Peter R. Orszag

Climate Change Will Force People to Move. We Need to Find Out Where They’ll Go

As the risk of severe climate change rises, and efforts to reduce carbon emissions ramp up, serious thought must also be given to the movement of people that climate change stands to provoke. This migration looks to be disruptive, but it may also significantly affect the long-term economic…

The US Makes Carbon Pricing More Complicated Than It Needs to Be

As the November climate conference in Glasgow approaches, debate over the value of carbon “border adjustment” mechanisms in many countries is picking up. Most puzzling is a US approach proposed in Congress. A border adjustment is a fee that a country would impose on the quantity of carbon…

Shrinking Population in China Brightens the Climate Outlook

The world has yet to apprehend the tectonic shift that will occur as China’s population starts to decline. That long-anticipated event did not occur in 2020, according to official data, but it will probably occur soon. From a climate perspective, the population decline is good news, since fewer…

Europe Is Poised to Set Climate Standards for the World

An emerging flashpoint in America’s relationship with the European Union is the question of who gets to set climate-related standards — on energy efficiency, emissions disclosure and other issues. An early indicator of the brewing conflict came last week, when US climate envoy John Kerry cautioned…

Covid Is Killing People in More Ways Than One

As if the 300,000 dead in the US from Covid-19 weren’t horrific enough, consider how many more have died from the pandemic’s indirect effects. Evidence from the Centers for Disease Control suggests mortality is higher in 2020 than expected for reasons beyond coronavirus infections. Most of the…

COVID-19 Fear Will Keep the World in a Slump

To date, the economic damage wrought by the pandemic has been mostly hidden by massive government subsidy. That’s about to change. And so the next few months will reveal the underlying economic impact of COVID-19 across the globe more clearly. My bet: As governments withdraw fiscal support, the…

China Is Overtaking the US in Scientific Research

Thirty years ago in December, the modern exchange of scholars between the US and China began. Since then, Chinese academics have become the most prolific global contributors to publications in physical sciences, engineering and math. Recent attempts by the US to curtail academic collaboration are…

Humanity Keeps Getting Smarter

When President Trump infamously declared his preference for immigrants from Norway, he was presumably unaware that he selected one of the few developed economies in the world experiencing a decline in average IQ. Norway and the other Nordic countries have seen an IQ downturn, admittedly from…