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Goldman Sachs: OPEC Oil Request Won't Reverse Stockpiles

Goldman Sachs: OPEC Oil Request Won't Reverse Stockpiles
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Goldman Sachs: OPEC Oil Request Won't Reverse Stockpiles

Goldman Sachs: OPEC Oil Request Won't Reverse Stockpiles

Brent crude futures hit a one-month low on Tuesday after Bloomberg cited people familiar with the matter saying the US government has quietly asked Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC producers to increase oil production by about 1 million barrels a day.

Although the proposed increase is somewhat large, Goldman Sachs considered the increase requested by the US insufficient to raise commercial oil inventories in industrialized countries, which recently fell to negative levels below the five-year average.

But Goldman’s global head of commodities research, Jeff Currie, said an increase of that magnitude won’t prevent stockpiles from diminishing in the second half of this year.

“It’s not enough,” he said on the sidelines of the S&P Global Platts’ annual crude oil summit in London.

He downplayed the impact of an increase of 1 million barrels per day, insisting stockpiles would continue to edge lower in the second half of this year.

Oil demand is surging higher in 2018 and consumption in China is probably stronger than the market’s anticipating, indicated Currie.

Brent crude futures rose 9 cents to settle at $75.38 a barrel, a 0.12 percent gain. It touched a low of $73.81, its lowest since May 8.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 77 cents to settle at $65.52 a barrel, a 1.2 percent gain. Earlier, WTI hit a session low of $64.22, the lowest since April 10.

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to meet in Vienna on June 22 to decide whether the group and a number of producers outside of the country, including Russia, will increase production to offset any potential supply shortfalls from Iran and Venezuela.

Sources with knowledge of the matter said on May 25 that Saudi Arabia and Russia were already considering an increase in oil production from OPEC and beyond by about 1 million bpd.

On Tuesday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said after a meeting with OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo in Vienna that Russia and OPEC share a common view on the current oil market situation. He declined to provide further information.

On the other hand, chief executive of Indian private refiner Nayara Energy, a key buyer of Iranian oil, announced the company is prepared to replace Iranian oil if required under US sanctions and hopes to settle dues owed to Tehran for past purchases ahead of a November deadline.

Nayara, formerly known as Essar Oil, would leverage the vast network of its promoters Russia's Rosneft and trader Trafigura, to replace Iranian oil, if required under the US sanctions.

The company operates a 400,000 bpd sophisticated refinery at Vadinar in the country's west coast.

In April, Nayara's CEO B. Anand said the company was aiming to buy 120,000 bpd of oil from Iran in 2018/19, the same as the previous year, adding his company was receiving the same concessions as state-owned Indian refiners for Iranian oil purchases.

Anand also said he "most likely" expected Nayara to repay outstanding debt to Iran before the Nov. 4 deadline when the180-day "wind-down period" of US sanctions on Iran would end.

The company settled about 2 billion euros in dues to Iran to cover previous oil purchases and still owes around 500 million euros.

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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.

Business

Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.

Business

Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.