Several Scenarios for Safe Transition of Palestinian Presidency after Abbas

 Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas gestures as he delivers a speech in the West Bank city of Bethlehem. Reuters
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas gestures as he delivers a speech in the West Bank city of Bethlehem. Reuters
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Several Scenarios for Safe Transition of Palestinian Presidency after Abbas

 Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas gestures as he delivers a speech in the West Bank city of Bethlehem. Reuters
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas gestures as he delivers a speech in the West Bank city of Bethlehem. Reuters

Ramallah- Hamas movement has ignited the battle over the early succession of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas by announcing that the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council would assume his position if Abbas could not carry out his duties.

"The Palestinian basic law stipulates that if the president's health deteriorates, if he dies or can not carry out his job, then the president of the Legislative Council (parliament) should assume his position for 60 days in preparation for holding elections," said Ahmad Bahar, a leader in the Islamic Movement that governs Gaza Strip.

Bahar recalled a similar incident in 2004, when former President Yasser Arafat passed away and was replaced by Speaker of the Parliament - back then Rouhi Fattouh. He stressed that the National Council has nothing to do with this matter.

Bahar's statements came amid rising fears of a vacuum in the Palestinian political system after Abbas, especially following a slight setback in his health that demanded him to do some medical tests in Ramallah.

While Hamas says that Speaker of the Legislative Council Aziz Duwaik, pro-Hamas, will succeed Abbas, Fatah is preparing for a totally different plan and is discussing different scenarios, but it will first elect a new executive committee for the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

The National Council will convene a meeting at any time before the end of the year to elect a new Executive Committee for the PLO. Fatah officials say the election of a new committee comes within the framework of renewing Palestinian legitimacy. Yet, observers say that it also paves the way for a safe and smooth transition of power.

They are not only Palestinian concerns but also Arab as well as Israeli. The Israeli security services have put forward several post-Abbas scenarios.

It is believed that Fatah movement will elect one of its members in the Central Committee for membership of the Executive Committee of the PLO, and this will be, according to the Fathawi Khales’s concept, the closest person nominated to succeed Abbas.

Notably, there is still no vice president for Abbas since the basic constitution of the Palestinian Authority (PA) does not include the position of vice president, but there is a deputy to the president of Fatah movement, who is Mahmoud al-Aloul, the former governor of Nablus.

The other scenario might lead to reconciliation with Hamas and carrying out new public elections.

With this legal dispute and with the absence of a vice president, fears of a vacuum in the Palestinian political system are growing.

These concerns are not only limited to Palestinians but also to Arabs and Israelis as the Israeli security services put several scenarios for the post-Abbas era.



Kurdistan Region Blames ‘Terrorist Group’ for Peshmerga Attack

Peshmerga forces during a celebration in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, in 2023 (AFP)
Peshmerga forces during a celebration in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, in 2023 (AFP)
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Kurdistan Region Blames ‘Terrorist Group’ for Peshmerga Attack

Peshmerga forces during a celebration in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, in 2023 (AFP)
Peshmerga forces during a celebration in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, in 2023 (AFP)

Five members of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces were wounded in two separate drone attacks targeting military positions in northern Iraq’s Duhok province, the Kurdistan Region Security Council said on Tuesday.

The council said the strikes occurred on Monday and Tuesday in the town of Amadiya, where surveillance posts were being set up. The attacks were carried out using drones, it added.

Kurdish intelligence sources suspect a splinter faction of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) was behind the strikes, suggesting the group aimed to disrupt ongoing peace efforts in both Türkiye and Syria.

“These are terrorist attacks,” the Security Council said in a statement, vowing to take “all necessary measures” against groups that threaten the region’s security and stability.

The PKK, which is considered a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the United States, and the European Union, has been engaged in a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state and maintains bases in northern Iraq.

The Kurdistan Region Security Council said Tuesday that the recent drone attacks on Peshmerga forces may have been intended to derail ongoing peace efforts among Kurdish groups across the region, as well as political developments within the Kurdistan Regional Government.

The council suggested the twin strikes in Duhok province were connected to peace negotiations between Türkiye and the PKK, as well as intra-Kurdish talks in northeast Syria, where Kurdish factions are seeking unity under what is known as the “Kurdish Unity Conference.”

It also linked the attacks to the final stages of forming the Kurdistan Region’s new government, warning that “certain groups and factions are working to obstruct peace and stability in the region.”

The comments came days after Syrian Kurdish factions held what was described as a “historic conference” in the northeastern city of Qamishli, calling for a decentralized democratic state.

The event brought together Kurdish delegations from Syria, Iraq, and Türkiye, and was attended by a US delegation.

Kurdish expert Kifah Mahmoud has suggested that factions within the PKK were likely behind the recent drone attacks on Peshmerga positions in northern Iraq.

Mahmoud told Asharq Al-Awsat that the attacks were linked to the ongoing peace initiatives in the region, both within Kurdish territories and at a broader geopolitical level.

“These developments are related to the peace processes, whether in the Kurdish regions or at the regional level,” Mahmoud said.

“We have positive negotiations between Türkiye and the PKK, as well as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) moving toward a peaceful stance with Türkiye. Most importantly, there’s a positive trajectory in relations between Baghdad and Erbil, along with ongoing regional negotiations between Washington and Tehran.”

Mahmoud believes that these efforts are not well-received by more hardline factions within the PKK. He pointed out that the PKK has long been divided into parallel wings operating under different names in various active regions, with some factions opposed to peace initiatives in Kurdish territories.

While some Kurdish officials have speculated that Türkiye may be indirectly involved in the attacks, Mahmoud dismissed this theory, instead attributing responsibility to the more radical PKK factions based in areas such as the Qandil Mountains and Sinjar, as well as near Amadiya.

He also rejected suggestions that the strikes were aimed at disrupting the formation of the Kurdistan Region’s new government, asserting that the main objective was to undermine the ongoing peace processes within Kurdish areas.