Bobby Ghosh

Erdogan Is Holding a Gun to His Own Head in Syria

Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has updated this unique bargaining technique by contriving to aim one pistol at the West even as it presses another to its own temple. Over the past two years, Erdogan has willfully antagonized Turkey’s partners in the North Atlantic Treaty…

Patriot Missiles and Erdogan’s Bluff

Given President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s penchant for political gamesmanship, it is hard to know how seriously to take Turkey’s request for US Patriot missile-defense batteries to be deployed on its southern border with Syria. The request was relayed last week to James Jeffrey, the American envoy for…

Corruption, Not Trump, Will Drive Iranian Protest Vote

A familiar charade is playing out in Tehran. Ahead of the elections to the Iranian parliament next month, those political factions likely to perform poorly are preemptively blaming the US. Expectation-management is the recourse of last resort for failing politicians everywhere, and blaming the…

The Ukrainian Plane and a ‘Chernobyl Moment’

The Islamic Republic’s volte face on the fate of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 has tempted Iran-watchers to speculate that the tragedy could be a “Chernobyl moment” for the regime in Tehran. Implicit in this analogy is the hope that the shooting down of the jetliner foreshadows the…

Qassem Soleimani's End... A Predictable Consequence of His Recklessness

Qassem Soleimani was never going to die peacefully in his bed. As leader of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and puppet-master of militias and terrorist groups across the Middle East, he had the blood of hundreds of thousands on his hands: Syrians, Iraqis, Yemenis, Lebanese,…

Trump Is the Least of NATO's Problems

It was meant to be a celebration of the 70th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But the mood at a gathering of the alliance’s leaders this week in London was anything but celebratory. There was no disguising the fact that NATO is in deep — even existential — trouble. Nothing…

The US Deals With a New Iranian Threat

Having played his aces too early on Iran’s nuclear program, President Donald Trump now has only a weak hand against a new threat from the Islamic Republic. The Pentagon is warning that the regime will buy advanced conventional weapons — like tanks and jet fighters — toward the end of next year,…

How the West Can Protect Iran’s Brave Protesters

The full extent of the protests that erupted across Iran over the weekend is hard to gauge, not least because the regime in Tehran has shut down internet access for most of the country. That decision suggests that the regime feels more threatened by the latest demonstrations of public anger than it…

Time for Europe to Close Ranks Against Iran’s Threats

The scales are finally falling from European eyes on Iran. In a joint statement on Monday, Germany, France and Britain held the Islamic Republic responsible for the recent attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, adding that “no other explanation is plausible.”, At the United Nations General Assembly…

Iran’s Oil Tanker Gambit Has Nowhere to Go

To judge by the propaganda of the Iranian regime, "the brave warriors of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had captured a Royal Navy guided-missile destroyer." Video footage shows the IRGC men rappelling down to a ship while other fearless comrades, looking on from speedboats racing…