China’s Financial System Poses Stability Risk, Says IMF

 Financial security and supervision of banks in China has improved, says the IMF, but ‘risky lending’ is happening in other quarters. Photograph: Reuters
Financial security and supervision of banks in China has improved, says the IMF, but ‘risky lending’ is happening in other quarters. Photograph: Reuters
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China’s Financial System Poses Stability Risk, Says IMF

 Financial security and supervision of banks in China has improved, says the IMF, but ‘risky lending’ is happening in other quarters. Photograph: Reuters
Financial security and supervision of banks in China has improved, says the IMF, but ‘risky lending’ is happening in other quarters. Photograph: Reuters

Fears that China risks being the cause of a fresh global financial crisis have been highlighted by the International Monetary Fund in a warning about the growing debt-dependency of the world’s second-biggest economy.

China should prioritize financial stability above development goals, as pursuit of regional growth targets and helping firms avoid heavy job losses had led to a surge in debt, particularly at local government level, the IMF said.

Noting a lack of coordination and inadequate systemic risk analysis in a report released on Wednesday, the IMF also recommended the formation of a financial stability sub-committee comprising the central bank and three financial regulatory agencies, and an increase in staff for the banking watchdog.

Since the IMF’s last assessment of the Chinese financial sector’s resilience to shocks and contagion in 2011, two concerns remain - credit growth remains high and the expansion of wealth management products (WMPs), said Ratna Sahay, deputy director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department.

“Risks are large,” Sahay told reporters during an online briefing. “Having said that, the authorities are really aware of risks and they are working proactively to contain these risks.”

The IMF report said that while China has been taking steps to address its debt risks, reining in excessive credit growth will require a de-emphasis on high GDP projections in national plans that have spurred local governments to set high growth targets.

“The system’s increasing complexity has sown financial stability risks,” the IMF’s assessment said. “Credit growth has outpaced GDP growth, leading to a large credit overhang. The credit-to-GDP ratio is now about 25% above the long-term trend, very high by international standards and consistent with a high probability of financial distress.

“As a result, corporate debt has reached 165% of GDP, and household debt, while still low, has risen by 15 percentage points of GDP over the past five years and is increasingly linked to asset-price speculation. The buildup of credit in traditional sectors has gone hand-in-hand with a slowdown of productivity growth and pressures on asset quality.”

But the near-term prioritization of social stability seems to depend on credit growth to sustain financing to firms even when they are non-viable, it said.

“The apparent primary goals of preventing large falls in local jobs and reaching regional growth targets have conflicted with other policy objectives such as financial stability,” the report said.

“Regulators should reinforce the primacy of financial stability over development objectives,” the fund said.

China’s credit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is very high by global standards and consistent with a high probability of financial distress, the IMF said, citing an estimate from the Bank for International Settlements.

The IMF specifically warned that the rapid development of financial products for investors could pose grave risks.

“We are also concerned that in a very innovative financial system such as China‘s, new products can emerge very quickly and very rapidly become large and popular, and potentially a systemic risk,” said James Walsh, deputy division chief of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department.

“Better coordination among supervisors is therefore essential to make sure that these risks are contained, and that everyone understands what the risks to these products are,” he said.



Gold Extends Gains as Trump Tariffs Fuel Safe Haven Flows

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
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Gold Extends Gains as Trump Tariffs Fuel Safe Haven Flows

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo

Gold prices rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, but traded below the recent all-time highs, as uncertainty around US President Donald Trump's tariff plans continued to fuel economic growth concerns and safe haven flows into bullion.

Spot gold gained 0.6% at $2,913.79 an ounce as of 0714 GMT. It hit a record high of $2,942.70 last week.

US gold futures added 0.9% to $2,925.50.

"Trump's disruptive modus operandi, aggressive rhetoric and tariffs - whether actual or threatened - could unravel global trade and intricate supply chains," said Nikos Tzabouras, senior financial writer at trading platform Tradu, Reuters reported.

"With uncertainty surrounding the global economy and the broader geopolitical landscape in the Trump 2.0 era, gold is set to remain a natural beneficiary of risk-off flows and central bank buying."

Since taking office last month, Trump has swiftly redrawn the global trade battlefield with a series of tariffs, while plans are already in motion for sweeping reciprocal tariffs, aimed squarely at any nation that taxes US products.

"Gold continues to benefit from the uncertainty surrounding the US. government's tariff policy. Central bank buying should also continue to provide support, even if there is no new data on this," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

The market's focus has now shifted to the US Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes due on Wednesday for clues into the central bank's interest rate trajectory.

"Price gains are also supported by growing expectations that the Fed will cut rates in 2025 - a sentiment that gained further traction among traders after last week's disappointing US retail sales figures," Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades, said.

Bullion benefits from geopolitical and economic uncertainties, as well as rising price pressures, but higher interest rates diminish the asset's allure.

Spot silver fell 0.9% to $32.50 an ounce. Platinum jumped 0.9% to $985.20 and palladium climbed 1.6% to $978.00.