Southeast Asia: The New Terrorist Destination

It seems that Southeast Asia may be the new destination of terrorists, who have suffered a series of defeats in Iraq and Syria. The leaders of these organizations have indeed started to transfer what remains of their funds and members to several of the region’s countries.

The first question we should ask is whether Southeast Asia is the only option available to ISIS and other extremist groups or are there other destinations that can become the base for their resurgent terror attacks around the world?

Africa definitely remains the second choice to become a base for terror training camps and the recruitment of new ISIS and al-Qaida members. The ground there, however, does not seem ready to receive these terrorists due to various factors that we will not get into.

Southeast Asia however enjoys the geographic and demographic elements that make it an exemplary choice that would compensate these two organizations the losses they have suffered in the Middle East.

Attractive region for terror

An in-depth exploration reveals that there are several factors that make Southeast Asia a suitable environment for future terrorism. The first of these factors is the high population density of the majority of these countries, especially Indonesia that has a population of 260 million. There, ISIS can easily win over thousands of sympathizers and gain new recruits.

The geography there is rife with tens of thousands of small islands that act as fortresses and caches for fugitive terrorists.

This is compounded by a lack of security coordination between Southeast Asian countries, which is in contrast to the coordination between extremist groups there, most notably those in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.

Furthermore, the poverty in those countries makes it easy for extremists to lure recruits with the promise of financial rewards. Racial and sectarian discrimination suffered by the Muslim youth also make them easy prey for terrorist recruitment and brainwashing.

The Philippines and Hapilon’s death

The clashes between the Philippine military and ISIS in the city of Marawi have drawn attention to the rise of the terrorist threat in Southeast Asia. The Philippine defense minister announced in October that ISIS chief in Southeast Asia and Abou Sayyaf group leader Isnilon Hapilon was killed in the clashes. He was blacklisted by the United States as one of its most wanted terrorists.

The four-month Marawi battle, where ISIS seized four neighborhoods, highlighted fears that the group would seek to establish a regional base south of the archipelago, reported Agence France Presse.

How did ISIS infiltrate Catholic-majority Philippines and not other predominantly Muslim Middle Eastern or Asian countries?

A report by the Stratfor American geopolitical intelligence platform examines how ISIS inspired Hapilon to unite in 2014 the ranks of extremist organizations in the region under the ISIS banner. Stratfor said these organizations as a blend of local criminal gangs operating under the guise of “jihad”. Hapilon and other extremist leaders in the Philippines gained in the meantime recognition by operating under the ISIS name and adopting its tactics.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of Philippines’ southern Mindanao island is its strategic location on the marine border with Indonesia and Malaysia. This makes it a prime destination for Indonesian and Malaysian extremist fugitives.

The Rohingya crisis and Asian terror

One of the most important questions that is being raised recently is whether the arrival of extremists in Southeast Asia is connected to the suffering Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims are enduring at the hands of the Buddhist government.

We have definitely detected serious ISIS, Qaida and other extremist attempts to portray the developments in Myanmar as a war against Islam and Muslims. They have all come to agree that Myanmar will become the scene of the major battle, said Jay Solomon of the Washington Institute for Near East policy.

This was demonstrated in a statement released in September by the Qaida higher command that called on all “jihadist brothers in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and the Philippines to head to Myanmar to aid our Muslim brothers.” It urged them to “make the necessary preparations, including training and the like, to resist this oppression and injustice.”

In a separate statement, Qaida’s Shura council declared that Buddhists had occupied Rakhine state from where Islam was spread to Burma some 200 years ago. Buddhists then changed Burma’s name to Myanmar where its Muslim population was oppressed.

Does this mean that Qaida is more present in Myanmar than ISIS?

In order to properly read the Southeast Asian extremist scene, we must address the security and political developments there and the rise of fundamentalism.

As the Rohingya crisis escalated, Buddhists and their embassies throughout the Middle East and Southeast Asia came under attack. In September, molotov bottles were thrown at the Myanmar embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia. This prompted police in Pakistan to bolster security around Myanmar diplomatic missions in Islamabad.

In Bangladesh, officials said that they have not yet witnessed the arrival of foreign fighters to support the Rohingya, but they have confirmed that the threat is very high.

The above all means that “jihadist” groups have learned how to exploit civil wars and social unrest to spread their roots and raise the number of their recruits.

The crisis has reached such a dire point that a senior Bangladeshi official declared that the situation in Myanmar is a “man-made disaster.”

Qaida returns to the fray

The most disturbing analyses of the developments in Southeast Asia said that the situation has gone beyond ISIS and instead brought al-Qaida back into the picture.

Several security, counter-terrorism and intelligence officials in the region stated that various Qaida branches in the islands surrounding Myanmar had in recent years trained Rohingya on “jihad”.

The Qaida problem here is greater than the Rohingya crisis. It is seeking to regain from ISIS the top spot as the most dangerous extremist group. But why is Southeast Asia such an important strategic target for it?

The area has never been free of pro-Qaida groups and it still retains sleeper cells that can play a very dangerous role should they be ordered to act. In addition, Qaida knows that the United States has a historic military presence in Southeast Asia, which makes their positions strategic targets. Furthermore, observers will notice that Southeast Asia is a main passage for the world’s oil trade, making it another Qaida target.

This prompted the American Foreign Affairs magazine to ask if Qaida will make a return to the scene.

It essentially said that the US was too preoccupied with defeating ISIS to notice that al-Qaida was regrouping. Observers in the report wondered if it will achieve its goal of once again being labeled as the most dangerous terrorist group. Some stated however that the US and other countries were effective in their war against terrorism, giving them reason to believe that al-Qaida was in real and constant decline.

Upcoming terror

It is certain that Southeast Asia may be confronted with a threat that is worse than al-Qaida and ISIS. Foreign Affairs said that the organization is different than what it was a decade ago and Southeast Asia may witness the rise of al-Qaida under a new form, one which brings together ISIS’ orphans who are longing to avenge their humiliating losses in the Middle East.

Their arrival in Southeast Asia is connected to stability and political unrest and extremist radical ideology will never be eliminated as long as social injustice remains and conflicts and wars in Asia, Africa and the Middle East rage on.

The 13-year civil war in Syria has roared back into prominence with a surprise opposition offensive on Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities and an ancient business hub. The push is among the opposition’s strongest in years in a war whose destabilizing effects have rippled far beyond the country's borders.
It was the first opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016, when a brutal air campaign by Russian warplanes helped Syrian President Bashar Assad retake the northwestern city. Intervention by Russia, Iran and Iranian-allied Hezbollah and other groups has allowed Assad to remain in power, within the 70% of Syria under his control.
The surge in fighting has raised the prospect of another violent front reopening in the Middle East, at a time when US-backed Israel is fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both Iranian-allied groups.
Robert Ford, the last-serving US ambassador to Syria, pointed to months of Israeli strikes on Syrian and Hezbollah targets in the area, and to Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon this week, as factors providing Syria’s opposition groups with the opportunity to advance.
Here's a look at some of the key aspects of the new fighting:
Why does the fighting at Aleppo matter? Assad has been at war with opposition forces seeking his overthrow for 13 years, a conflict that's killed an estimated half-million people. Some 6.8 million Syrians have fled the country, a refugee flow that helped change the political map in Europe by fueling anti-immigrant far-right movements.
The roughly 30% of the country not under Assad is controlled by a range of opposition forces and foreign troops. The US has about 900 troops in northeast Syria, far from Aleppo, to guard against a resurgence by the ISIS extremist group. Both the US and Israel conduct occasional strikes in Syria against government forces and Iran-allied militias. Türkiye has forces in Syria as well, and has influence with the broad alliance of opposition forces storming Aleppo.
Coming after years with few sizeable changes in territory between Syria's warring parties, the fighting “has the potential to be really quite, quite consequential and potentially game-changing,” if Syrian government forces prove unable to hold their ground, said Charles Lister, a longtime Syria analyst with the US-based Middle East Institute. Risks include if ISIS fighters see it as an opening, Lister said.
Ford said the fighting in Aleppo would become more broadly destabilizing if it drew Russia and Türkiye— each with its own interests to protect in Syria — into direct heavy fighting against each other. -
What do we know about the group leading the offensive on Aleppo? The US and UN have long designated the opposition force leading the attack at Aleppo — Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known by its initials HTS — as a terrorist organization.
Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, emerged as the leader of al-Qaeda's Syria branch in 2011, in the first months of Syria's war. His fight was an unwelcome intervention to many in Syria's opposition, who hoped to keep the fight against Assad's brutal rule untainted by violent extremism.
Golani early on claimed responsibility for deadly bombings, pledged to attack Western forces and sent religious police to enforce modest dress by women.
Golani has sought to remake himself in recent years. He renounced his al-Qaeda ties in 2016. He's disbanded his religious police force, cracked down on extremist groups in his territory, and portrayed himself as a protector of other religions. That includes last year allowing the first Christian Mass in the city of Idlib in years.
What's the history of Aleppo in the war? At the crossroads of trade routes and empires for thousands of years, Aleppo is one of the centers of commerce and culture in the Middle East.
Aleppo was home to 2.3 million people before the war. Opposition forces seized the east side of the city in 2012, and it became the proudest symbol of the advance of armed opposition factions.
In 2016, government forces backed by Russian airstrikes laid siege to the city. Russian shells, missiles and crude barrel bombs — fuel canisters or other containers loaded with explosives and metal — methodically leveled neighborhoods. Starving and under siege, the opposition surrendered Aleppo that year.
The Russian military's entry was the turning point in the war, allowing Assad to stay on in the territory he held.
This year, Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo have hit Hezbollah weapons depots and Syrian forces, among other targets, according to an independent monitoring group. Israel rarely acknowledges strikes at Aleppo and other government-held areas of Syria.

Southeast Asia: The New Terrorist Destination