poorest in the last decade, as the production rate has typically ranged between 12 to 16 million quintals of grain per season.

Sources have confirmed that the damage will be significant, with 60% of agricultural land allocated for various types of grain cultivation being affected to varying degrees. Tunisian farmers are in urgent need of government support to combat the years-long wave of drought currently affecting the country.

Mohamed Rajayebia, a member of the executive bureau of the Tunisian Union of Agriculture and Fisheries, confirmed that the decline in grain production comes against the backdrop of continuing temperature rises witnessed by Tunisia during the last days of March.

According to Rajayebia, the main grain-producing regions in Tunisia, including the provinces of Béja, Jendouba, Bizerte, and the Sahel region of Kairouan, have been negatively affected by the lack of rainfall and the recent rise in temperature.

This may increase the possibility of higher imports to meet local demand, even though there are difficulties in obtaining grains and their derivatives from the Ukrainian market due to the ongoing war.

Observers of Tunisia's current farming season results have warned that the grain harvest this season will barely be enough to provide seeds for the 2023-2024 farming season.

They estimate that Tunisia needs two million quintals of seeds for the next season, as around 95% of the country’s major crops depend on rainfall.

Government and private organizations are working on finding solutions to this problem, which threatens food security and is causing a continuing decrease in grain production from one season to another.

According to agricultural expert Hamadi Bou Bakri, the Tunisian state imports between 65% and 70% of its local grain needs every year, relying on seasonal national production between 30% and 50%.

“This season it will be very difficult to reach these percentages, considering that we may only be able to collect 2.5 million quintals of grains,” said Bakri.

Tunisia’s annual grain needs are estimated to be at least 32 million quintals, with about half typically met by domestic production.

However, this season’s need for imports is expected to be “unprecedented,” resulting in additional expenses in hard currency for the state treasury.

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Lebanese Army Awaits Political Decision to Implement UNSCR 1701

Soldiers from the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol near the southern village of Marjayoun (AFP).
Soldiers from the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol near the southern village of Marjayoun (AFP).
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Lebanese Army Awaits Political Decision to Implement UNSCR 1701

Soldiers from the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol near the southern village of Marjayoun (AFP).
Soldiers from the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol near the southern village of Marjayoun (AFP).

Discussions are underway on the role of the Lebanese army in maintaining security in South Lebanon amid rising optimism about a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701

As part of these preparations, the Lebanese government has begun strengthening the army by recruiting 1,500 new soldiers out of the 6,000 needed, aligning with the outcomes of the Paris Conference held on October 23, which allocated 200 million euros to support the military institution, from a broader package intended to help the Lebanese people during the Israel-Hezbollah war.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, a security official highlighted that the army currently has 4,500 personnel stationed south of the Litani River but requires additional manpower.

The unidentified official noted, however, that any effective deployment would require a political decision and government support. “The Lebanese military will implement Resolution 1701 as is, with no intention of clashing with any party. However, if Israel violates Lebanese sovereignty, the army is fully prepared to respond,” he said.

Although Hezbollah opposes withdrawing from south of the Litani and handing over border security duties to the Lebanese military and UNIFIL, claiming the army lacks the capabilities to defend against Israeli aggression, the security source clarified that the military has been authorized to repel any attacks but will avoid initiating conflict. The army’s expanded deployment depends on a political decision, which, once made, will see the military act without hesitation to uphold Lebanese sovereignty.

While military preparedness is essential, Brigadier General Wehbeh Qatisha argues that Lebanon’s security requires more than just troops or advanced weaponry at the border. The presence of the Lebanese military as a representative of the Lebanese state is also a significant deterrent. He pointed out that prior to 1970, Israel refrained from attacking Lebanon, despite a much smaller army. However, he cautioned that even with a substantial deployment today, the persistence of Hezbollah’s military presence would continue to undermine Lebanon’s stability and security.

Since the 1969 Cairo Agreement, which allowed the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to launch operations against Israel from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army has been restricted in its ability to enforce security along the border. After the PLO’s departure in 1982, Hezbollah took over military operations in the South. Even after the 2006 war and the adoption of Resolution 1701, which called for the Lebanese military and UNIFIL to secure the border, Hezbollah retained its armed presence and continued to conduct exercises simulating conflict with Israel. The latter violated the international resolution thousands of times, until the last war broke out against the background of turning southern Lebanon into a front supporting Gaza.

Qatisha emphasized that the path to stability lies in comprehensive implementation of international resolutions, particularly 1701 and 1559, and restricting arms to the Lebanese army. He argued that achieving balanced deterrence requires not only military force but also a commitment to diplomacy and international support.