Kurdish Referendum: Between Turkish Threats and Iranian Caution

The president of Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region, Masud Barzani (left), meets with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Irbil. AFP file photo
The president of Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region, Masud Barzani (left), meets with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Irbil. AFP file photo
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Kurdish Referendum: Between Turkish Threats and Iranian Caution

The president of Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region, Masud Barzani (left), meets with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Irbil. AFP file photo
The president of Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region, Masud Barzani (left), meets with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Irbil. AFP file photo

President of the northern Iraqi Kurdish region Masoud al-Barzani has rejected international, regional and Iraqi pressure to cancel a planned independence referendum, stressing that the Kurdish people are prepared to pay the price for their freedom.

This comes as the Turkish National Security Council called Barzani to stop the referendum.

Barzani concluded his tour to support the independence referendum in the Kurdistan capital, Erbil, on Friday afternoon.

Addressing a rally of thousands of people, Barzani said that Erbil is open to have serious and friendly talks with Baghdad after the September 25 vote, but it is now too late to postpone it.

He stressed that Kurdistan is not a threat to its neighbors, as has been demonstrated over the past 25 years, but warned the Peshmerga would not allow anyone to feel “comfortable” and invade Kurdistan.

He directed the Peshmerga to be prepared to “pay whatever cost” necessary to protect Kurdistan, because they will not allow the region to fall to the enemy.

The president called upon all Kurdish people to head to the polls on Monday and decide their future, saying the road ahead is difficult but worth it.

“Either we live a life of subordination, or a free life,” Barzani told the rally adding that if they must die to achieve freedom, they will “die with honor."

Barzani said that the “free union” described in the Iraqi constitution has failed and that the path ahead is for the Iraqi and Kurdish nations to part.

Describing how Iraqi officials did not respect partnership in the new Iraq established after the 2003 US-led invasion, Barzani declared, “We won’t go back to a failed experience," reiterating: “We can no longer live with Baghdad."

Addressing a UN Security Council statement asking Kurdistan to postpone the vote out of fear it may affect the war on ISIS and the return of one million or displaced Iraqis who are currently in the Kurdistan Region, Barzani said Kurdistan’s coordination with Iraqi and global forces will continue.

“We will be more insistent in the fight against ISIS and will fight even stronger,” he said.

He also said the displaced Iraqis are the guests of Kurdistan.

Addressing Turkey and Iran, Barzani said: “You have punished us for 100 years. Are you not tired yet?”

He explained that it was too late to call off the vote despite global pressure, adding that he would not postpone the referendum to please foreign capitals.

Meanwhile, negotiations are still taking place to persuade Barzani on postponing any referendum, according to officials close to the discussions.

"Nothing is definitive yet. Discussions are continuing to try to offer him serious guarantees that will convince him to change his mind," said one official who did not wish to be identified.

On the Iranian front, AFP quoted a top official as saying that Major General Qassem Soleimani of the Revolutionary Guards' al-Quds Force returned to Kurdistan and met several officials.

The source said that Soleimani was in Sulaimaniyyah and will head to Erbil later.

"It's his last visit before the referendum to advise Kurdish officials that Iran is seriously hostile to it and warn them to call it off," the source said, adding that Soleimani promised Kurdish officials during his last visit that Iran is pressuring the Iraqi leadership so it accepts Kurdish demands and solves the issues of the budget, Peshmerga salaries and disputed areas.

In 2014, Baghdad decided to suspend payments to Barzani's Kurdish regional government of 17 percent of Iraq's national budget, worth about $12 billion, because of a dispute over oil exports.

Wages, along with those of Kurdish peshmerga fighters, made up 80 percent of the region's budget revenues.

On Thursday, the UN Security Council warned that the referendum was potentially destabilizing, urging warring parties to dialogue and compromise to address differences between the Iraqi government and the regional authorities.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi rejected the independence referendum under any form, even non-binding.

At a press conference in Baghdad, Abadi said that the poll was "rejected, whether today or in the future.”

Barzani also rejected an initiative from Iraqi President Fuad Massum, a Kurd, for negotiations.

In a document seen by AFP, Massum suggested starting UN-backed talks towards a deal with Baghdad.

An official of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Tuz Khurmatu, of Salaheddine, Atef Annajar said he will not allow the poll.

"We're ready for a fight to the death," said, adding however that "the leadership is trying to calm the situation."

Also, US presidential envoy to the coalition fighting ISIS Brett McGurk said on Friday that a referendum on Kurdish independence in northern Iraq “carries a lot of risks", according to Reuters.

McGurk told reporters: “The (Kurdish) referendum just carries an awful lot of risks and that’s not something the United States can control. In terms of the consequences of the referendum it’s not something that we can fully control, (it) just carries a lot of risks.”

Meanwhile in Russia, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his Iraqi counterpart Ibrahim al-Jaafari that Moscow supported Iraq’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

“The Russian side confirmed its constant support for the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq,” the ministry said in a statement.

Following his return from the 72nd UN General Assembly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held back-to-back meetings of Turkey’s cabinet and National Security Council during which the Kurdish referendum was discussed.

On Saturday, Turkish parliament will also convene to discuss the response to the referendum.

The council called on Barzani to stop the referendum. It warned the Kurdish government against holding a referendum on independence, saying such a move would create grave results.

In a statement released following a meeting at the presidential complex in Ankara, the council said that Turkey reserves all options arising from bilateral and international agreements if the referendum is held on September 25.

''It is strongly emphasized that this attempted Kurdish referendum is a grave mistake which directly threatens the security of Turkey and the peace, security and stability of the region as well as Iraq's territorial unity and territorial integrity,” the statement said.

Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said the referendum was a matter of national security for the country and Ankara would never accept a change of status in Iraq or Syria.

“An action that will change the status in Syria and Iraq is an unacceptable result for Turkey, and we will do what is necessary,” Yildirim said.



Will STC Keep its Gains in Yemen or Prepare for a Major Confrontation?

A supporter of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) stands in the back of a pickup truck in the Khor Maksar district of the second city of Aden on August 29, 2019. (AFP file)
A supporter of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) stands in the back of a pickup truck in the Khor Maksar district of the second city of Aden on August 29, 2019. (AFP file)
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Will STC Keep its Gains in Yemen or Prepare for a Major Confrontation?

A supporter of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) stands in the back of a pickup truck in the Khor Maksar district of the second city of Aden on August 29, 2019. (AFP file)
A supporter of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) stands in the back of a pickup truck in the Khor Maksar district of the second city of Aden on August 29, 2019. (AFP file)

Yemen's eastern provinces of Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra are passing through a critical phase amid the unprecedented unilateral military escalation carried out by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) that has been met with widespread regional and international condemnation.

Observers have said the STC cannot be allowed to impose a new status quo through the use of force no matter its justifications or claims.

They said the situation is not a passing development that can be ignored by the Saudi-led Arab coalition to restore legitimacy in Yemen and its supporters. Rather, this is a multifaceted political and security test where southern interests, the war against the Houthis and regional peace collide.

At the moment, the STC is opting to maneuver under pressure instead of leading the challenge head-on. In its recent statements, the council has resorted to political claims to justify its actions on the ground, speaking of "coordination" and "understanding concerns", reflecting a growing realization that its room to maneuver is shrinking and that it must take the right decision.

Saudi Arabia has made clear warnings over the situation, starting with a political warning, followed by an airstrike on Hadhramaut. The stern response means that a firm decision has been taken to prevent Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra from being dragged into an internal conflict or becoming an arena where agendas are imposed by force.

The STC is aware that ignoring the warnings puts it in a direct confrontation with a regional heavyweight - Saudi Arabia. The council does not have the political or military means to come out on top, so it has been advised to seriously deal with the warnings and avoid resorting to stalling tactics if it is considering taking the option of minimal losses to the gains it has amassed over the years.

Failing to heed the warning will mean it will have to come to heel through force, which will end in its major defeat.

The observers said the STC has landed itself in an unprecedented crisis. The council has justified its unilateral military actions as aimed at "protecting the southern cause" and that it was meeting the demands of the people. It also claimed that it sought to block Houthi smuggling routes and fight terrorist groups.

Despite everything, it is not too late for the STC to salvage the situation, as stated by Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman on Saturday. The STC can still end the crisis while taking minimal losses by immediately withdrawing its forces from Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra.

Should it stand its ground, the STC does not have the means to consolidate its presence in the two provinces, especially amid wide popular opposition, notably in Hadhramaut. Moreover, the STC lacks regional cover and international support that is a main condition for creating any security changes in critical areas.

So, it would seem that the best and easiest scenario would be for the STC to withdraw its forces, under such pretexts of "redeployment" or "security arrangements", to minimize its political losses, said the observers.

Should it ignore the warnings and choose to continue to escalate the situation, then the STC will lose its partnership with the legitimate Yemeni authorities, transforming into an obstacle in efforts to restore stability in the country. International sanctions may even be imposed on its leaders.

On the military level, the Arab coalition was clear in stating that it will not allow a new status quo to be imposed by force in eastern Yemen. Any escalation may be met with direct deterrence, meaning casualties on the ground that the STC cannot justify.

On the ground, the STC does not enjoy the support of the people in Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra and the continued escalation will deepen opposition to it in the south. The southern cause will transform from an issue that enjoys consensus to one that causes division.


Syrian Army Enters Latakia, Tartus after Attacks by Regime Remnants

Syrian Security forces stand atop a military vehicle in the city of Latakia, Syria, 28 December 2025. (EPA)
Syrian Security forces stand atop a military vehicle in the city of Latakia, Syria, 28 December 2025. (EPA)
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Syrian Army Enters Latakia, Tartus after Attacks by Regime Remnants

Syrian Security forces stand atop a military vehicle in the city of Latakia, Syria, 28 December 2025. (EPA)
Syrian Security forces stand atop a military vehicle in the city of Latakia, Syria, 28 December 2025. (EPA)

The Syrian Defense Ministry announced on Sunday the deployment of military forces in the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus in wake of an armed attack against security forces and civilians during recent protests.

Syrian television said the deployment was happening after "outlawed groups" carried out attacks against security forces and the people.

The military will work on preserving security and restoring calm in cooperation with the internal security forces, it added.

Earlier, local media reported that three people were killed and 48 wounded when gunmen affiliated with the ousted regime opened fire at civilians and security forces during protests in Latakia and Tartus.

State television said a member of the security forces was killed and others were injured while they were protecting protests in Latakia.

Head of the security forces in the Latakia province Abdulaziz al-Ahmed said the attack was carried out by terrorist members of the former regime.

The protests in Latakia were called for by Ghazal Ghazal.

Al-Ahmed added that masked gunmen were spotted at the protests and they were identified as members of Coastal Shield Brigade and Al-Jawad Brigade terrorist groups, reported the official SANA news agency.

The groups were responsible for bombings on the M1 highway and extrajudicial killings, it added.

A member of the groups was arrested in the Jableh countryside during a security operation, announced the Interior Ministry. Three other members were killed, while explosives and various weapons and ammunition were seized during the operation.

The Al-Jawad Brigade is affiliated with Suheil al-Hassan, a notorious former Syrian military officer.

In a statement, the Interior Ministry said the group was involved in assassinations, bombings and attacks against the Interior Ministry forces and the army.

It was planning attacks on New Year celebrations, it revealed. The detainee also revealed the locations of weapons caches used by the group.


Hezbollah Chief Accuses Lebanese Authorities of Working ‘in the Interest of What Israel Wants’

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem
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Hezbollah Chief Accuses Lebanese Authorities of Working ‘in the Interest of What Israel Wants’

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem on Sunday said moves to disarm the group in Lebanon are an "Israeli-American plan,” accusing Israel of failing to abide by a ceasefire agreement sealed last year.

Under heavy US pressure and fears of expanded Israeli strikes, the Lebanese military is expected to complete Hezbollah's disarmament south of the Litani River -- located about 30 kilometers from the border with Israel -- by the end of the year.

It will then tackle disarming the Iran-backed movement in the rest of the country.

"Disarmament is an Israeli-American plan," Qassem said.

"To demand exclusive arms control while Israel is committing aggression and America is imposing its will on Lebanon, stripping it of its power, means that you are not working in Lebanon's interest, but rather in the interest of what Israel wants."

Despite a November 2024 ceasefire that was supposed to end more than a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel has kept up strikes on Lebanon and has maintained troops in five areas it deems strategic.

According to the agreement, Hezbollah was required to pull its forces north of the Litani River and have its military infrastructure in the vacated area dismantled.

Israel has questioned the Lebanese military's effectiveness and has accused Hezbollah of rearming, while the group itself has rejected calls to surrender its weapons.

"The deployment of the Lebanese army south of the Litani River was required only if Israel had adhered to its commitments... to halting the aggression, withdrawing, releasing prisoners, and having reconstruction commence," Qassem said in a televised address.

"With the Israeli enemy not implementing any of the steps of the agreement... Lebanon is no longer required to take any action on any level before the Israelis commit to what they are obligated to do."

Lebanese army chief Rodolphe Haykal told a military meeting on Tuesday "the army is in the process of finishing the first phase of its plan.”

He said the army is carefully planning "for the subsequent phases" of disarmament.