Noah Smith

The Economics of Higher Education Are Only Getting Worse

Higher education in the US has been heading for a shakeout for a long time, and now it has come. Universities are facing a big, long-lasting funding crunch as demand for undergraduate education looks unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. That means schools need to find new ways to…

Automation Is a Race the US Can’t Afford to Lose

The US has traditionally been a nation of optimists about technology. But just when the world seems poised for a technologically-driven productivity boom, Americans have acquired a dour outlook about the march of progress. Growing fears that not everyone will share in the benefits is leading to…

Where Will You Go When a Robot Takes Your Job?

There's rising anxiety in the US about the future of work. And for good reason. As technology and trade disrupt existing systems of production, there’s a good chance that many workers will eventually lose their jobs. But instead of trying to freeze the economy in place, the government should help…

Big Government Is the Answer to America's Supply Problems

In the wake of the pandemic, Americans are rediscovering the importance of the economy’s supply side. But this won’t be a rerun of the 1980 — we’re learning that there’s a lot more to bolstering supply than tax cuts and deregulation. Economists, as most people know, tend to think of the world in…

How to Win the Global Battle for Microchip Dominance

The world is gearing up for a titanic battle over semiconductors. To secure its position in this most strategic of all industries, the US will have to weigh its strategy carefully and learn the lessons of the past. The right balance of support for both production and innovation will distinguish the…

Economists Don't Know Everything About the Economy

One of the biggest questions hanging over the US economy right now is whether the government is spending too much money. Some prominent economists are warning it's time to pump the brakes. President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package came on top of $3.1 trillion in similar outlays…

What Else Would You Be Willing to Do For $1 Million?

An innovative lottery program in Ohio looks like it might have succeeded in raising vaccination rates. If the result holds, it means a triumph for behavioral economics. And that will open up the possibility of using lotteries to lure people into doing all sorts of things. Less than 50% of the…

Covid Relief Hasn't Reached Everyone Who Needs It

The US economy is in better shape than many realize. But that doesn't mean the disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic haven't left behind some significant pain, including about 10 million people who are still out of work. As a nation, we owe it to our people to try to minimize the financial losses…

Two Big Things You Need to Understand About Inflation

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen caused some consternation last week when she raised the possibility that “interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure our economy doesn’t overheat.” Stock markets fell, and Yellen clarified her remarks by saying that she was neither forecasting nor…

Why America’s Population Advantage Has Evaporated

Fifteen years ago, population growth was one of America’s core advantages over other nations. With a fertility rate close to the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman — the level necessary for long-term population stability — the US had somehow avoided the birth-rate collapse that had…