Likelihood of US-Iranian Confrontation in 2018

Hezbollah parade in Beirut. AFP file photo
Hezbollah parade in Beirut. AFP file photo
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Likelihood of US-Iranian Confrontation in 2018

Hezbollah parade in Beirut. AFP file photo
Hezbollah parade in Beirut. AFP file photo

A US strategic report issued by the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) that operates under the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warned of a likelihood of military confrontation between the United States backed by its allies in the region and Iran.

In its tenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey, the CFR identified eight top conflict prevention priorities for the US in the year ahead, highlighting armed confrontations between the US and Iran as serious international concerns.

It wrote about “an armed confrontation between Iran and the United States or one of its allies over Iran's involvement in regional conflicts and support of militant proxy groups, including the Yemeni Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah.”

According to the survey, which draws on the feedback of 436 government officials and foreign-policy experts, “among the eight new contingencies in this year's survey are the risks of intensified clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, and increased violence and political instability in the Sahel region of Africa.”

The survey points out at an elevated likelihood of US-Iranian confrontation over a range of explosive issues, starting from Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, to its competing for influence in Syria and Iraq, to its support for Yemeni, Lebanese, and Palestinian militant groups that the United States and US allies fiercely oppose.

In addition to Iran, the survey refers to a possible military conflict involving the United States, North Korea, and North Korea’s neighbors.

Paul Stares, the director of CFR’s Center for Preventive Action, said: “They’re the two most volatile, brewing crises at the moment.”

He noted that while last year’s poll had flagged “a severe crisis in North Korea” over its nuclear-weapons program as a first-tier risk, displacing the Syrian Civil War as the premier conflict to watch in the survey, what’s new this year are serious concerns over direct military hostilities between North Korea and the United States—and implicitly about those hostilities escalating to the first exchange of nuclear weapons in history.



Thailand and Cambodia Sign New Ceasefire Agreement to End Border Fighting

A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit attending a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit attending a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
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Thailand and Cambodia Sign New Ceasefire Agreement to End Border Fighting

A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit attending a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit attending a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)

Thailand and Cambodia on Saturday signed a ceasefire agreement to end weeks of armed combat along their border over competing claims to territory. It took effect at noon local time.

In addition to ending fighting, the agreement calls for no further military movements by either side and no violations of either side’s airspace for military purposes.

Only Thailand employed airstrikes in the fighting, hitting sites in Cambodia as recently as Saturday morning, according to the Cambodian defense ministry.

The deal also calls for Thailand, after the ceasefire has held for 72 hours, to repatriate 18 Cambodian soldiers it has held as prisoners since earlier fighting in July. Their release has been a major demand of the Cambodian side.

The agreement was signed by the two countries’ defense ministers, Cambodia’s Tea Seiha and Thailand’s Nattaphon Narkphanit, at a checkpoint on their border after lower-level talks by military officials met for three days as part of the already-established General Border Committee.

The agreement declares that the two sides are committed to an earlier ceasefire that ended five days of fighting in July and follow-up agreements and includes commitments to 16 de-escalation measures.

The original July ceasefire was brokered by Malaysia and pushed through by pressure from US President Donald Trump, who threatened to withhold trade privileges unless Thailand and Cambodia agreed. It was formalized in more detail in October at a regional meeting in Malaysia that Trump attended.

Despite those deals, the two countries carried on a bitter propaganda war and minor cross-border violence continued, escalating in early December to widespread heavy fighting.

Thailand has lost 26 soldiers and one civilian as a direct result of the combat since Dec. 7, according to officials. Thailand has also reported 44 civilian deaths from collateral effects of the situation.

Cambodia hasn’t issued an official figure on military casualties, but says that 30 civilians have been killed and 90 injured. Hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated from affected areas on both sides of the border.

Each side blamed the other for initiating the fighting and claimed to be acting in self-defense.

The agreement also calls on both sides to adhere to international agreements against deploying land mines, a major concern of Thailand. Thai soldiers along the border have been wounded in at least nine incidents this year by what they said were newly planted Cambodian mines. Cambodia says the mines were left over from decades of civil war that ended in the late 1990s.

Another clause says the two sides “agree to refrain from disseminating false information or fake news.”

The agreement also says previously established measures to demarcate the border will be resumed and the two sides also agree to cooperate on an effort to suppress transnational crimes.

That is primarily a reference to online scams perpetrated by organized crime that have bilked victims around the world of billions of dollars each year. Cambodia is a center for such criminal enterprises.


Russia Attacks Kyiv with Missiles and Drones, Wounding 11 ahead of Ukraine-US Meeting

Firefighters work at the site of a private home that went up in flames after it was hit by a Russian drone during a night of attacks on Kyiv, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, November 29, 2025. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Firefighters work at the site of a private home that went up in flames after it was hit by a Russian drone during a night of attacks on Kyiv, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, November 29, 2025. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
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Russia Attacks Kyiv with Missiles and Drones, Wounding 11 ahead of Ukraine-US Meeting

Firefighters work at the site of a private home that went up in flames after it was hit by a Russian drone during a night of attacks on Kyiv, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, November 29, 2025. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Firefighters work at the site of a private home that went up in flames after it was hit by a Russian drone during a night of attacks on Kyiv, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, November 29, 2025. REUTERS/Thomas Peter

Russia attacked Ukraine's capital with missiles and drones early Saturday morning, wounding at least 11 people a day before talks between Ukraine and the US, local authorities said.

Explosions boomed across the capital for hours as ballistic missiles and drones hit the city. The attack began in the early morning hours Saturday and was continuing as day broke.

The attack came as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares to meet with US President Donald Trump on Sunday for further talks in an effort to end the nearly four-year-old war. Zelenskyy said they plan to discuss issues including security guarantees and territorial issues in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Two children were among those injured in the attack, which affected seven locations across the city of Kyiv said the head of Kyiv's City Military Administration Tymur Tkachenko in a statement on Telegram, The Associated Press said.

A fire broke out in an 18-story residential building in the Dnipro district of the city, and emergency crews rushed to the scene to contain the flames.

A 24-story residential building in the Darnytsia district was also hit, Tkachenko said, and more fires broke out in the Obolonskyi and Holosiivsky districts.

In the wider Kyiv region, the strikes hit industrial and residential buildings, according to Ukraine's Emergency Service. In the Vyshhorod area, emergency crews rescued one person found under the rubble of a destroyed house.


Russia Lashes Out at Zelensky ahead of New Trump Talks on Ukraine Plan

Trump is trying to broker an agreement between the warring sides to end Europe's worst conflict since World War II. Jim WATSON, Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP/File
Trump is trying to broker an agreement between the warring sides to end Europe's worst conflict since World War II. Jim WATSON, Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP/File
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Russia Lashes Out at Zelensky ahead of New Trump Talks on Ukraine Plan

Trump is trying to broker an agreement between the warring sides to end Europe's worst conflict since World War II. Jim WATSON, Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP/File
Trump is trying to broker an agreement between the warring sides to end Europe's worst conflict since World War II. Jim WATSON, Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP/File

Volodymyr Zelensky is due to meet President Donald Trump in Florida this weekend, but Russia accused the Ukrainian president and his EU backers Friday of seeking to "torpedo" a US-brokered plan to stop the fighting.

Sunday's meeting to discuss new peace proposals comes as Trump intensifies efforts to end Europe's worst conflict since World War II, one that has killed tens of thousands since February 2022, AFP said.

The 20-point plan would freeze the war on its current front line but open the door for Ukraine to pull back troops from the east, where demilitarized buffer zones could be created, according to details revealed by Zelensky this week.

Ahead of the talks, AFP journalists reported several powerful explosions in Kyiv on Saturday, and authorities warned of a possible missile attack.

“Explosions in the capital. Air defense forces are operating. Stay in shelters!" Kyiv's mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram.

Ukraine's air force announced a countrywide air alert and said drones and missiles were moving over several regions including Kyiv.

Zelensky's office said earlier that a meeting with Trump is planned for Sunday in Florida, where the US leader has a home.

Trump, speaking to news outlet Politico, said about Zelensky's plan that "he doesn't have anything until I approve it", adding: "So we'll see what he's got."

Zelensky meanwhile said he held telephone talks on Friday with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz and a host of other European leaders.

A spokesperson for Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the leaders "reiterated their unshakeable commitment for a just and lasting peace for Ukraine and the importance that talks continue to progress towards this in the coming days".

Security guarantees

The new plan formulated with Ukraine's input is Kyiv's most explicit acknowledgement yet of possible territorial concessions and is very different from an initial 28-point proposal tabled by Washington last month that adhered to many of Russia's core demands.

Part of the plan includes separate US-Ukraine bilateral agreements on security guarantees, reconstruction and the economy. Zelensky said those were changing on a daily basis.

"We will discuss these documents, security guarantees," he said of Sunday's meeting.

"As for sensitive issues, we will discuss (the eastern region of) Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and we will certainly discuss other issues," he added.

Russia signaled its opposition to the plan ahead of the Florida talks.

The Kremlin said Friday that foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov had held telephone talks with US officials, and deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov criticized Zelensky's stance.

Russia accuses EU

"Our ability to make the final push and reach an agreement will depend on our own work and the political will of the other party," Ryabkov said on Russian television.

"Especially in a context where Kyiv and its sponsors -- notably within the European Union, who are not in favor of an agreement -- have stepped up efforts to torpedo it."

He said the proposal drawn up with Zelensky input "differs radically" from points initially drawn up by US and Russian officials in contacts this month.

He said any deal had to "remain within the limits" fixed by Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin when they met in Alaska in August, or else "no accord can be reached".

Zelensky said this week there were still disagreements between Kyiv and Washington over the two core issues of territory and the status of the Zaporizhzhia plant.

Washington has pushed Ukraine to withdraw from the 20 percent of the eastern Donetsk region that it still controls -- Russia's main territorial demand.

It has also proposed joint US-Ukrainian-Russian control of Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear plant, which Russia seized during the invasion.

Zelensky said he could only give up more land if the Ukrainian people agree to it in a referendum, and he does not want Russian participation in the nuclear plant.

But Moscow has shown little inclination to abandon its hardline territorial demands that Ukraine fully withdraw from Donbas and end efforts to join NATO.

Zelensky said Ukrainian negotiators were not directly in touch with Moscow, but that the United States acted as intermediary and was awaiting Russia's response to the latest proposal.

"I think we will know their official response in the coming days," Zelensky said.

"Russia is always looking for reasons not to agree," he added.