Sudan Conflict Deals New Blow to Stagnant Economy

Sudanese residents shop in a bazaar in Khartoum, Sudan, May 4, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
Sudanese residents shop in a bazaar in Khartoum, Sudan, May 4, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
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Sudan Conflict Deals New Blow to Stagnant Economy

Sudanese residents shop in a bazaar in Khartoum, Sudan, May 4, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
Sudanese residents shop in a bazaar in Khartoum, Sudan, May 4, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo

The conflict shaking Sudan has dealt a crippling blow to the heart of the country's economy in the capital Khartoum, as well as disrupting internal trade routes, threatening imports and triggering a cash crunch.

Across swathes of the capital factories, banks, shops and markets have been looted or damaged, power and water supplies have been failing, and residents have reported steep price rises and shortages of basic goods.

Even before the fighting between military factions broke out on April 15 Sudan's economy had been in deep stagnation following a crisis stretching back to the last years of Omar al-Bashir's rule and turmoil after his overthrow in 2019, Reuters said.

Tens of thousands have now fled the violence in Khartoum and its sister cities of Bahri and Omdurman, while millions more have sheltered at home as shelling and air strikes rattle across neighborhoods.

Transport of goods and people has slowed as troops and sometimes gangs roam the streets. Telecom networks have become unreliable and some say they have begun rationing food and water.

"We are afraid, and we are suffering from high prices, shortages, and lack of salaries. This is a war on the citizen," said Ismail Elhassan, an employee at one Khartoum business.

Sudan, already an important exporter of gum arabic, sesame, peanuts, and livestock, has the potential to be a major agricultural and livestock exporter and logistics hub.

But the economy has been held back by decades of sanctions and international isolation, as well as deep corruption. Most Sudanese have struggled with years of rampant inflation, sharp currency devaluations and sliding living standards. About a third of the 46 million population depends on humanitarian aid.

NO DRIVERS

The conflict has hampered trade flows in and out of the East African nation, since banking and customs procedures are centralized in Khartoum. While the country's main port on the Red Sea is operating, at least one big shipping company, Maersk, says it has stopped taking bookings until further notice.

Imports of wheat, key to Sudan's food security, are becoming more difficult, said one Khartoum-based trader. Imports of white goods such as refrigerators across the land border with Egypt, where tens of thousands of Sudanese have fled northwards, have also slowed, said Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce secretary-general Alaa Ezz.

Michel Sidhom, a supply chain manager at a trading company operating in Egypt and Sudan, said its business in Sudan had "completely stopped" as exports of Egyptian fertilizers and flour, typically about 10,000 tons per month each, were halted.

Egypt, Sudan's second biggest destination for livestock, a key export, said it is looking to diversify its sources as a result of the unrest.

Sidhom says his company's traders in Sudan have left Khartoum, and no drivers are willing to risk transporting their goods to the capital city.

"They shut down and left Khartoum until further notice. Whoever stays in Khartoum stays in a battlefield," he said.

SCARCITY, HIGH PRICES

Shortages of items such as flour and vegetables have been reported in Khartoum along with price hikes. Long queues form in front of bakeries and supermarkets in the capital.

The price of one kilogram of lamb has jumped nearly 30% to 4,500 pounds ($7.52), according to a Reuters reporter, while the price of a kilogram of tomatoes doubled to 1,000 pounds ($1.67).

A supermarket owner in Omdurman blamed the inflation on soaring black market fuel prices. A gallon of scarce fuel can now cost as much as 40,000 pounds ($67), up from 2,000 pounds ($3.34).

Even in places where fighting has abated demand is low, said one Omdurman butcher. "Everyone's left," he said.

Sudan's pound has lost about 600% against the dollar since 2018, prompting many to save money in dollars.

Traders in Khartoum face a cash crunch, and people are increasingly dependent on an electronic wallet app known as Bankak, which often suffers outages, to pay bills.

The black market has become distorted, as relatives abroad seek to sell dollars for Bankak transfers, while those in the country seek dollars for safe keeping.

Currency traders offer dollars at rates as high as 700 pounds ($1.17), while buying at as little as 300 pounds ($0.5014), with prices varying widely as transport and communication becomes more difficult.

Sudan's central bank on Sunday said banks outside the capital were carrying out withdrawal and deposit transactions. Within Khartoum, the army and RSF have accused each other of looting banks. The head of one Khartoum bank said he was trying to temporarily move the bank's headquarters outside the capital.

Another executive said that in years of economic reforms, coups, and protests, "this is the biggest challenge to face the banking system, and threatens an almost complete shutdown," he said.

In the city of Atbara, north-east of Khartoum, crowds of people were seen outside of banks, some of which had imposed withdrawal limits.

"My cash has run out because I haven't received my salary and the banking apps don't work," said Elhassan, speaking from Khartoum.



Dubai Forum Highlights 7 Key Developments the World Will Witness in the Future

Participants attend the opening session of the Dubai Future Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Participants attend the opening session of the Dubai Future Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Dubai Forum Highlights 7 Key Developments the World Will Witness in the Future

Participants attend the opening session of the Dubai Future Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Participants attend the opening session of the Dubai Future Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Participants at the Dubai Future Forum 2024 identified seven transformative developments that will reshape humanity’s future: the shift in evaluating growth, the dominance of solar energy, a return to the moon, the creation of a genomic bank, brain-computer implants for healthy individuals, the rise of alternative education, and AI’s integration into corporate boardrooms.

Khalfan Belhoul, CEO of the Dubai Future Foundation, emphasized the need to plan for the future and seize emerging opportunities.

In his keynote, he called for leveraging innovation, policy, and technology to enhance quality of life and foster global collaboration, reflecting the vision of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai.

Belhoul questioned the continued reliance on GDP as a measure of national progress, noting its inability to account for well-being and environmental impact. He welcomed the UN’s ongoing revision of its framework to incorporate these dimensions, signaling a major shift in evaluating growth.

On renewable energy, Belhoul pointed to solar power’s vast potential, stressing that global solar capacity, which stood at 220 gigawatts in 2022, is expected to double by 2025. In this context, he underlined the importance of natural resources in advancing sustainability and energy security.

Humanity is also set to return to the moon, with NASA planning a lunar mission after a 50-year hiatus. Belhoul expressed optimism about the new knowledge this mission could yield given recent technological advancements.

Moreover, the establishment of a genomic bank with over one million samples is expected next year, paving the way for personalized healthcare and disease prevention. While he hailed this as a scientific milestone, Belhoul urged caution over its ethical aspects.

In education, he stressed that a shift toward personalized learning is evident, with five million students projected to study outside traditional schools by next year. This reflects the growing role of technology in tailoring education to individual needs, he said.

Belhoul also discussed brain-computer implants, predicting that the first implant in a healthy person could happen within a year, raising profound questions about humanity’s relationship with technology. Additionally, he foresaw the appointment of the first AI-powered board member at a Fortune 500 company, sparking debates about AI’s role in leadership.

Belhoul urged policymakers and innovators to address these trends responsibly to ensure that technological advances align with human values and boost global well-being.