Several Scenarios for Safe Transition of Palestinian Presidency after Abbas

 Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas gestures as he delivers a speech in the West Bank city of Bethlehem. Reuters
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas gestures as he delivers a speech in the West Bank city of Bethlehem. Reuters
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Several Scenarios for Safe Transition of Palestinian Presidency after Abbas

 Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas gestures as he delivers a speech in the West Bank city of Bethlehem. Reuters
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas gestures as he delivers a speech in the West Bank city of Bethlehem. Reuters

Ramallah- Hamas movement has ignited the battle over the early succession of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas by announcing that the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council would assume his position if Abbas could not carry out his duties.

"The Palestinian basic law stipulates that if the president's health deteriorates, if he dies or can not carry out his job, then the president of the Legislative Council (parliament) should assume his position for 60 days in preparation for holding elections," said Ahmad Bahar, a leader in the Islamic Movement that governs Gaza Strip.

Bahar recalled a similar incident in 2004, when former President Yasser Arafat passed away and was replaced by Speaker of the Parliament - back then Rouhi Fattouh. He stressed that the National Council has nothing to do with this matter.

Bahar's statements came amid rising fears of a vacuum in the Palestinian political system after Abbas, especially following a slight setback in his health that demanded him to do some medical tests in Ramallah.

While Hamas says that Speaker of the Legislative Council Aziz Duwaik, pro-Hamas, will succeed Abbas, Fatah is preparing for a totally different plan and is discussing different scenarios, but it will first elect a new executive committee for the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

The National Council will convene a meeting at any time before the end of the year to elect a new Executive Committee for the PLO. Fatah officials say the election of a new committee comes within the framework of renewing Palestinian legitimacy. Yet, observers say that it also paves the way for a safe and smooth transition of power.

They are not only Palestinian concerns but also Arab as well as Israeli. The Israeli security services have put forward several post-Abbas scenarios.

It is believed that Fatah movement will elect one of its members in the Central Committee for membership of the Executive Committee of the PLO, and this will be, according to the Fathawi Khales’s concept, the closest person nominated to succeed Abbas.

Notably, there is still no vice president for Abbas since the basic constitution of the Palestinian Authority (PA) does not include the position of vice president, but there is a deputy to the president of Fatah movement, who is Mahmoud al-Aloul, the former governor of Nablus.

The other scenario might lead to reconciliation with Hamas and carrying out new public elections.

With this legal dispute and with the absence of a vice president, fears of a vacuum in the Palestinian political system are growing.

These concerns are not only limited to Palestinians but also to Arabs and Israelis as the Israeli security services put several scenarios for the post-Abbas era.



Armenian Prime Minister Meets Erdogan in Rare Visit to Türkiye Aimed at Mending Ties

A handout photo made available by the Turkish Presidential Press Office shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (C-R) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (C-L) posing before their meeting in Istanbul, Türkiye, 20 June 2025. (EPA/ Turkish Presidential Press Office)
A handout photo made available by the Turkish Presidential Press Office shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (C-R) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (C-L) posing before their meeting in Istanbul, Türkiye, 20 June 2025. (EPA/ Turkish Presidential Press Office)
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Armenian Prime Minister Meets Erdogan in Rare Visit to Türkiye Aimed at Mending Ties

A handout photo made available by the Turkish Presidential Press Office shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (C-R) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (C-L) posing before their meeting in Istanbul, Türkiye, 20 June 2025. (EPA/ Turkish Presidential Press Office)
A handout photo made available by the Turkish Presidential Press Office shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (C-R) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (C-L) posing before their meeting in Istanbul, Türkiye, 20 June 2025. (EPA/ Turkish Presidential Press Office)

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday as part of the two countries' efforts to normalize ties that were strained over historic disputes and Türkiye’s alliance with Azerbaijan.

The talks between the two countries, which have no formal diplomatic ties, were expected to center on the possible reopening of their joint border as well as the war between Israel and Iran.

Türkiye, a close ally of Azerbaijan, shut down its border with Armenia in 1993 in a show of solidarity with Baku, which was locked in a conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

In 2020, Türkiye strongly backed Azerbaijan in the six-week conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, which ended with a Russia-brokered peace deal that saw Azerbaijan gain control of a significant part of the region.

Türkiye and Armenia also have a more than century-old dispute over the deaths of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians in massacres, deportations and forced marches that began in 1915 in Ottoman Türkiye.

Historians widely view the event as genocide. Türkiye vehemently rejects the label, conceding that many died in that era but insisting that the death toll is inflated and the deaths resulted from civil unrest.

The rare visit by an Armenian leader comes after Ankara and Yerevan agreed in 2021 to launch efforts toward normalizing ties and appointed special representatives to lead talks.

Pashinyan previously visited Türkiye in 2023 when he attended a presidential inauguration ceremony following an election victory by Erdogan. The two have also held talks on the sideline of a meeting in Prague in 2022.

It is Ankara and Yerevan’s second attempt at reconciliation. Türkiye and Armenia reached an agreement in 2009 to establish formal relations and to open their border, but the deal was never ratified because of strong opposition from Azerbaijan.