Despite low revenue growth of 2.3 % in 2017 from about 3 percentage points in 2016, GCC banks achieved 6% profit growth due to declining LLPs and cost reductions, BCG’s annual banking performance study revealed.
“GCC banks are adapting well to a slowing revenue growth regime and profits climbed more than twice as strong through reduced loan loss provisions as well as tight cost management,” said Dr. Reinhold Leichtfuss, Senior Partner & Managing Director at BCG's Middle East office.
The main customer segments – retail and corporate banking – grew revenues at rates of 3 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively.
The upside is that banks were still able to grow profits with a rate more than twice as high as revenues and also that loan loss provisions (LLPs) were reduced once again. Moreover, most banks managed to reduce their operating expenses, leading to a cost reduction of 1 percent on aggregate for the large GCC banks.
“The 2017 BCG Banking Performance Index includes 44 banks from across the GCC, capturing about 80 percent of the total regional banking sector,” said Peter Vayanos, head of the Financial Institutions practice for BCG ME.
International banks saw strong top line growth close to 5 percent in 2017 and an even stronger recovery in profits in 2017; however, remain far behind GCC banks regarding the index level.
In 2017, Kuwait banks led the pack in terms of growth figures, with 4.6 percent in revenues and 15 percent in profits. While in 2016 many banks across all countries in the GCC experienced a negative development in profits, in 2017, the vast majority of banks grew profits stronger than revenues except for Oman.
“This is a pattern we have been seeing in more mature banking markets, such as in Europe or the US, for a number of years,” said Vayanos “The two largest markets, UAE and Saudi Arabia, are naturally closer to the average, with UAE still close to zero revenue growth the second year in a row. The positive message is the healthy profit growth of UAE banks, at 4.6 percent,” said Dr Leichtfuss. “The revenue growth stagnation stems from a tighter risk appetite as well as portfolio optimization initiatives of banks which seek to enhance risk-adjusted returns.”
As for LLPs, 2017 showed healthy improvement of 2.7 percent in contrast to 2016, when LLPs had catapulted upwards. UAE and Oman experienced the strongest declines of 8.4 and 16.5 percent respectively, followed by Saudi Arabia with 6.5 percent.
Moreover, operating expenses were well controlled in the GCC countries. Even the UAE banks reduced this figure by 2.7 percent in total. All countries remained significantly below the long-term cost CAGR of 11 percent.
In 2016, GCC banks concluded a three-year decline in growth, down from a high level in 2014. In the long term, however, GCC banks experienced a halving of overall growth rates. In 2017, Kuwait was the only country in which the growth rate bounced back from low level.
In 2017, retail banking growth shows strongly diverging trends across the GCC countries around the average of 3 percent revenue growth and 14 percent profit growth. Retail banking in Saudi Arabia grew revenues by 7 percent and profits by 24 percent, while UAE banks in total saw a decline in retail revenues by 2 percent but a profit growth of 15 percent. Bahrain banks had to accept a decline of 3 percent in both retail revenues and retail profits.
